Draft Bonus Details Emerge

Dman · April 6, 2023

I have no idea how teams and agents negotiate slot value but it seems to me that teams would have some leverage at least in the first round where the slot values are high. For instance if the player you pick would have fallen a pick or two or three from where you had taken them they could easily be out $500,000 or more. Also with the player set to make at least around $4M on average in the first round it would seem they could afford to take a little off of that and not affect the huge amount they are getting compared to the players after them.

And yet it seems most players in the first round pretty much get their pool amount if not a bit more. So that imagined leverage of mine apparently does not really exist. As best I can tell it seems agents\players know about where they are going to picked in the draft. I guess based on what teams are calling them and where pundits are ranking them. Take Brooks Lee as one example he was seen as a pretty certain top 5 pick and possible number 1 pick but he dropped to number 8. While the Twins did not give him number 5 money they did pony up $200,000 over slot to get the deal done. Their 2nd round pick slide in the draft and they went over slot for Prielipp as well. Even sort of popup player Schobel got the full bonus and it seemed he was a slight reach where they picked him.

So where you think they could save the most money which is the first two rounds it doesn't seem happen all that much. So it must be that if a team values a player in that slot the agent\player feels they deserve the slot amount and it is hard to argue otherwise at least for the first three rounds or so. After that it seems player evaluations fluctuate so much it is hard to know where players might fall.

With the Twins picking top 5 I don't see a discount coming unless they go way off the board which generally doesn't work out well. It is possible they could save money in the supplemental first or 2nd round but unlikely IMO at least based on past precedent as they will probably grab players that slide in the draft with those picks and or be picking a player ranked in that range. I think they saved a little when they picked Miller in 2021 as he wasn't supposed to go until the 2nd round although I don't think the Twins will be reaching for players this year.

As Jeremy said it is impossible to know what will present itself and what the Twins will do but it seems more likely that they will overspend in the first three rounds and then find some senior signs later to make up the difference. I just hope they pick players that can make it and impact the MLB club regardless of bonus amounts.

Cory Engelhardt · April 6, 2023

I see the Rangers have the 4th pick, but the 16th most draft slot money to use. This is due to losing their 2nd and 3rd round picks with the signings of DeGrom and Eovaldi.

Jeremy, what do you think the chances are that the Rangers take a signability player at #4 due to this? I'd have to imagine the odds of that are fairly high, no?

Major League Ready · April 6, 2023

24 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I see the Rangers have the 4th pick, but the 16th most draft slot money to use. This is due to losing their 2nd and 3rd round picks with the signings of DeGrom and Eovaldi.

Jeremy, what do you think the chances are that the Rangers take a signability player at #4 due to this? I'd have to imagine the odds of that are fairly high, no?

That's a very good point. The Rangers have $4.4M less than the Twins. That's a big deal given they pick right before us. This should really put us ahead of them practically speaking. The slot value of the 4th pick is 7,698,000. Unless they are willing to put 77% of their money into one player and I don't see that happening. Of course, they don't have a 2nd rounder so maybe they hang it all one the 4th pick.

Jeremy Nygaard · April 6, 2023

16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I see the Rangers have the 4th pick, but the 16th most draft slot money to use. This is due to losing their 2nd and 3rd round picks with the signings of DeGrom and Eovaldi.

Jeremy, what do you think the chances are that the Rangers take a signability player at #4 due to this? I'd have to imagine the odds of that are fairly high, no?

The Rangers have been so Boras-heavy recently that I think that will play into it more than the smaller bonus pool. Last year they took Rocker earlier than expected and that allowed them to stretch their money far enough to also sign Brock Porter (MLB's 11th overall prospect) in the 4th round.

I haven't heard who is repping the top guys this year, but it wouldn't be inconceivable to try to pull something similar off again. I would think the chances aren't very high that they would simply take a lesser player because they have a smaller bonus pool. A Boras package, though, I could totally see.

jishfish · April 6, 2023

I think it's hard to overstate how huge moving up in the lottery was for the Twins. Having what traditionally would be been the 13th overall pick and ending up with the 4th highest bonus pool is massive, and gives the Twins so much flexibility to approach the draft in different ways.

There's the potential to possibly get a player they love past the Rangers due to the bonus pool difference, or the possibility of getting top 25-30 talents down to picks 34 and 49, which is probably more so the route I see them going based on this FO's philosophies.

My best guess at how the draft goes is: High-floor college bat at #5 --> 1-2 high upside preps at #34/49 --> hammer college pitching in rounds 5-15, which has been their MO in prior years.

My bold prediction at this point is that Dollander is on the board at 5 and Twins fans lose their minds when the Twins pass and take a Brayden Taylor or Jacob Gonzalez instead.

Jeremy Nygaard · April 6, 2023

2 hours ago, jishfish said:

My bold prediction at this point is that Dollander is on the board at 5 and Twins fans lose their minds when the Twins pass and take a Brayden Taylor or Jacob Gonzalez instead.

Bold. And believable.

