One Stat to Watch: Brian Dozier's Batting Average

If one believes that the minor league track record is useful in determining future success, most believe that Dozier can increase his batting average beyond the .240s that he’s hit the last two seasons.

Obviously rookie league stats mean little, but Dozier hit .349 in 58 games there. He began his first full season at Beloit and in 39 games he hit .278. He was promoted to Ft. Myers where he finished the 2010 season and started the 2011 season. In 142 games, he hit .291. He finished that 2011 season in New Britain here he hit .318 in 78 games. He didn’t have much success in his 48 games in Rochester (early and then late in the season) in the 2012 season, hitting just .232.

As we recall, Dozier struggled in his initial taste in big league ball. In 84 games, he hit just .232 and got on base just 27% of the time. He took over second base in 2013 and in 147 games, he hit .244/.312/.414 (.726) with 33 doubles, four triples and 18 home runs. The overall numbers don’t jump out at you, but a closer look shows that he made some adjustments right before June and took off after that, especially in the power department.

2014 was his best season. He hit just .242, but he got on base at a .345 clip and slugged .416 with 33 doubles and 23 home runs. He became an instigator at the top of the lineup.

He was terrific in terms of getting on base, and he hit for as much power as any second baseman in the game. However, the question remains, can he increase his batting average without it affecting his on-base skills or his power production?

Isolated Discipline (IsoD) is an interesting statistic for me, especially for a top of the order type of hitter. It is simply on-base percentage minus batting average. It shows how often a batter walks or gets hit by pitches. In other words, how often can he get on base when he doesn’t get a hit. His 2014 IsoD jumped to an impressive .103 which is tremendous. I always figure anything over .080 is pretty good.

Isolated Power (IsoP) is a very similar statistic. It doesn’t take advanced mathematical capabilities to compute either. It is simply the slugging percentage minus the batting average. It is a rough number to show how much extra-base power a guy has. Dozier’s 2014 IsoP of .174 is very good for a middle infielder and a top of the order guy. That’s no surprise since he has hit so many doubles and home runs.

Dozier hit .242/345/.416 in 2014. Let’s just say that he increased his batting average to .275, something his minor league statistics indicate isn’t out of the realm of possibility, and maintains his 2014 levels. That would give a season stat line of .275/.378/.449, and give him an OPS of .827. That would be a very strong statistical season.

So there is the background for this article, but I go back to my initial question. Can Brian Dozier increase his batting average without it affecting his on-base skills or his power production.

The general manager, Terry Ryan, is certain that he can. “I’m sure he can. There’s no reason he isn’t going to hit for a higher batting average, in our opinion. I don’t think it’s going to affect his power or his on-base. He’s had two decent years, but he can be better.”

Dozier seems to believe that he can as well. He said, “Absolutely. That’s what I go back to. At the end of the year, me and Bruno sat down and talk about that. One way, if you look at the minor leagues, I averaged probably 15-20 base hit bunts. The past two years (it) is probably about three or four, total. I’ve got to start implementing that more. You look at that, it’s a way to kind of increase it.”

But in addition to being able to increase his batting average, when asked about his approach or strategy, Dozier said that it really shouldn’t change too significantly. “As far as approach, I don’t really think if you hit for high average the power needs to come down. I’m going to keep my aggressiveness. There are certain thinks that I’ve been working on, in situations, and I think that’s come with being my fourth year in now.”

Experience can and usually does help with the development of overall game. Terry Ryan believed that Brian Dozier is pretty good now, but that there is no reason that he can’t and won’t continue to get better. “He’s shown the power. He’s shown the base stealing ability. He’s been one of those guys that has those streaks, and his consistency can increase. There’s no question that he can become a better player.”

One way for Dozier to do that is to do what he did on Wednesday when he went 3-3. Not so much the results, though anyone would happily take three hits no matter how they come, but with his approach.

Ryan said, “He took at-bats and he squared up balls (Wednesday). He didn’t do the dead pull stuff. We know he can do it. Now, whether or not you want to trade off with the power. But on base percentage and his ability to drive the baseball and his strength, I would say that’s conducive to him raising the average somewhere along the line.”

Using the whole field and getting on base is a terrific thing, but Dozier thinks that the situation in the game will always dictate what he can or should do, and what his approach at the plate will be. With his increased power production, third basemen aren’t playing him in as much anymore. He could probably get more bunt hits and want to do that, but not every day. Not in every circumstance.

“It’s a good thing that they aren’t playing me in because I’m a “pull” hitter. I get a lot of hits down the line and in the hole. A lot of times last year, I had a lot of situations where I could drop one down if he was playing me back. The game dictates the game itself. For instance, a runner at first base, we’re down by a couple runs and you’ve got a chance to tie it up. You know you can walk into first for a single (if you bunt it), but I think my job was kind of different last year, trying to be that RBI guy, and trying to hit the two-run homer, or have second and third with Joe coming up.”

Paul Molitor really likes Dozier’s approach at the plate. Following Dozier’s three-hit game the manager was asked about it. “He stayed on a couple of pitches back up the middle. He’s a guy that most of his power is pull, but obviously when we can use more of the field especially deeper in the count, it’s going to be advantageous for him to increase opportunities to get on base. It was good to see. And even in his last at-bat, taking the ball out to right center. Yeah, we all know he can hit a fastball. We all know he’s got real good pop. Just looking for ways to find ways to get to the next level. He’s learned the strike zone much better. Now he’s just going to figure out how to be a little better deep in the count, cut down on the strikeouts and give himself a chance.”

Speaking of his power, after his home run on Thursday, he was asked if he was going to start showing off his power to right centerfield. Dozier chuckled and said, “I had a smart guy once tell me, Josh Willingham, the shortest distance usually is always to left field. Why would I try to hit them to right?”

It’s strange at this stage in baseball’s statistical evolution to talk about batting average being "One Stat To Watch" for a player, but it sems that increasing his batting average is something that will show that Brian Dozier is taking that next step as a ballplayer. I thought Molitor summed it up the best when he said that he needs to use the whole field and find a way to cut down on the strikeouts. Yes, it’s a fine line and the next sentence will sound funny. As Dozier says, he doesn’t want to lose his aggressiveness while at the same time continuing to show the patience that has allowed him to walk so much.