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    Position Battle: The Bullpen


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins entered the offseason targeting relief help as a top priority, to Terry Ryan's own acknowledgement. He rightfully viewed the bullpen as a weakness needing to be addressed, especially in light of the way contenders across the league have been upgrading.

    Well, here's what they have done:

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    They let Blaine Boyer, Brian Duensing and Neal Cotts – who provided 25 percent of the team's total relief innings last year – walk as free agents, and replaced them with... nobody.

    Well, that's not entirely accurate. They signed several relievers to minor-league contracts. But here in the middle of February we still have not seen the Twins add one single pitcher on a major-league contract. Even for a team that routinely eschews free agency and opts for internal development, that is rare.

    It looks as though Minnesota will build around a back-end bullpen core of Glen Perkins, Kevin Jepsen, Casey Fien and Trevor May. In a seven-man unit, that leaves three remaining spots, with plenty of names competing to earn a job.

    Today we'll run through the various candidates to round out the relief corps, with the front-runners at the top of the list. Given the turnover that we're likely to see in the bullpen throughout this season, it's a good idea to familiarize yourself with all of these guys.

    Why Fernando Abad Will Win A Job

    I remain convinced that Terry Ryan will end up signing one of these free agent lefty relievers before the season gets underway, but as things stand, Abad is the only southpaw in the mix for the Twins with any kind of substantial experience in a big-league bullpen.

    He has 258 career appearances, and over the past three seasons with Oakland and Washington, the 30-year-old has put up a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while averaging 8.1 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Those are all very solid numbers. His 2015 was not good, however, as he was plagued by the long ball and saw his velocity drop across the board. The A's went 16-46 in his appearances, suggesting that they didn't view him as a high-leverage arm to be deployed with a lead.

    Another particularly troubling aspect of Abad is that he has never been all that good against left-handed hitters, who have a .254/.304/.411 career line against him (by contrast, Duensing has a .238/.289/.325 career line against LH hitters). So while he may end up as the top lefty in the pen, Abad could hardly be viewed as a situational specialist.

    Why Michael Tonkin Will Win A Job

    He's out of options. The time has come for the Twins to finally give Tonkin a legitimate look in the majors, because if they don't, someone else is going to.

    Tonkin has been a top relief prospect in the system for many years, racking up tons of strikeouts in the minors with a power fastball that registers in the mid-90s. His numbers during a few short stints in the majors haven't been all that shabby, but for whatever reason, the Twins have never committed to letting him ride. Last year, they were busy prioritizing veteran journeymen like Blaine Boyer and Tim Stauffer. It was odd.

    One thing that will work in Tonkin's favor this time around is that there's no Rule 5 pick sitting at the end of the bullpen, as was the case with J.R. Graham last year. This means that even if the Twins don't feel confident enough in Tonkin to routinely use him in close games, they can hide him a little better while trying to help him polish his secondary pitches.

    Why Ricky Nolasco Will Win A Job

    I'm not sure the veteran Nolasco would consider this to be "winning" anything, but if he loses out in the rotation competition, where he appears to be at a distinct disadvantage, he will almost certainly open the season as a swing man in the bullpen. The Twins can't send him to the minors and still owe him too much money to simply cut him.

    Nolasco been a starter almost exclusively in his career, but the transition to long relief shouldn't be all that challenging. If he performs well, he can serve as a solid depth option when the Twins find themselves needing reinforcements in the rotation.

    Why Ryan O'Rourke Will Win A Job

    When you look at his overall numbers, O'Rourke doesn't stand out much as a prospect. A former 13th-round pick, he has a 4.15 career ERA in the minors and didn't debut in the majors until age 27.

    When you drill a little deeper, though, you find that throughout his pro career, O'Rourke has been flat-out lethal against left-handed hitters. In six minor-league seasons, he has struck out 40 percent that he has faced while often bordering on unhittable. Last year with the Twins, though his final numbers weren't very good, he still held lefty swingers to a .171 average with 19 strikeouts in 49 plate appearances.