Mike Sixel · April 6, 2023

2 hours ago, jishfish said:

I think it's hard to overstate how huge moving up in the lottery was for the Twins. Having what traditionally would be been the 13th overall pick and ending up with the 4th highest bonus pool is massive, and gives the Twins so much flexibility to approach the draft in different ways.

There's the potential to possibly get a player they love past the Rangers due to the bonus pool difference, or the possibility of getting top 25-30 talents down to picks 34 and 49, which is probably more so the route I see them going based on this FO's philosophies.

My best guess at how the draft goes is: High-floor college bat at #5 --> 1-2 high upside preps at #34/49 --> hammer college pitching in rounds 5-15, which has been their MO in prior years.

My bold prediction at this point is that Dollander is on the board at 5 and Twins fans lose their minds when the Twins pass and take a Brayden Taylor or Jacob Gonzalez instead.

Always pass on the great pitching prospects, wonder why you don't have elite pitching.....so, yes, I'll be disappointed if that happens. But not surprised.

ashbury · April 6, 2023

Is it still the case that if they fail to sign a player they draft, the money assigned to the slot where that player was taken is lost? If they plan to overpay for some other guy, this detail becomes crucial.

Dman · April 6, 2023

2 hours ago, jishfish said:

My bold prediction at this point is that Dollander is on the board at 5 and Twins fans lose their minds when the Twins pass and take a Brayden Taylor or Jacob Gonzalez instead.

I had the same feeling that Dollander could fall. Still early in the season but Crews is hitting .500 right now with an insane slugging to go with it. As most mocks have it I still think Pittsburgh takes him numbers one. He could be a generational bat. Skenes has been K'ing about two per inning I think Washington goes with the military man and his elite stuff.

Hard to figure out what Detroit and Texas want to do. Detroit doesn't necessarily need more outfielder's but Langford will be tough to pass up. They could use arms but their system really needs elite bats just as much if not more and bats are generally safer bets. They could take any of Langford, Gonzalas or maybe cut a deal with Wilson. Really hard to say what Detroit does as they need everything. I have them taking Langford though.

That leaves Texas and they very well could double down on pitching and take Dollander or they could go 5 tool and choose Clark. They could also go with any of the elite College level bats available and see which one cuts the best deal. Hard to say but I am starting to see a potential path to Dollander at number 5 and if Clark isn't there I hope the Twins take him. Dollander has everything the Twins like in a pitcher, good control, three above average pitches, high end velocity and an easy delivery. If he is there he should be a no brainer IMO.

Doctor Gast · April 6, 2023

IMO hopefully it'll pan out close to what happen last year. The Twins have quite a few good 1st round pick possibilities depending how things shake loose. If Max Clark (#1 prep) is the top guy available, do you think the Twins would spend the extra $ to sign him to keep him from signing with Vanderbilt? or will they skip him?

I'm excited about the next rankings.

Jamie Cameron · April 7, 2023

A few musings from the comment on a great writeup from Jeremy:

- Draft pool bonus for moving up in the lottery is amazing. The Twins essentially get enough additional funds to sign a Comp A player, that's a pretty legit caliber prospect.

-Big fan of this big picture with 4 top 100 picks. The way I have heard it recently presented is a group of 7-8 guys at the top starting to separate, then great depth in 20-35 and generally through round 4. That's a great place to be for the Twins.

-Also wouldn't be surprised if Dollander was available. There's also a GREAT group of college pitchers in the 30-45 range on the consensus board (Kuehler, Witt, Watts-Brown, Sproat etc.). I think the Twins will stick with their trends (bats through round 2-3, then college arms).

-For the teams ahead. I think Crews, Skenes are trending 1-1 and 1-2. Detroit has alternated prep and college guys with their most recent 1st round picks, but their college players have struggled (Tork, Mize to injury). Rangers have gone college the last 4 years.

-Finally, getting more excited about the two prep guys (Clark and Jenkins). Their both GREAT prospects. There's some anti-prep bias because their season can lag (Clark got started like 2 weeks ago) and the Twins model pushes them college. Prep bats I'm much better with than prep arms.

-I think the Twins are adding multiple great prospects in the draft. It's a really deep class. Can't wait to nerd it up with y'all along the way.

Jeremy Nygaard · April 7, 2023

21 hours ago, ashbury said:

Is it still the case that if they fail to sign a player they draft, the money assigned to the slot where that player was taken is lost? If they plan to overpay for some other guy, this detail becomes crucial.

Yes, this is still the rule.

2wins87 · April 7, 2023

On 4/6/2023 at 7:14 AM, Jeremy Nygaard said:

All picks in rounds 11-20 are "soft-capped" at $125,000. Any player signed for over that amount will have their overage count against the team's pool. (i.e. if a round 11 draftee signs for $150,000 then $25,000 will count towards the team's bonus pool).

I'm pretty sure the soft cap is $150,000 now in the new CBA, not $125,000. BA had to correct their initial article.

