Offseason Blueprint: Generics Over Brand Names

Tom Froemming · November 20, 2019

I also do not want to trade Larnarch for Boyd. I like Boyd, but Larnach is going to be a solid hitter for 10 years. I like Jeffers, but he can be replaced in the Twins farm system, plus we have Garver. How about Jeffers and Goodman for Boyd?

I'm guessing by Goodman you actually mean Nick Gordon, but correct me if I'm wrong.

Gordon has very little trade value right now. Those two plus Duran or Balazovic doesn't quite get the job done either. Those two plus Arraez works, but he's my starting second baseman in this blueprint. Not really a guy I'm looking to get rid of under the circumstances.

Three years of a young, but proven, MLB starter who appears to have the potential to reach new heights isn't going to come cheap.

nicksaviking · November 20, 2019

I must be the only one who looks at Boyd and sees a guy I don't want to pursue in a trade. Is it because he strikes out a bunch of guys? I look at everything else and go "he's league average... at best."

I'd like to do better than that if we're trading the names proposed, and I hate any trade within the division.

I want Boyd.

But only after he’s non-tendered. He is or at least should be a slider/FB bullpen guy and I think he’ll be lights out when he finally makes that move. No interest as a starter though; minimizing his poor off speed pitches worked for about two months last year until everyone caught on.

rv78 · November 20, 2019

In response to your Generics verses Brand Names idea of thinking..... Most of the time the Generics are not as good of quality as the Brand Names. There is a reason why they are cheaper. I once worked at a milk plant where they made ice cream and cottage cheese. Both products were cheapened up for the lesser known brands including Generics by adding air and cheaper ingredients.

In reality, using this analogy only shows you know nothing about the difference between Generics and Brand Name products.

Sorry, but 99 times out of 100 you'll get what you pay for. My educated guess is that the $5.99 detergent will get your dishes cleaner without using as much product as the one that costs $3.69.

If you take this rediculous analogy one step farther then we can argue that dumpster diving for the bottom of the talent pool will win you Championships. WOW!

Tom Froemming · November 20, 2019

In response to your Generics verses Brand Names idea of thinking..... Most of the time the Generics are not as good of quality as the Brand Names. There is a reason why they are cheaper. I once worked at a milk plant where they made ice cream and cottage cheese. Both products were cheapened up for the lesser known brands including Generics by adding air and cheaper ingredients.
In reality, using this analogy only shows you know nothing about the difference between Generics and Brand Name products.

Sorry, but 99 times out of 100 you'll get what you pay for.

Air is a very important thing I like to put into my body. More air the betterer, I always say.

Brock Beauchamp · November 20, 2019

While I don't agree with parts of it, this is a really well thought-out and prepared argument about how to approach the 2020 season.

Really well done, Tom. Super well done. You convinced me on more than a few points.

DavidGould · November 20, 2019

I would be seriously disappointed if this is the twins roster. Not a lot of change in the lineup OR Rotation. Berrios needs to be our 3 Starter he’s no ace and we just really need a 3B and change

tarheeltwinsfan · November 20, 2019

Then he says no, and signs for the highest bid, which will surely be better than that. Why even waste his agent's time?

Exactly. And that is why the Twins won't sign him.

I'm guessing by Goodman you actually mean Nick Gordon, but correct me if I'm wrong.

Gordon has very little trade value right now. Those two plus Duran or Balazovic doesn't quite get the job done either. Those two plus Arraez works, but he's my starting second baseman in this blueprint. Not really a guy I'm looking to get rid of under the circumstances.

Three years of a young, but proven, MLB starter who appears to have the potential to reach new heights isn't going to come cheap.

Thank you for your gentle acceptance of my mistake. I did mean Gordan, instead of Goodman. . I had been at work since 7 am when I posted this at 6:30 pm. My day at work was too long. At least I was posting on TD when I was tired and error-prone, instead of drafting answers to my clients' lawsuits.

diehardtwinsfan · November 20, 2019

I mean, strikeouts are pretty rad.

Just for fun, let's take a look at some of Boyd and Stephen Strasburg's 2019 numbers.

