Joe Ryan Has Reached an Early Career Crossroads

In his recent "Baseball Bits" video titled "The Only Thing That Matters in Baseball," YouTuber Foolish Bailey highlighted how meaningful counts are in dictating the outcome of an at-bat. When starting ahead 1-0 in a count last season, hitters league-wide generated an .826 OPS. In contrast, when falling behind 0-1, hitters saw their production drop exponentially, manufacturing a lackluster .619 OPS. As the video continues, Bailey illustrates how dire counts are to both hitters and pitchers before highlighting which starting pitchers were best at getting ahead in counts in 2023.

Atop the leaderboard, unsurprisingly, were some of the best starting pitchers in MLB: Max Scherzer, Spencer Strider, and George Kirby. Scroll down slightly, and one will find Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan ranked sixth, beginning 56.6% of at-bats with a first-pitch strike. The primary reason Ryan and other pitchers on this list could generate first-pitch strikes over half the time was because they threw their fastballs in the zone early and often. Specifically, Ryan threw a fastball on the first pitch of an at-bat 58.4% of the time 

Getting ahead in the count doesn't guarantee success, evidenced by Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon ranking second on the list by beginning 58.8% of at-bats with a first-pitch strike in 2023 despite earning an uninspiring 4.84 ERA and 4.61 FIP over 154 ⅓ innings pitched last season. In the case of Ryan, though, it has been a marker of success for the entirety of his young career. Noted in Bailey's video, Ryan ranks third in MLB in winning plate appearances with the count advantage since 2020, getting hitters out at a 41.4% clip. 

Ryan's low arm angle is the driving force in getting his low-velocity fastball (23rd percentile on Baseball Savant) to make hitters swing and miss early and often in counts. The 27-year-old used his low arm slot to forge a 16.8% swinging strike rate (a 97th percentile outcome last season) while throwing 65% of his pitches high of the batter (92nd percentile) regardless of whether they were located in the zone. Ryan and the Twins' coaching staff know what he does well, and while he has justifiably used this approach to maximize early career success, there is reason to suspect he is nearing a crossroads in his career.

Ryan straining his left groin before starting against the Atlanta Braves played a significant role in his decline in performance from June 27th through August 2nd. Still, a more significant concern follows the right-hander. In 2023, hitters swung at pitches from Ryan more than any other starting pitcher in MLB. The primary cause of this development was that hitters were unafraid of his lackluster secondary pitches, which consisted of an average splitter and a sweeper that often landed far outside the zone. Able to disregard his offspeed pitches, hitters could confidently sit on fastballs high in the zone, knowing he would throw it 57% of the time. Here are Ryan's numbers before and after straining his left groin:

• 4/2 - 6/22: 93 2/3 innings pitched (IP), 2.98 ERA, 2.77 FIP, 9.61 strikeouts per nine (K/9), 1.44 walks per nine (BB/9), 71.2 left on base percentage (LOB%), 6.7 home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB)
• 8/26 - 9/29: 35 2/3 IP, 4.79 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 11.36 K/9, 2.27 BB/9, 75.3 LOB%, 16.3% HR/FB

Judging Ryan's performance when he was injured is unfair. It would provide an inaccurate representation of the pitcher he is, but there are grounds to be concerned about his drop in performance before and after his injured list stint. Beyond his counting statistics (ERA and FIP) jumping two-fold, the most concerning development in the former Tampa Bay Rays' prospects' performance from August 26th through September 29th is the egregious spike in his home run-to-fly ball ratio. In seven games started in that timeframe, Ryan gave up a home run in five of them, including three at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies in his final start of the season. 

Assuming Ryan has fully recovered from the left groin strain that was the leading cause in pitfalling to an 8.63 ERA, 8.08 FIP, and 32.1% home run to fly ball rate from June 27th through August 2nd, there is no reason to suspect he will perform that poorly. Ryan is a good pitcher who deserves to be in an MLB rotation, and Twins decision-makers agree. This past Saturday, Twins manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters at Fort Myers that "Joe showed us pretty much everything last year. The highs were very high, and the lows were what they are are, but Joe's proven himself as a good Major League starting pitcher."

The team feels good about handing Ryan the ball every fifth day, but Baldelli acknowledged he needs to make adjustments, stating, "he knows that he can't go out there every start, or have a run of starts, where he's just relying on his fastball. He's gonna have to use those other pitches, and those pitches are good. They have real value in getting hitters out; it's learning how to use them and really the consistency." Baldelli further emphasized Ryan's consistency: "So, I think the consistency of his pitches needs to get better, and when he does that, he can go from good to great if he's able to do that." 

As Baldelli noted, the most significant adjustment Ryan needs to make to go from good to great is improving his offspeed pitches and becoming less reliant on his fastball. The first step Ryan could take in achieving this milestone is fine-tuning his adequate splitter.

In 2023, Ryan got hitters to whiff on his splitter 21.8% of the time, which is fine, but the results showed his splitter profiles better as a third pitch instead of a main complement to his elite fastball. Last season, Ryan tried using a sweeper and slider as third pitches in his repertoire, but neither yielded good results as they were often too far out of the zone for hitters to chase. Ryan could be incentivized to fine-tune his sweeper in an attempt to use it again next season. Still, a shift to a slower, more compact gyro slider could benefit his velocity-deficient profile that relies on deception and a unique arm slot.

Regardless, Ryan showing he has fine-tuned his splitter and added another viable secondary pitch that could directly complement his elite fastball would be the best outcome for the California native heading into 2024. Ryan has reached a crossroads in his young career. This upcoming season will play a significant role in deciding whether he is a frontline starting pitcher who can co-exist alongside Pablo López and Bailey Ober or if he is merely a steady back-of-the-rotation arm with hindrances that block him from becoming the actualized pitcher fans and pundits thought he could be early in his career.

What is your confidence level in Joe Ryan heading into the 2024 season? Will he solidify himself as a frontline starter or further regress to the back of the rotation? Sound off in the comments!