    He needs to be used in a very specific way in order to be effective, but as a pure match-up southpaw, there's no better option in this group. Given Abad's weakness in that department, O'Rourke feels like a necessity. But can they find room for him?

    Why Ryan Pressly Will Win A Job

    Paul Molitor was apparently quite impressed with Pressly last year before the righty went down with a lat strain that cost him most of the season. "I don’t think people realize how well (Pressly) was throwing the ball before he got hurt last year, and now he’s healthy," the manager told Charley Walters of the Pioneer Press in January.

    Indeed, Pressly was averaging a career-high 94.2 MPH with his heater and flashing a sharp slider, although neither of those things manifested in a particularly impressive K/BB ratio. Pressly has been around the organization for three years now since being selected as a Rule 5 pick and it's time to take a good long look at him. However, if it comes down to a battle between him and Tonkin, I would guess that Pressly will open in Triple-A.

    Why Brandon Kintzler Will Win A Job

    Like Abad, Kintzler offers something that is in short supply among this group: experience. He has made 172 appearances for the Brewers over the past six years, and was at one point a pretty decent setup man.

    He's coming off injuries, though, and would need to be added to the 40-man roster. If he does well in Ft. Myers, I could see the final spot coming down to him and O'Rourke or another lefty. At that point it just depends on how comfortable Molitor is without a designated lefty suppressor in the late innings. (Though, to his credit, Kintzler has actually done quite well in that regard.)

    Why J.R. Graham Will Win A Job

    Injuries look to be Graham's only path to the roster. He hung around in the Twins bullpen for the entirety of last season thanks to his status as a Rule 5 draftee, but he was never all that impressive and now the Twins have no obligation to carry him.

    His stand-out velocity and ongoing adaptation to relieving make him interesting. It sounds like he really committed himself to getting fit during the offseason, shedding 30-plus pounds and thinning down to the point where one person who saw him at TwinsFest described him to me as looking "almost emaciated."

    Will Graham's transformed physique help him cut down on the amount of hard contact opponents are able to generate? We'll see, but regardless of how he performs in camp it's difficult to envision him surpassing both Tonkin and Pressly.

    Why Taylor Rogers Will Win A Job

    Rogers has come up through the minors as a starter, but he's more intriguing as a left-handed relief option thanks to his demolition of same-sided hitters. Last year in Triple-A, Rogers held lefties to a .177/.209/.193 line. The prior in Double-A it was .217/.268/.287.

    He hasn't thrown a pitch in the majors and hasn't really had a chance to adjust to a relief role, but he looks very equipped to fill a specific need for the Twins. He is also already on the 40-man roster after being added in November.

    Why Alex Meyer Will Win A Job

    Meyer's 2015 season was undeniably a huge mess, but it's important to remember that one year ago he was being ranked as a Top 30 prospect in all of baseball by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. The premium velocity and filthy stuff that earned him such acclaim remain intact, so Meyer ought to be viewed as a major wild-card in the bullpen if and when he can straighten out his mechanics.

    The consistent struggles from start to finish last year suggest that he's not likely to have everything figured out in time for Opening Day, but Meyer should not be discounted as a potential impact call-up somewhere along the line in 2016.

    Why Nick Burdi Will Win A Job

    He's the best pure relief prospect in the system, capable of touching triple digits with his overpowering fastball that complements a nasty slider. But like Meyer, Burdi endured a tumultuous 2015 season. He opened the campaign as Chattanooga's closer, but control problems led to his being demoted back to Single-A about halfway through.

    Burdi did finish on a strong note, pitching well in the final month after returning to Double-A and then turning in a lights-out performance in the Arizona Fall League. Still, it's hard to see the Twins pushing him to the majors before he has demonstrably improved his command.

    Why Mike Strong Will Win A Job

    Given the depth of their system, space on the 40-man roster is at a premium for the Twins. In order to claim Strong off waivers from the Marlins, they risked losing another left-handed pitcher that they value in Logan Darnell. That alone says something for what they think of Strong.

    He has sometimes shown shaky control in the minors and has no meaningful experience above Double-A, but he does have this going for him: strikeouts. He has averaged 9.6 K/9 in the minors, differentiating him from the field somewhat in an area that ought to be a main focus.

