What Do the Twins Have in Reliever Justin Topa?

On Monday evening, Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that the Twins had traded second baseman Jorge Polanco to the Seattle Mariners, for right-handed pitchers Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa and prospects Gabriel González (79th-ranked prospect on MLB.com) and Darren Bowen. Immediately, MLB pundits and fans began frantically dissecting the trade, attempting to rationalize it for both parties. Polanco will become the Mariners' everyday second baseman; DeSclafani will likely slot in as the Twins' fifth starter, and Gonzalez and Bowen will jump into the Twins' top prospect lists, with plans to continue developing as members of a new farm system.

As plans continue to get laid out, it is important not to overshadow the most underrated player involved in the trade: Topa. Drafted in the 17th round of the 2013 MLB Draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, Topa didn't make his MLB debut until 2020, with the Milwaukee Brewers. Spread across his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons, Topa pitched only 17 1/3 combined innings with the Brewers, averaging a 12.32 ERA, 3.63 xERA, 5.56 FIP, and 4.52 xFIP over 88 total batters faced. Eventually, the Brewers traded Topa to the Mariners for prospect Joseph Hernandez, before the 2023 season. 

Upon landing in Seattle, Topa broke out, generating a 2.61 ERA, 2.93 xERA, 3.15 FIP, and 3.55 xFIP over 69 innings pitched and 279 total batters faced with the contending Mariners. Topa's splits in specific statistics between 2022 further emphasize his substantial performance improvement. In 7 1/3 innings pitched with the Brewers in 2022, Topa posted a 4.91 K/9 and 4.91 BB/9, while leaving only 53.8% of runners on base. Only a season later, Topa spiked to a 7.98 K/9, lowered his BB/9 to a mere 2.35, and left 73.3% of runners on base in a much larger sample size. 

Nicknamed "Topaz" in Seattle, the 32-year-old hurler proved to be a hidden gem during his emergent rookie campaign, despite not dramatically altering his motion or increasing his velocity. During the 2022 offseason, Topa mixed a cutter into his pitching repertoire, and it quickly became his best pitch. Topa's sinker doesn't miss bats, per se. Yet, he gets positive outcomes with it repeatedly, through pinpoint precision, generating a +10 run value on the pitch, making it the 18th most effective sinker in baseball last season. Interestingly, most of Topa's positive outcomes were generated by getting hitters to ground out. 

Topa's sinker generated a 69.5% groundball rate in 2023. Mixing his sinker (which he used 44.6% of the time) with his slider, cutter, and changeup, Topa manufactured a 56.7% overall groundball rate, generating the 41st-highest groundball rate in 2023 among pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched. Using the same minimum number of innings pitched, the only Twins reliever with a higher groundball rate than Topa in 2023 was Jhoan Durán, who finished fourth among those who qualified, with a 65.9% groundball rate. Very unlike Durán, though, Topa comes from a very lot slot--essentially a side-arm one, though he stays tall through his delivery. Of 375 pitchers who faced at least 200 batters last year, only 15 had a lower average release point than Topa.

An intriguing juxtaposition to a bullpen constructed of predominately flyball relievers, Topa will provide a unique skill set that was relatively absent, beyond Durán. Suppose the Twins' primary defensive infield combination of Royce Lewis at third, Carlos Correa at shortstop, Edouard Julien at second base, and Alex Kirilloff at first base can improve on a somewhat subpar year defensive output in 2023. In that case, there is reason to suspect Topa could thrive in Minnesota.

The Twins relied heavily on the platoon advantage when constructing lineups, pinch-hitting, and deciding which relievers to use in each scenario. Assuming the team acts in the same manner in 2024, there is reason to suspect Topa may be one of the team's platoon-proof relievers. To further explain, here are Topa's splits in 2023:

• Versus LHH: .216/.307/.352, 101 batters faced, 23 strikeouts, 19 hits, ten walks, and two home runs
• Versus RHH: .253/.288/.313, 178 batters faced, 38 strikeouts, 42 hits, eight walks, and two home runs

When looking at the Twins' bullpen hierarchy, there is reason to believe Topa will effectively become a one-for-one replacement for Emilio Pagán, joining the mix of Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, and Caleb Thielbar as the team's primary high-leverage supporting cast in front of Durán. Topa thrived with the Mariners in 2023, and although the Long Island University product only has one year of sustained success, it appears the Twins will be comfortable handing him a significant role in their 2024 bullpen. 

The acquisition of Topa, who has three years of team control and is eligible to be optioned to the minors for two more seasons, was a savvy addition by the Twins front office. In parting with Polanco, the Twins provided depth to their starting rotation while fortifying their bullpen, two of the team's most significant areas of need this offseason. Acquiring a fifth starter and high-leverage reliever while bolstering an already strong farm system is an impressive tightrope act by the club's decision-makers.

Amid the spectacle of parting ways with the longest-tenured active Twin, the organization acquired four players, two of whom are slated to be immediate contributors. Although DeSclafani's success as a starter will need to carry more weight toward the team's ability to succeed in 2024, Topa will step into a role where the ability to produce at a positive rate will be necessary if he wants to become and stay one of the Twins primary high-leverage relievers.

What do you think of the Twins trading Polanco to the Mariners? How will Topa perform in 2024? Will he pitch the same number of innings Pagán threw in 2023? Join the discussion and comment below.