MB: 30.2 K%, 6.4 BB%
SS: 29.9 K%, 6.7 BB%

MB: .307 BABIP, 18.2 HR:FB, 88.4 mph avg. exit velo, 34.7 hard hit %
SS: .274 BABIP, 16.2 HR:FB, 87.3 mph avg. exit velo, 33.8 hard hit %

A big difference between these two is that Strasburg gets a lot more grounders (51.1 GB% vs. 35.6). But, just imagine if Boyd's BABIP and HR:FB ratio could come down, which doesn't seem to be all that unreasonable given the exit velo and hard hit rates.

So buying into Boyd certainly takes some belief that he can improve upon some of his results on batted balls, but if he were to accomplish that, he could be a beast.

I was driving the bandwagon on Boyd this summer, though I've soured a bit. I guess the question to me is whether or not our analytics guys see something that can bring that HR rate down a bit. If they can, I think he's worth the prospect cost... and he will be expensive, but well worth the price.

I believe Detroit was looking for something like Lewis the last time. Boyd had a bad second half, but I doubt their asking price drops too much.

diehardtwinsfan · November 20, 2019

In response to your Generics verses Brand Names idea of thinking..... Most of the time the Generics are not as good of quality as the Brand Names. There is a reason why they are cheaper. I once worked at a milk plant where they made ice cream and cottage cheese. Both products were cheapened up for the lesser known brands including Generics by adding air and cheaper ingredients.
In reality, using this analogy only shows you know nothing about the difference between Generics and Brand Name products.

Sorry, but 99 times out of 100 you'll get what you pay for. My educated guess is that the $5.99 detergent will get your dishes cleaner without using as much product as the one that costs $3.69.

If you take this rediculous analogy one step farther then we can argue that dumpster diving for the bottom of the talent pool will win you Championships. WOW!

This is probably a bit over the top, but I do think there's a good point to be made here about spending. Mike Sixel has asked this a number of times, but what exactly is the value of flexibility if we never use it?

I'm all for making some smart, frugal signings, but I'll be pretty disappointed if a team that won 101 games last year with some obvious holes and 70ish M available doesn't spend some cash to plug them.

2wins87 · November 20, 2019

Noooo! The Braves signed Chris Martin to a two-year, $14 million deal. If only I had gotten this into Derek Falvey's hands sooner

You would have had to tell them to up their bid by $4 million to 2/16 also.

It seems the Braves are getting their shopping done early, and either they are overpaying or everyone has overreacted to the last two years and the contract estimates this year are too low.

Battle ur tail off · November 20, 2019

My only deal with this is the actual pitcher himself. Boyd. I don't think he is that great. He had a career year as far as strikeouts go.

You put up numbers to compare like this but you only do it for a season. Anyone can have one good season better than another. Consistency. That is what you are looking for IMO.

This article makes it seem as if Boyd is a better pitcher than Syndergaard. A look back through their stats for multiple years and an "eye test" look of the type of stuff they have will show that a Syndergaard is a far superior pitcher to Boyd.

That said, getting him in here on a trade for some mid or lower level prospects, I'm all for it.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

diehardtwinsfan · November 20, 2019

My only deal with this is the actual pitcher himself. Boyd. I don't think he is that great. He had a career year as far as strikeouts go.

You put up numbers to compare like this but you only do it for a season. Anyone can have one good season better than another. Consistency. That is what you are looking for IMO.

This article makes it seem as if Boyd is a better pitcher than Syndergaard. A look back through their stats for multiple years and an "eye test" look of the type of stuff they have will show that a Syndergaard is a far superior pitcher to Boyd.

That said, getting him in here on a trade for some mid or lower level prospects, I'm all for it.

Given the Boyd has 3 years of service time and Wheeler is a vet, I don't think these compare at all. You have to like what you've seen from Boyd over the last couple seasons. He's certainly progressing in the right direction...

The question with a guy like Boyd is whether or not he's hit his ceiling or if there's still more there.