    Others In The Mix: Mason Melotakis, Pat Dean, J.T. Chargois, Jake Reed, Aaron Thompson, Dan Runzler, Buddy Boshers

    Everybody in that group has better than a snowball's chance if he comes into camp and really opens some eyes, which speaks to the breadth of this competition. Melotakis, Chargois and Dean carry a slight edge since they're on the 40-man and wouldn't require a move, but they seem like long shots.

    Going over this list of 19 names, and considering them a little more deeply, it becomes easier to understand why the front office was so passive in its approach to the market. They're handcuffed to some extent with Tonkin and Nolasco, and once you account for the other four locks, that limits flexibility to evaluate a number of deserving candidates.

    This might turn out to be a rather experimental year for the Minnesota bullpen. That's probably not good news in the short term, but could pay off in 2017 and beyond.

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    TR mentioned Rogers in his convo with Atteberry on GO last week. I'm ~75% sure it was in reference to the LH relief situation. Did anyone else hear that?

     

    He's said that several times, so I'm sure he did.

     

    I've been told by a few people that Rogers went to the AFL and the intent was for him to work out of the bullpen. That didn't happen. Not sure why, other than the Twins already sent three other relievers (Burdi, Reed, Hildenberger). 

     

    I think Ryan Pressly can be a solid part of the back-end of the bullpen. He should definitely make the team unless the last injury affects his pitching.

     

    I also think O'Rourke is underrated. He's scary good when used correctly as a LOOGY. However, the Twins/Molly don't appear to want to use him in that role - he faced waaaay too many right-handers last season.

     

    Regarding O'Rourke, when he was brought up, he was used pretty much only against lefties, except in blowouts, and he pitched really well against them. Once they acquired Cotts as the 2nd lefty, O'Rourke was used sparingly, and just in blowouts, and he really struggled because he was facing mostly right-handers. They would just give him the ninth. So, I don't think looking at his overall numbers is too important. (at least in determining if he can be a LOOGY)

     

    Regarding O'Rourke, when he was brought up, he was used pretty much only against lefties, except in blowouts, and he pitched really well against them. Once they acquired Cotts as the 2nd lefty, O'Rourke was used sparingly, and just in blowouts, and he really struggled because he was facing mostly right-handers. They would just give him the ninth. So, I don't think looking at his overall numbers is too important. (at least in determining if he can be a LOOGY)

    I'm not sure if this is quite true, Seth.  O'Rourke faced 3 RHB in his debut, was notably allowed to face a couple RHB in a game he helped blow against the Yankees, etc., all before the Cotts acquisition.

     

    And we're not looking at his numbers judging his performance, but rather judging if they will trust him and how they would use them.

     

    EDIT: Just peeked at his game log, and he did face a larger share of RHB after Cott's acquisition.  But even before Cotts, only 61% of his batters faced were LHB, well short of LOOGY standards like Randy Choate (80%). And after Cotts, he barely pitched at all -- 8 appearances, 6 IP between the Cott's acquisition and when we were eliminated from the postseason (~40 team games).

     

    And the fact that we acquired Cotts, even after O'Rourke showed promise as a LOOGY, suggests perhaps we don't like a strict LOOGY in our pen and we may not trust O'Rourke.

    Edited by spycake

    O'Rourke presents the same problem Duensing did. Sure he's good against lefties but he's gonna have to face righties, and he can't get them out. Neither can Rogers actually, at least not as a AAA starter (.830 OPS against). There just isn't enough roster space for a true LOOGY.

    Edited by Willihammer

    Ryan, for whatever reason, basically did nothing to improve on the bullpen and went his tradition dumpster diving to piece together a junk bullpen. 

     

    Burdi and the younger arms aren't ready yet.  They have yet to prove anything in the minors and some want them up w/ the big club? 

     

     

     

    O'Rourke presents the same problem Duensing did. Sure he's good against lefties but he's gonna have to face righties, and he can't get them out. Neither can Rogers actually, at least not as a AAA starter (.830 OPS against). There just isn't enough roster space for a true LOOGY.