2wins87 · April 7, 2023

On 4/6/2023 at 9:11 AM, Dman said:

I have no idea how teams and agents negotiate slot value but it seems to me that teams would have some leverage at least in the first round where the slot values are high. For instance if the player you pick would have fallen a pick or two or three from where you had taken them they could easily be out $500,000 or more. Also with the player set to make at least around $4M on average in the first round it would seem they could afford to take a little off of that and not affect the huge amount they are getting compared to the players after them.

And yet it seems most players in the first round pretty much get their pool amount if not a bit more. So that imagined leverage of mine apparently does not really exist. As best I can tell it seems agents\players know about where they are going to picked in the draft. I guess based on what teams are calling them and where pundits are ranking them. Take Brooks Lee as one example he was seen as a pretty certain top 5 pick and possible number 1 pick but he dropped to number 8. While the Twins did not give him number 5 money they did pony up $200,000 over slot to get the deal done. Their 2nd round pick slide in the draft and they went over slot for Prielipp as well. Even sort of popup player Schobel got the full bonus and it seemed he was a slight reach where they picked him.

That is my understanding that it does basically work like you would expect it to. It might be hard to see in the numbers since it can also work in the other direction where a guy falls a couple slots because he's not willing to cut a deal a couple picks higher, but can get pretty close from another team a few picks down going over slot.

FWIW, only Torkelson in 2020 got the full slot value at #1 overall since the pools were introduced in 2012, and more often than not in 11 drafts, the highest bonus has not gone to the guy picked highest (among those who did sign).

Seems like maybe it is becoming less common lately vs just after the pools were first introduced, and it's never really been done again like the Astros did it in the first opportunity in 2012. Maybe the teams have moved on from trying to game their pools so much, or the agents have gotten better after a few rounds of negotiation and have learned they can hold out and will usually get decent deals for their players. They should generally have pretty good leverage since the players are unique, while most draftees are more or less happy going to any of the 30 clubs as long as they get the best deal

2wins87 · April 7, 2023

22 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

IMO hopefully it'll pan out close to what happen last year. The Twins have quite a few good 1st round pick possibilities depending how things shake loose. If Max Clark (#1 prep) is the top guy available, do you think the Twins would spend the extra $ to sign him to keep him from signing with Vanderbilt? or will they skip him?

I'm excited about the next rankings.

Has it been implied that he would turn down 7+ million and go to college?

It's hard for me to see signability being an issue in the top 10 or so picks.

2wins87 · April 7, 2023

On 4/6/2023 at 11:29 AM, jishfish said:

My bold prediction at this point is that Dollander is on the board at 5 and Twins fans lose their minds when the Twins pass and take a Brayden Taylor or Jacob Gonzalez instead.

I could definitely see something like this happening. Pretty easily actually.

Dollander's ++slider has apparently been totally absent this spring. Probably a very real question whether he'd still be deserving of a top 5 slot if he doesn't find it. He's still got velocity and a clean delivery, so he could still be worth it they think they can work on his grip and re-develop his breaking pitch, but he's been slipping, and is probably clearly outside the top 3 at this point.

jishfish · April 7, 2023

17 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

-Finally, getting more excited about the two prep guys (Clark and Jenkins). Their both GREAT prospects. There's some anti-prep bias because their season can lag (Clark got started like 2 weeks ago) and the Twins model pushes them college. Prep bats I'm much better with than prep arms.

Totally agree with you on this point. From a casual perspective, it's so much harder to follow preps leading up to the draft given their season starts later, they play less game, and the quality of competition varies so much.

I think the preps are what I'm most interested to follow over the next 3 months. Seems like we have a pretty good feel for college talent at this point, but I'm pretty sure last year Jackson Holliday was considered a late first round pick at this point still. So much can happen over the next few months!

Hawkeye Bean Counter · April 8, 2023

If Dollander is available at #5, effectively #4 if we want to out pay the rangers, I think the Twins take it and run. We are also only 150k below the Tigers and only 150k above Seattle who has the 6th, 29th, 30th pick. I think Dollander will regain a little of the feel as the season goes on. You don't find many pitchers that can pump up to 99, and has 3 other mlb pitches. Yes he may need a little coaching, but other than Skenes those both look like strong building blocks to any rotation.

Jocko87 · April 11, 2023

On 4/6/2023 at 8:48 AM, Jeremy Nygaard said:

The Rangers have been so Boras-heavy recently that I think that will play into it more than the smaller bonus pool. Last year they took Rocker earlier than expected and that allowed them to stretch their money far enough to also sign Brock Porter (MLB's 11th overall prospect) in the 4th round.

I haven't heard who is repping the top guys this year, but it wouldn't be inconceivable to try to pull something similar off again. I would think the chances aren't very high that they would simply take a lesser player because they have a smaller bonus pool. A Boras package, though, I could totally see.

I don't know if you've heard but the Twins have been talking to Mr. Boras quite a bit lately. 😈🤣

Seriously I have been thinking about how he effects the top of the draft. Really interesting to see who he reps.

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