Battle ur tail off · November 20, 2019

True. I'm not saying don't go after a guy like Boyd. What I am saying is that if you are finally making your big push by using the highest level prospects you are willing to give up, don't waste them on a guy like Boyd. Aim higher. Kind of like when the Twins trade Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps. Just felt like a waste of one of your better prospects for a guy as underwhelming as Capps was when Ramos could have probably been packaged up with someone to bring in a much more talented player.

He surely could be on the upswing though and I could be wrong. Also, like I already said, if we would be able to get him for a price that the future of the club wouldn't be affected by, I am all for it.

Edited November 20, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

nicksaviking · November 20, 2019

You would have had to tell them to up their bid by $4 million to 2/16 also.

It seems the Braves are getting their shopping done early, and either they are overpaying or everyone has overreacted to the last two years and the contract estimates this year are too low.

I'm not sure if Atlanta is on to something, or if they've just got their blinders on. Free agent relievers bombed like never before last year, which seemed odd because at first glance there seemed to be so many good ams available AND nearly every team seemed mostly disinterested. It seemed to me that most clubs had picked up on something with these bullpen guys.

I'd like to see the Twins get some free agents early, but after last year the bullpen is the last place I hope that happens. I don't think much about Atlanta's front office but I guess we'll have to wait to see if these were smart moves.

Tom Froemming · November 20, 2019

My only deal with this is the actual pitcher himself. Boyd. I don't think he is that great. He had a career year as far as strikeouts go.

You put up numbers to compare like this but you only do it for a season. Anyone can have one good season better than another. Consistency. That is what you are looking for IMO.

This article makes it seem as if Boyd is a better pitcher than Syndergaard. A look back through their stats for multiple years and an "eye test" look of the type of stuff they have will show that a Syndergaard is a far superior pitcher to Boyd.

That said, getting him in here on a trade for some mid or lower level prospects, I'm all for it.

In a vacuum I'd take Snydergaard, but when you factor in he has one fewer season of team control and would cost Graterol, that's enough to tilt me toward Boyd.

Also, here are some of the numbers from the past two seasons combined, which is more than 350 innings for both of them:

Boyd: 26.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 1.19 WHIP, 3.91 SIERA

Thor: 24.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 1.22 WHIP, 3.82 SIERA

So what's with the separation in ERA (3.73 for Thor vs. 4.48 for Boyd)?

The biggest difference is run prevention is that Boyd has given up literally twice as many home runs as Syndergaard over that span. What's with that?

It's unusual to have such an extreme flyball pitcher post such a high HR:FB. Among the 25 pitchers with a flyball rate above 40% last year (min. 120 IP), Boyd's 18.2 HR:FB was the highest. Only five other pitchers in that sample even had a HR:FB over the league average of 15.3 and five had a rate below 12 (Odorizzi was the lowest at 8.8).

The average HR:FB of that sample of 25 was about 13.25. If my math is right, just getting Boyd down to that rate lowers the number of home runs he allowed from 39 to 28. I believe this is a big reason why SIERA views them in such a similar light.

If we really want to let our imaginations go and pretend the the Twins can work some magic and get him closer to Odorizzi, down to 10, that drop goes from 39 to 21.

I definitely understand why so many people view Boyd through a pessimistic lens, but this is just an explanation on why I feel 1) He's better than most people view him, and 2) He's a good bet to be even better than he has been.

diehardtwinsfan · November 20, 2019

In a vacuum I'd take Snydergaard, but when you factor in he has one fewer season of team control and would cost Graterol, that's enough to tilt me toward Boyd.

Also, here are some of the numbers from the past two seasons combined, which is more than 350 innings for both of them:

Boyd: 26.5 K%, 6.8 BB%, 1.19 WHIP, 3.91 SIERA
Thor: 24.3 K%, 6.1 BB%, 1.22 WHIP, 3.82 SIERA

So what's with the separation in ERA (3.73 for Thor vs. 4.48 for Boyd)?

The biggest difference is run prevention is that Boyd has given up literally twice as many home runs as Syndergaard over that span. What's with that?