     

    Deunsing wasn't even good against lefties.  O'Rourke isn't all that impressive either. 

     

    He's junk.

     

    O'Rourke presents the same problem Duensing did. Sure he's good against lefties but he's gonna have to face righties, and he can't get them out. Neither can Rogers actually, at least not as a AAA starter (.830 OPS against). There just isn't enough roster space for a true LOOGY.

    The Cardinals have had no problem rostering Randy Choate the last 3 seasons, etc.  With a 7 man bullpen standard, that will probably swell to 8 at times, and I see no reason why there wouldn't be room for a LOOGY.

     

    Other teams have similar sized bullpens too, so everybody has a short bench and can't pinch hit so easily.

     

    Seems like an easy way for a suspect bullpen to improve, to smartly deploy a strict LOOGY.

    Edited by spycake

    Pressly should be more of a lock than Fien, and I'm concerned that the team is going to put too much confidence in Jepsen. He wasn't doing well in TB and with his age, I think it's better than 50/50 that his declining results with TB will be what we see instead of spike we saw with the Twins.

     

    But my biggest concern is that Molitor will still run out relievers based on seniority, not talent. He can't keep running guys out in high leverage jams because of "experience". The young guys with the ability to miss bats need to be used when you most need bats missed, not in mop up duty. Fien should NEVER be on the mound with the bases loaded and less than two outs. Unless the game's already a blowout.

     

    The Cardinals have had no problem rostering Randy Choate the last 3 seasons, etc.  With a 7 man bullpen standard, that will probably swell to 8 at times, and I see no reason why there wouldn't be room for a LOOGY.

     

    Other teams have similar sized bullpens too, so everybody has a short bench and can't pinch hit so easily.

     

    Seems like an easy way for a suspect bullpen to improve, to smartly deploy a strict LOOGY.

    Cards starters also threw 60 more IP than Twins starters last year. Or the difference of about one full time reliever. I know its technically possible to deploy a strict loogy, on a team with a good starting staff. But that does not describe the Twins and it also comes with tradeoffs (namely, a shorter bench).

    The article mentions 18 people going for 3 spots.  Seth's comment suggests Tonkin and Nolasco will earn two of them, at least early on.

     

    So we have 16 people interviewing for one job.

     

    It begs a few questions for me:

     

    -If you have a pen that was bottom third, borderline bottom quartile in the league last year with the cream not really rising between these sixteen to eighteen guys, doesn't that speak volumes about the level of talent we have interviewing?  Now I get that 3-4 are on minor league deals, and a few will get DFA'd, and a few others may need another month but still. 

     

    -Do we have enough reps in spring training, or even in April to evaluate the best relievers?  I would argue that if a star does emerge from outside of the younger controlled guys like Burdi, Reed, etc.   Aren't they at least as likely to emerge with another team? 

     

    -It seems like our strategy has been to dumpster dive in FA for the pen.  But at the same time make significant investment in the draft aimed at finding relievers.  I wonder at what point the Twins will look back and evaluate the opportunity costs of so many early picks (1st through 5th rounds) as well as the hit rate on these picks.  

     

    2008 - First round (Gutierrez)

    2009 - 2nd and 3rd round (Bullock and Tootle)

    2011 - 3rd round (Williams)

    2012 - first round, second x 2, and 4th  (Bard, Melotakis, Chargois, Jones)

    2014 - second round, third round, and fifth round (Burdi, Cederoth, and Reed)

     

    Some of these are still a little young.  But so far the yield has not matched the investment and given you can sign above average relievers for $3-5M a year on shorter deals, I wonder if these are smart investments.  Heck, wouldn't the signing bonuses of these picks vs. signing FA relievers be in the same ballpark

     

    Deunsing wasn't even good against lefties.  O'Rourke isn't all that impressive either. 

     

    He's junk.

     

    1st part is correct, but O'Rourke was very impressive vs lefties.  .171/.292/.268 slash line vs lefties.  The problem is he's a LOOGY in the truest sense of the term

     

    Cards starters also threw 60 more IP than Twins starters last year. Or the difference of about one full time reliever. I know its technically possible to deploy a strict loogy, on a team with a good starting staff. But that does not describe the Twins and it also comes with tradeoffs (namely, a shorter bench).

