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    JR Murphy And Bad Timing


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins had a glaring need to improve at the catcher position during the offseason. With no clear long-term solution in place, fans hoped to see Terry Ryan and the front office take aggressive action toward addressing this stark organizational weakness.

    The moves that the club ended up making probably would not be described as such. The Twins traded an expendable outfielder for a backup catcher from the Yankees, and grabbed a discarded backstop from the Mariners system off of waivers.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

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    They have already given up on the latter acquisition. John Hicks was placed on waivers to make room for Jose Berrios and was immediately claimed by the Tigers, leaving Minnesota with two catchers on the 40-man roster. One is Kurt Suzuki, who is likely in his last year with the Twins. The other is John Ryan Murphy, who is off to an utterly miserable start in his new uniform.

    When they traded Aaron Hicks for Murphy during the offseason, the Twins were hopeful that the improving 24-year-old backstop, a former prep star and second-round draft pick, could develop into a fixture behind the plate. Instead, he just looks like a player that badly needs to be fixed.

    Murphy was slow to get going in spring training. Given the lion's share of reps at catcher, he collected just five singles in 36 at-bats for a .139 average.

    "It's timing more than anything," said Joe Vavra, a former hitting instructor turned bench coach, when asked about the newcomer's struggles at the time.

    Timing still appears to be Murphy's primary issue, and I'm not talking about the poor timing of batting .086 in your first month when trying to make an impression on a new organization and fanbase.

    In April, Murphy put up a dreadful .225 OPS and it wasn't because opposing pitchers were flat-out overwhelming him. He struck out only five times in 38 plate appearances, but still managed just three hits – a pair of singles and a ground ball double.

    His BABIP currently stands at .100, meaning he is only getting a hit on one out of 10 balls he puts into play. It's not hard to see why when you look at his batted ball data; Murphy has hit a grounder or fly ball almost 90 percent of the time, with a meager 10.3 percent line drive rate. That is a rather blatant indication that his timing is off, and he's not quite squaring up the ball. The best way to resolve that problem is with regular at-bats.

    Murphy hasn't gotten those. Only once has he started consecutive games and usually he's been on the bench for multiple days between appearances. It's a bit of a hard sell to suggest that a guy whose batting average starts with zero should be playing more regularly, but I believe that would be the best course for Paul Molitor at this point. Murphy is bound to start collecting some hits and even if he doesn't you're not losing all that much by taking Kurt Suzuki's bat out of the lineup. Plus, additional rest could only be beneficial for the veteran, who has logged more than 9,000 MLB innings at catcher and routinely takes a beating.

    The other option for ramping up Murphy's at-bat count would be to send him to the minors, where he could start everyday, but unfortunately the aforementioned decision to waive Hicks leaves the Twins with no readily available replacement. In order to demote Murphy, another catcher would need to be added to the 40-man.

    Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver, the two best catching prospects in the system (faint praise), are both at Double-A and batting around .250. Neither belongs in the majors right now. The current starter in Rochester is Juan Centeno, a 26-year-old non-prospect with a .589 OPS at Triple-A. Unless Ryan can pull off a trade or salvage something off of the waiver wire, there's really no feasible option for replacing Murphy, not to mention Suzuki if he got injured.

    It's a bad situation, and there aren't any great options. But the Twins saw something in Murphy, and so now they might as well give him some more regular exposure to find out if it can emerge. Given the alternatives, they really need it to.

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    "Patience with JRM. As Seth said, he's hit at every stage of his career."

     

    .733 career minor league OPS.  That's not "hitting at every stage of his career."

     

    That's "not being terrible, but not showing the kind of bat that often translates to major league success."

     

    "Patience with JRM. As Seth said, he's hit at every stage of his career."

     

    .733 career minor league OPS.  That's not "hitting at every stage of his career."

     

    That's "not being terrible, but not showing the kind of bat that often translates to major league success."

    It's a little more nuanced than that, but you are probably on to something.  Chris Herrmann has a career .736 minor league OPS, obviously a little older as a college draftee, but that age-adjusting performance is a very different argument than "hit at every stage of his career."  (And Murphy's first plus performance at AA came at age 22, versus age 23 for Herrmann, so it's not like their timelines were way off throughout.)

