Luke Keaschall’s Position Next Year: The Answer Lies with Luis Arraez

Luke Keaschall is 188 games into his MLB career. He’s a career .281 hitter with a .370 on-base percentage, and has stolen 31 bases at a 76% clip. The last time the Twins had a leadoff hitter this good was in 2022 with Luis Arraez, who hit .314 across four seasons in Minnesota. And like Arraez, no one has any idea where to put him on the field.

Keaschall has been one of the worst defenders in baseball, splitting time between second base, center field, and right field. He’s accumulated a league-worst -19 defensive runs saved (DRS) between the three positions, meaning that he’s been 19 runs worse than a merely average defender. Those 19 runs equal about two wins lost in WAR, as well. Even if you’re not a defensive stats believer, you’ve watched enough Keachall misplays to know that his defense is an issue. He’s struggled to read balls off the bat in the outfield, made poor throwing decisions, and his lack of arm strength disqualifies him from completing many plays.

Arraez never put up a defensive season this bad, but he was suspect with the glove for his whole Twins tenure. He was worth -11 DRS in 2019, with 9 of those lost runs coming at his natural position, second base. During his time in Minnesota, he was closer to average, though he fluctuated from year-to-year.

For most of Arraez’s Twins tenure, he bounced around defensive positions. He played second, third, shortstop, and left field as a rookie in 2019. He stuck at second base in 2020, but in 2021, he played more third than second and spent a little time in left field, and in 2022, he played first base, with some second and a bit of third sprinkled in. He also was the designated hitter 47 times during that four-year stretch, 42 of which came after 2020, when he was replaced by Jorge Polanco as Minnesota’s primary second baseman.

Because Arraez ranged from bad to middle-of-the-road defensively, the Twins felt comfortable playing him in whatever hole the lineup had in a given day. Sometimes this would change from day to day. At other times, he was filling in for an injured teammate on more of a long-term basis. But the equation was simple: he’s not going to be a plus defender at any position, so just stick him in the lineup where needed.

Could this be the route with Keaschall as well? There are a few paths the Twins could take next season to keep his bat in the lineup every day.

Play Keaschall Everyday in Left (or Right) Field

Analyzing Keaschall in a vacuum, planting him in left field is probably the most straightforward way to keep him in the lineup every day. This is especially true if there’s a belief that Keaschall’s ability to read fly balls will improve with practice; he’s only played 717 innings in the outfield as a professional. He has the raw athleticism to get to balls, and his weak arm is mitigated by moving out of right field.

The issue, though, is that Keaschall’s situation can’t be analyzed in a vacuum. Top prospects Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez have debuted this season, both of whom are natural outfielders. Adding the center field presence of Byron Buxton, the Twins’ outfield is crowded. Not only are all three players better outfielders than Keaschall, but they also probably have higher offensive ceilings as well (this is no guarantee, as Keaschall has set a high bar already, hitting about 20% better than an average hitter for his career).

Planting Keaschall in left field squeezes one of Jenkins and Rodriguez out of the picture when Buxton is healthy, and that seems not to be something the Twins want to do. Jenkins is a top-20 prospect across baseball and has played himself to the big leagues at age 21. Rodriguez, who has been on top-100 lists for half a decade, is out of options next season, and thus needs to stick on the major-league roster or be traded. It’s a tough proposition.

Send Keachall Back to the Dirt

The infield is also a little crowded heading into next season, with Brooks Lee, Kaelen Culpepper, Kody Clemens, and Royce Lewis currently penciled into spots and Marek Houston potentially being an option by midseason. But if any of those options—particularly Clemens or Lewis—were to be moved over the offseason, there could be room at first or second. Keaschall played some first base in the minors when playing through a torn UCL.

Arraez himself has turned into a better defender at second base after being given the chance to play at the keystone full-time this season for San Francisco and Philadelphia, accumulating 13 outs above average (OAA). He’s still been mediocre by DRS (-3), and the eye test suggests he’s closer to average than one of the best defensive second basemen in baseball, but given that he was moved off the position to be a 5’10” first baseman, it’s a very positive development

Many fans know the oft-repeated anecdote about how Corey Koskie was a dreadful third baseman at his debut, but after thousands of reps he became a good defender. Players can improve defensively, but it would be nice if Twins fans had a second example of this happening. Arraez’s improvements conspicuously coincided with working with esteemed fielding coach Ron Washington in San Francisco. It may be wishful thinking to believe Keaschall can make these same improvements. Maybe two years out from Tommy John surgery, his throwing will improve, but there are still other warts.

Play Keaschall Every Day at Designated Hitter

Many probably scoff at this proposition because of Keaschall’s offensive profile. But the most basic answer to “Where do we play a good hitter who’s bad in the field?” is “designated hitter.” No, Keaschall is not the aging, burly slugger that you might imagine when you close your eyes and think of a designated hitter, but he is a very productive hitter who can have his defensive woes mitigated by simply not grabbing a glove.

However, Keachall has thus far been a 20%-above-average hitter by wRC+, given his doubles power and high on-base percentage. The average designated hitter this season has mustered a slash line just 5% above average, compared to left field at 2% above average or even first base, which is 15% above average.

The bar for a full-time DH should be higher than a 105 wRC+, but even using first base’s 115 as a benchmark, Keaschall’s 120 career wRC+ is solid. It’s not perfect, but it’s workable, and it keeps one of the Twins’ key cogs in the lineup every day.

The Luis Arraez Approach

As a Twin, Arraez never played more than 65 games at a single position during a year (first base in 2022). The Twins could use a similar approach with Keaschall, though maybe not to the same extreme, or with the same positions.

Keaschall can play second base, the corner outfield, center field, and first base. None of them are pretty—center field was practically a disaster—and we haven’t seen him play first base in the majors. But in moderation, maybe some time bouncing around won’t hurt the Twins.

Let’s use this example as a thought exercise. About a third of the team’s games are against left-handed starters. Both Jenkins and Rodriguez are lefties, and even if you want them to face lefties, maybe you can agree to have the two rookies split reps in right field against southpaws, turning left field over to Keaschall those days. That’s hypothetically 54 games in left field without cutting into Jenkins and Rodriguez games against righties.

There are 108 games left in the schedule. Say Keaschall is the DH for 60 of them. He’s the team’s primary DH, but he’s not an everyday DH, which allows 102 days at DH for other Twins. Between games in left against lefties and DH days against righties, we’ve already accounted for 114 games of Luke Keaschall. Even assuming he will play all 162 games, you only need to find a spot for him 48 times.

You don’t want Keaschall being your second baseman every day. But can you stomach a dozen starts at second base? That’s two games a month. Could you bear the same at first base? Maybe there’s an injury to one or more of (perhaps the most injury-prone outfield in baseball) Buxton, Jenkins, and Rodriguez, and he gets some more action in a corner outfield spot.

Those other 48 games fill up quickly, even without accounting for routine days off. There’s probably something to be said for just sticking him at DH when he’s not in left field, simplifying his workload and keeping him off the dirt, but adding that wrinkle helps the team remain flexible.

The point is that it’s not easy to find a way to fit Keaschall into the lineup with the team as currently (and projectedly, for next season) constructed, whether that be because the outfield is crowded or because he doesn’t have a standard profile for a first baseman or DH. It might require some creativity to make it work, but one thing is certain: the Twins need to find a way to do it.

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