    The starting staff should be better in 2016, though.  No aces, but just a full season from a workhorse like Santana instead of Mr. "5 IP/start" Pelfrey is going to boost your starter innings.

     

    And regardless of starters, I don't think the Twins are optimally deploying the bottom half of their bullpen.  There's no need to have 3-4 generic average-ish pitchers with a target full season usage of 60 IP as they Twins have been rostering lately.  Until a better overall reliever is ready and available, they'd almost certainly be better off axing one of those interchangeable average-ish guys, rostering O'Rourke for 30 targeted innings of strict LOOGY deployment, and spreading the remaining 30 innings over the other pitchers, designating at least one to be more of a long reliever anyway and preferably having one or more with the option to send to AAA for a fresh arm when needed.

     

    The Twins weren't even carrying a long reliever to soak up innings for long stretches late last season, and it showed -- early exits by the starter resulted in a parade of interchangeable 1-inning guys (including a miscast O'Rourke) for no discernible benefit.

     

    I'm just annoyed with the fixation on being lefthanded. If Chargois or Burdi or Meyer or one of the other RH pitchers can do a better job, overall, they should have the roster spot. That seems like that would be best for the team.

    You'll get no argument from me, especially when we seem to target/keep "token" LHP like Duensing and Abad.

     

    But until those other RH pitchers are ready, there's no shame in swapping out one of your interchangeably mediocre relief arms for a potential LH weapon.

     

    The starting staff should be better in 2016, though.  No aces, but just a full season from a workhorse like Santana instead of Mr. "5 IP/start" Pelfrey is going to boost your starter innings.

     

    I think that saying the Twins' lack of quality starters taxed the Twins' pen in 2015 and thus they were bad, is one of those false excuses.

     

    Fact:  Other than May (who logged in 83.3 IP as a starter and 31.3 as a reliever) no Twins RP pitched more than 65 innings last season.  That's not much of a work load.  They just were not good enough...

     

    The starting staff should be better in 2016, though.  No aces, but just a full season from a workhorse like Santana instead of Mr. "5 IP/start" Pelfrey is going to boost your starter innings.

     

    And regardless of starters, I don't think the Twins are optimally deploying the bottom half of their bullpen.  There's no need to have 3-4 generic average-ish pitchers with a target full season usage of 60 IP as they Twins have been rostering lately.  Until a better overall reliever is ready and available, they'd almost certainly be better off axing one of those interchangeable average-ish guys, rostering O'Rourke for 30 targeted innings of strict LOOGY deployment, and spreading the remaining 30 innings over the other pitchers, designating at least one to be more of a long reliever anyway and preferably having one or more with the option to send to AAA for a fresh arm when needed.

     

    The Twins weren't even carrying a long reliever to soak up innings for long stretches late last season, and it showed -- early exits by the starter resulted in a parade of interchangeable 1-inning guys (including a miscast O'Rourke) for no discernible benefit.

     

    Not to mention, inexplicably keeping J.R. Graham on the roster all year at a 63, almost all low leverage innings did not help (4.95 ERA).  Hiding him all year did not help

     

    I am really glad we didn't pick up and roster another reliever this year.  2014 was Graham's third go round at AA and he had a 5.58 ERA across 73 IP.  This isn't the type of guy you target and roster all year in a pennant race.

     

    The starting staff should be better in 2016, though.  No aces, but just a full season from a workhorse like Santana instead of Mr. "5 IP/start" Pelfrey is going to boost your starter innings.

     

    And regardless of starters, I don't think the Twins are optimally deploying the bottom half of their bullpen.  There's no need to have 3-4 generic average-ish pitchers with a target full season usage of 60 IP as they Twins have been rostering lately.  Until a better overall reliever is ready and available, they'd almost certainly be better off axing one of those interchangeable average-ish guys, rostering O'Rourke for 30 targeted innings of strict LOOGY deployment, and spreading the remaining 30 innings over the other pitchers, designating at least one to be more of a long reliever anyway and preferably having one or more with the option to send to AAA for a fresh arm when needed.

