Has Derek Falvey Established His Pitching Pipeline?

In October 2016, the Minnesota Twins hired Derek Falvey as their executive vice president and chief baseball officer. He brought a substantial track record of success when looking at how the Guardians have churned out pitchers over the years, and the hope was that Minnesota could replicate that system. 

Now in season seven, it's worth wondering how well the belief in the process has paid dividends.

Looking at the draft first, the Twins have made just one first-round pick that was a pitcher during Falvey's tenure. Surprisingly, they took a high school arm in the form of Chase Petty. There is almost nothing more volatile than a prep arm, but Petty and his high-velocity fastball at 26th overall made sense as a reasonable gamble.

The most indicative of developmental results is how arms from the later round progress through the system. Perhaps nothing is more notable there than both Bailey Ober and Louie Varland. The former was a 12th-round pick during the 2017 draft, and he has elevated himself to the point of being a consistent rotation mainstay. He was left out of the Opening Day staff due to unprecedented depth, but he's pitched himself into ink.

Even further out than Ober, Varland was taken in the 15th round during the 2019 draft from Concordia-St. Paul, a Division II program. He immediately saw velocity jump up as he went to work with a pro team, and he quietly climbed the ranks. Moving into actual prospect status for the Twins and eventually cracking the top 10, Varland forced his way into the rotation. We have seen him struggle with home runs thus far, but getting that under control can help him to take a massive next step.

A bit further down the line, Minnesota can hang a hat on Randy Dobnak, who came out of nowhere to break through at the big league level. After an unfortunate injury, he hasn't seen sustained success, but earning a big payday and contributing at the highest level can be attributed to internal development.

On the relief side, we have seen stories like Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax succeed at a very high level. The former was out of baseball and came back to be among baseball's most dominant left-handed arms. Thielbar has been wildly successful for Minnesota and a mainstay in a bullpen that has constantly shuffled arms. Although this regime did not draft Jax, they had a hand in shaping his current position. Moving on as a starter, Jax has pushed his stuff into high-leverage spots and has shown an ability to set up one of the game's best closers in Jhoan Duran.

Only some prospects are a finished product too. While there are highly touted arms such as Connor Prielipp and Simeon Woods Richardson still waiting to put it all together on the farm, there are pitchers such as David Festa, Marco Raya, Cory Lewis, and C.J. Culpepper that are turning heads as they make their way through the system.

Developing a pipeline is about more than just big league production, too. As we saw with Petty, having the depth to move prospects is a must. Making big trades meant having arms like Cade Povich and Brusdar Graterol. Flipping assets to grab arms like Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez is less about the pitching development but adds to the overall depth.

Overall, the Twins have yet to truly develop an ace, but that's not necessarily what Cleveland did. Ryan could wind up being Minnesota's Shane Bieber, and they've stockpiled some arms that could produce dividends to the tune of Triston McKenzie, Aaron Civale, and others. Cleveland's arms have come mainly into the system by fitting a mold. The organization takes big-bodied guys that can throw strikes. They then look to add velocity and help them grow. Corey Kluber was an example back in the day, and there have been many additions. 

The bar for what a pitching pipeline looks like is murky, but Minnesota being where they are now, is as good of a representation as we may see. The pipeline has been built through a combination of development and acquisition. Marrying those two together has created depth. The further this organization can get from needing to spend on big names or hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with Chris Archer or Dylan Bundy, the more self-sustaining it will be.

It hasn't been perfect by any means, and we're still hoping to see the trend continue, but for now, the Twins' pitching pipeline is starting to come into focus.