It's unusual to have such an extreme flyball pitcher post such a high HR:FB. Among the 25 pitchers with a flyball rate above 40% last year (min. 120 IP), Boyd's 18.2 HR:FB was the highest. Only five other pitchers in that sample even had a HR:FB over the league average of 15.3 and five had a rate below 12 (Odorizzi was the lowest at 8.8).

The average HR:FB of that sample of 25 was about 13.25. If my math is right, just getting Boyd down to that rate lowers the number of home runs he allowed from 39 to 28. I believe this is a big reason why SIERA views them in such a similar light.

If we really want to let our imaginations go and pretend the the Twins can work some magic and get him closer to Odorizzi, down to 10, that drop goes from 39 to 21.

I definitely understand why so many people view Boyd through a pessimistic lens, but this is just an explanation on why I feel 1) He's better than most people view him, and 2) He's a good bet to be even better than he has been.

Tigers stadium isn't a band box either if I remember right.

I agree that the key on Boyd is fixing that HR rate... the question is why it's so high. Rick Anderson possibly?

Tom Froemming · November 20, 2019

Tigers stadium isn't a band box either if I remember right.

I agree that the key on Boyd is fixing that HR rate... the question is why it's so high. Rick Anderson possibly?

Could be, but here's another fun fact:

Homers allowed with both average exit velocity under 100 and a projected distance under 380.

9 Boyd

8 Wade Miley

7 Trevor Bauer & Martin Perez

6 Eight different pitchers

28 The entire Twins pitching staff

railmarshalljon · November 21, 2019

As a pharmacy technician, I endorse this generic based plan. Most parts at least. I'd keep Littell in the bullpen but I'm a nihilist that wants to see a more fluid pitching staff where "starter" and "closer" mean very little. Not convinced on Boyd. He has a career FIP of 4.66. That's high. But also 238 strikeouts, which is also high.

Also, with a few exceptions, brand and generic are the same damn thing.

nicksaviking · November 21, 2019

Could be, but here's another fun fact:

Homers allowed with both average exit velocity under 100 and a projected distance under 380.

9 Boyd
8 Wade Miley
7 Trevor Bauer & Martin Perez
6 Eight different pitchers

28 The entire Twins pitching staff

Forgive me for what’s surely going to be an error in physics, but I’d guess exit velocity tends to be lower on off speed pitches? If so, since he’s the rare starter that rarely throws one, he has a lot more batted balls that are in that sub-100-MPH-but-still-capable-of-clearing-the-fence range than most pitchers. And without a sinker, he’s got way more balls that carry 380 feet as well. It’s probably more about volume than anything; his repertoire encourages a smaller assortment of outcomes than most.

Tom Froemming · November 21, 2019

Forgive me for what’s surely going to be an error in physics, but I’d guess exit velocity tends to be lower on off speed pitches? If so, since he’s the rare starter that rarely throws one, he has a lot more batted balls that are in that sub-100-MPH-but-still-capable-of-clearing-the-fence range than most pitchers. And without a sinker, he’s got way more balls that carry 380 feet as well. It’s probably more about volume than anything; his repertoire encourages a smaller assortment of outcomes than most.

I'm not totally sure I get what you're trying to say, but you get some more fun facts!!!

Batted balls against with both

-Less than 100 mph exit velo

-At least 350 feet.

Boyd 28

Bumgarner 25

Syndergaard 25

Wheeler 24

Odorizzi 24

Number of those that were home runs

Boyd 10 (35.7%)

Bumgarner 4 (16.0%

Syndergaard 8 (32.0%)

Wheeler 3 (12.5%)

Odorizzi 5 (20.8%)

Grand total of batted balls hit at least 380 feet (regardless of exit velo)

Bumgarner 39

Boyd 34

Berrios 33

Syndergaard 27

Wheeler 27

Odorizzi 20

Just picked out the fun names as I saw them.

diehardtwinsfan · November 21, 2019

Could be, but here's another fun fact:

Homers allowed with both average exit velocity under 100 and a projected distance under 380.

9 Boyd
8 Wade Miley
7 Trevor Bauer & Martin Perez
6 Eight different pitchers

28 The entire Twins pitching staff

Seriously? That's not random luck.

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