     

    The Twins weren't even carrying a long reliever to soak up innings for long stretches late last season, and it showed -- early exits by the starter resulted in a parade of interchangeable 1-inning guys (including a miscast O'Rourke) for no discernible benefit.

    Graham was the long reliever. Stauffer at the early part of the year.

     

    Obviously if the starting staff improves, a lot of this is moot. I hope that's the case but I'm not as optimistic as you about that. I think we need to prepare for a lot of games that don't finish neatlyi with LOOGY, setup, closer, etc. That means flexibility from relievers. That means a lot of lefties facing righties and vice versa. You can only shuttle players to and from AAA so much to compensate for that. And the strength of the org quite clearly is RHRP, not LHRP. So if a LH reliever isn't among the 7 or 8 best relievers, so be it.

    Edited by Willihammer

     

    I think that saying the Twins' lack of quality starters taxed the Twins' pen in 2015 and thus they were bad, is one of those false excuses.

     

    Fact:  Other than May (who logged in 83.3 IP as a starter and 31.3 as a reliever) no Twins RP pitched more than 65 innings last season.  That's not much of a work load.  They just were not good enough...

     

    Well, Jepsen had 69 if you add TB and Perk had 57 and missed three weeks.  

     

    I would say the Twins starters didn't help.  Graham made it tricky and they were also not good enough

    I believe the bullpen should be better simply because Jepsen and May will be there from day 1, and I believe the rotation will be stronger overall. It's not just about the number of IP by a reliever or pen, but when they are needed, for how long, how often days in a row, etc.

     

    And no...I still don't May there. But for now, I get it.

     

    By this time next year, he'll maybe mid-season this year, we're going to look at someone like Burdick and Rogers and Melotakis and just love the stuffing out of our bullpen. There are some good options here. There are good options on the way.

     

    But my problem remains, what about the meantime? Please don't tell me there isn't financial room and flexibility to have added a couple solid, proven arms for $10-12M that could actually make a real difference. And that money spent, probably for only 2 year deals, 3 max, would not only not handcuff the club, but would probably be tradeable assets.

     

    Graham was the long reliever. Stauffer at the early part of the year.

    Graham was actually on the DL for a bit late in the season, and in any case, he wasn't used as a long reliever (or much at all) over the season's final months.  Stauffer was never really used that way (perhaps due to ineffectiveness), he maxed out at 2 innings, often fell short of that, and ultimately was only on the roster for 6 weeks anyway.

     

    Obviously if the starting staff improves, a lot of this is moot. I hope that's the case but I'm not as optimistic as you about that. I think we need to prepare for a lot of games that don't finish neatlyi with LOOGY, setup, closer, etc. That means flexibility from relievers. That means a lot of lefties facing righties and vice versa. You can only shuttle players to and from AAA so much to compensate for that. And the strength of the org quite clearly is RHRP, not LHRP. So if a LH reliever isn't among the 7 or 8 best relievers, so be it.

    No argument here, but we didn't acquire such a pitcher this winter, and it's unlikely that our internal RHRP will be ready (and trusted) by opening day.

     

    If deploying O'Rourke can help us squeeze out some early season victories in the meantime, so be it.  If he's only displacing another interchangeably mediocre RP like Abad, Kintzler, or even Tonkin if they are truly sour on him, it's not that big of a deal.

    I believe Rogers, Meyers and Burki will all make significant positive impacts on the Twins relief corps in 2016. Maybe not at the start of April, but one or two will be up by the start of June. The bullpen will be OK – perhaps middle of the league.

     

    But it should be good enough to reach the playoffs. I'm excited. Think about this for power: Vargas at 1B; Dozier at 2B, Escobar at SS; Plouffe at 3B; Rosario in LF, Kepler in CF, Sano in RF; Murphy at CA and Park at DH. Double-digit power threats from eight of nine positions, and 20+ homer threats from six positions. Granted, Buxton and Mauer are on the bench, but it could happen in 2016.