     

    Murphy's minor league success as a plus hitter is primarily limited to 2013, when he posted a 116 wRC+ split between AA and AAA.  His MLB success with the Yankees seemed to support that, although there were some K% and BABIP issues.

    If his BABIP was at the other end of the spectrum (See, Santana, Danny, 2014) I'd be inundated with posts on here about how he would be a candidate for a huge regression to the mean.  Should not the same apply in the opposite direction in this situation?   Of course a wise man once said that advanced metrics are a wonderful tool--for predicting the past.

     

    There's nothing in Murphy's track record to indicate that he is really THIS bad. He's always hit, at every level, to at least a league-average type of production. No reason to believe that he can't do that here.  Maybe you're right... playing him MORE might be exactly what he needs. 

    And let him use Joe Mauer's goggles.

    Let's see. I was hoping the Twins would break camp with Hicks as the backup and have Murphy work thru his issues starting regularly at AAA. That didn't happen, and for some reason the Twins felt they should waive Hicks rather than, say, Pat Dean, who is behind Rogers in the AAA lefty pecking order and if push came to shove, even behind non-roster Logan Darnell.

     

    They didn't.

     

    There is hope that throwing Murphy out there more regularly will make him a better catcher. But a catcher learning new pitchers as well as struggling with his bat, is struggling, period. You want the defense to shine. But it is cloudly behind-the-plate for Murphy.

     

    There is the hope that Murpjhy will pull togetehr and shine defensively. And the offense will come. And that the Twins will flip Suzuki so they can promote some otehr talent for the moment, or even give a prospect time if they decide to go into total rebuild mode.

     

    Of course, we could bring back the .429 hitting Drew Butera!

     

    Someone has to make outs in the lineup every game. So someone going 0-3 is no worse than having your pitcher bat in the Natiuonal League.

     

    When Suzuki made the 2014 All Star game, who would have thought he would be our primary catcher through the end of 2017? It's looking more and more likely.

    I think most posters on here were actually pleading for Ryan to trade him at that time.

    If we had traded him in 2014, who would have caught?

    I agree with those who say Murphy has to be given a chance to perform. He is only 24 and he rode the bench in NY or was shuttled back and forth to the minors for 3 years. He has just over 300 major league plate appearances, that is all.

     

    Defensively, I wouldn't mind if someone reported on scouting reports. I was able to find two quotes from a year ago when he was a Yankee:

     

    "He appeared adept defensively which made up for any of his offensive shortcomings. As a reserve catcher, that’s about all one can ask for."

            Pinstripepundits.com

     

    and

     

    " ... He's better defensively, with a plus arm and at least average defensive skills. Some scouts still see some aspects of defense for him to work on, but indications from the analytical folks are that he’s an above average framer, so if that holds up and he reaches his offensive upside, there could be an everyday catcher here."

            Fangraphs.

     

    If his BABIP was at the other end of the spectrum (See, Santana, Danny, 2014) I'd be inundated with posts on here about how he would be a candidate for a huge regression to the mean.  Should not the same apply in the opposite direction in this situation?   Of course a wise man once said that advanced metrics are a wonderful tool--for predicting the past.

    I thought the same thing, but I think it's because of the dreaded SSS, apparently he has hit the ball weakly.

     

    But overall, BABIP doesn't seem as scientific as some other stats. It's a measurement, pure and simple; make of it what you will.

    If we had traded him in 2014, who would have caught?

    Does it really matter? The Twins were never going to contend for anything during Suzukis tenure here.

    If you could have gotten some potential pieces for him that might contribute to the next playoff team you do it and worry about who plays catcher later.

    This one foot in, one foot out rebuild drives me crazy.

    Perkins absolutely should have been traded at peak value, as should have Willingham, Suzuki, Hughes and probably Dozier.

    Funny, all of those justifying this by saying Hicks isn't hitting for the Yanks either (or wasn't when healthy) seem to like to love to leave defense and base running out of the equation.

     

    It's not Hicks bat they're missing at this point (even though his bat offers loads more upside than Murphy's, IMO). But, he sure would be a big help in CF/RF right now. Murphy seems to a bad defensive catcher, when this team was desperate for an average one.

    It was an obvious mistake to make that trade. He is not a major league player. End of story.

    It's not a mistake if you gambled another bad player to get him. I'd like to see him get a good, long run as the starter this year to see what we have. We know Hicks is awful, let's see if we can still win this deal.




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