Gold Glove in Play for Max Kepler in 2020?

Since coming to the big leagues in 2015, Kepler has shown himself to be strong in the field, posting a positive UZR and DRS in each season he has been with the Twins. In fact, over the past two seasons, Max Kepler ranks fifth among all outfielders in defensive runs saved and third among all outfielders in ultimate zone rating. The further you dig into Keplers numbers, the more you realize just how special of a fielder he is. From his 92nd percentile outs above average , to his 92% success rate, to his ability to make difficult plays (13th in 4-star catches), Kepler lights up any outfield defense leaderboard.

What really made Kepler so special in the field last season was his ability to take the most efficient routes to fly balls. In 2019, no outfielder took better fly ball routes than Max Kepler, according to Statcast. This was not an outlier either, as Kepler finished 8th and 11th in the metric in 2018 and 2017, respectively. By taking such efficient routes to the ball, Kepler is able to make up for his average reaction times that he has posted in each of the past four seasons.

Another area where Kepler has brought great value to the Minnesota Twins has been his ability to play center field. With Byron Buxton’s injury history, this has been something upon which the Twins have needed to rely on Kepler frequently over the past two seasons, shifting him to center field for 36% of his innings. In his time in center field, Kepler has played really well, producing above average numbers by any defensive metric. Kepler, though, lacks the top-end speed and athleticism that is required of a top-tier center fielder. Over the past two seasons, Kepler has posted a combined 17.6 UZR/150 in center, compared to a ridiculous 26.9 combined UZR/150 in right field. Being forced to leave his regular position of right field where he is one of the best in baseball in favor of center field, where he isn’t quite at that level, has limited his candidacy of being a Gold Glover.

Heading into the 2020 season, Byron Buxton will hopefully enter the year healthy after receiving shoulder surgery in the offseason. The Minnesota Twins have been working with Buxton on his positioning and mindset as measures to keeping him healthy throughout the season. If Buxton can remain healthy for the 2020 season and Kepler is able to remain in the right field position where he has shown elite ability, a Gold Glove is certainly in play for Różycki.

What do you think about Kepler’s chances at a Gold Glove in 2020? Do you think Buxton’s health is what will decide Kepler’s Gold Glove candidacy? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!

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