     

    (I know, I know, that's not what this thread is all about).

     

    But this power could make up for some of the shortcomings of the relief corps. Just a thought.

    RP is also the one position Ryan has consistently traded for at the deadline. It seems that his philosophy is it's a position that makes sense to upgrade mid-season. I'm not saying they should ignore April-July, but that the bullpen is more fluid than many parts of the roster. If 1/4 of the roster are relievers, it seems like 1 will be on the DL at almost any given point.

     

    RP is also the one position Ryan has consistently traded for at the deadline. It seems that his philosophy is it's a position that makes sense to upgrade mid-season. I'm not saying they should ignore April-July, but that the bullpen is more fluid than many parts of the roster. If 1/4 of the roster are relievers, it seems like 1 will be on the DL at almost any given point.

     

    I agree that has historically been the approach.  I just don't get why we need to wait 100 games into the season to upgrade a spot that clearly needs it.  

     

    It has been management/ownerships approach and they talk about it every offseason.  Something to the effect of "we can add mid-season", as if that is somehow a supportive statement.

     

    It has always rubbed me the wrong way.  We will see where we are at after 100 games and then decide at that point if we should make an investment.

     

    RP is also the one position Ryan has consistently traded for at the deadline.

    Consistently?  Jepsen and Cotts last year, then... Todd Jones back in 2001?  I guess Bill Smith added Rauch, Fuentes, and Capps, and to be fair the Twins didn't really have a need for another reliever in most of those TR years, but then again, I'm not sure we have enough data to say much here.

     

    I'm not sure if it's anything more than the fact that relievers are generally cheaper to acquire than other positions, especially now that draft pick compensation has mostly been removed from them.

     

    I agree that has historically been the approach.  I just don't get why we need to wait 100 games into the season to upgrade a spot that clearly needs it.  

     

    It has been management/ownerships approach and they talk about it every offseason.  Something to the effect of "we can add mid-season", as if that is somehow a supportive statement.

     

    It has always rubbed me the wrong way.  We will see where we are at after 100 games and then decide at that point if we should make an investment.

    To be fair, a lot of teams take that kind of approach, which is why you don't see many trades of significance from March until July.  But it seems that sometimes the Twins apply this philosophy as long as November through July...

    Regression is the key point.  Problem is, the Twins bullpen last year was pretty solidly mediocre no matter how you slice it.  So if a good performance like Jepsen regresses down, and Fien or Perkins regress back up, you're still left with the same overall mediocre performance.

    IIRC last year's bullpen consisted of more than Perkins, Jepson, and Fein.

    To be fair, a lot of teams take that kind of approach, which is why you don't see many trades of significance from March until July. But it seems that sometimes the Twins apply this philosophy as long as November through July...

    It is hard to say because I don't follow other teams. But we knew we had a hole, said it was a priority, and did nothing about it. Knowing that we may address it later.

     

    Just because other teams make trades at the deadline doesn't mean they knew they had a hole in March. Maybe they got hit with injuries or a guy that can usually be counted on faltered.

    Meyer, Rogers, Burdi, Williams, Graham, Pressly, Chargois, Melotakis. I have no idea if or which of these arms will be good, but this is the best crop in memory upon which to bet the field.

     

    Hopefully Nolasco can be better than Stauffer, Boyer, etc. Seems realistic. Then maybe if he reestablishes value he can be traded for something, especially if one or two of the field look reliable.

     

    The veteran scrap heap signings are less exciting, but perhaps one or two can equal 2013-2014 Duensing or Fien. At least none will be holding roster spots long term, blocking younger players with upside. Many of this winter's signings will fail and tie up salary for a few years.

     

    Perkins, Jepsen, May: all realistically capable of being good. Sure, one could be materially worse or get injured. Twelve months ago, nobody predicted Greg Holland was going to be bad, then hurt. If anyone did expect it, then they were probably critical of the plan to use Madson as his back-up.

     

    It's unclear which signing this winter the Twins should have made. Lots of used Camrys selling for BMW prices. Some will be good, many will prove to be regrettable, I can't predict which. I'd rather bet on the field.




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