Double Bubble: Unraveling MLB’s New Playoff Format

Why California and Texas, 2 of the biggest Covid hotbeds? 

In addition to the responses above, I'm pretty sure every person allowed into the bubble/clubhouses is going to be tightly regulated -- even cleaning and maintenance.

As long as the players aren't ordering pizza and going outside to meet the delivery driver, they should be OK.

Three reasons:

1. Weather, obviously.

2. Proximity of pairs of stadiums. Outside of the coasts, it's hard to find two pairs of stadiums within driving distance of one another.

 

3. The pairs of stadiums need to be of the opposing league. Places like New York don't work because of the AL/NL split. New York and Philly would work for the AL (except for weather) but where do you put the NL games at that point?

Good post! I was confused about this at first too. Further explanation:

1. Guaranteed good weather or a roof is necessary to avoid delays (which would cause doubleheaders and/or throw off the whole schedule) -- this disqualifies pretty much every northern ballpark without a roof.

2. I think they want the stadium pairs close so the DS winners can drive relatively quickly to the CS stadium. (Insert joke about California traffic here.) Air travel compromises the "bubble" isolation more than ground transport.

3. The ALDS/ALCS is only being played in a pair of NL stadiums, with the opposite for the NLDS/NLCS, to ensure no team is playing those rounds on their actual home field.

CA and TX are really the only places left that could meet this criteria. And fortunately one of the CA/TX teams (the Rangers) is already virtually eliminated from postseason contention, so they can safely be designated as the World Series host.

It doesn't even matter if teams are disqualified or not, which is why they picked TEX/HOU for the NL (both home stadiums of AL teams) and SDP/LAD for the AL (both home stadiums of NL teams). In either case, MLB could choose the alternate stadium to host the World Series should one of those home teams make it the Championship Series round.

What if TEX/HOU and SDP/LAD all advanced to the CS round?

It's not a requirement, but I'm sure MLB appreciates being able to finalize all of their bubble arrangements now for Arlington for Oct. 18-28, rather than waiting and having to prepare contingency plans.

A new ballpark to show off in Arlington helped too, I am sure.

One thing I haven't seen discussed much is that SoCal is NOT an optimal location for the Twins to play. The two stadiums they've designated are cavernous, which plays against the Twins' offensive strengths.

I was just about to mention that!

Article in The Athletic (paywall) says the rate of "barrels to homers" in Dodger Stadium is actually higher than at Target Field the past 3 years, and suggests Petco is good for RH power which would help the Twins:

https://theathletic.com/2068889/2020/09/16/sarris-which-teams-should-benefit-most-from-mlbs-new-playoff-structure/

 

The Minnesota Twins, however, could be happy to fly to San Diego for their quarantine IPAs. They led the league from the right side, as their righties are pulling a whopping 36 percent of their balls in play in the air. No player right now has more pulled Barrels from the right side than Miguel Sano. Their lefties are more prone to spraying the ball to all fields, as only two teams see their lefties pull fewer balls in the air. The Twins have to make it there, but they’ll love it.

If the Twins are the 4 or 5 seed and they advance, they will be playing in San Diego (Petco) for the DS round. And the CS round is already set for San Diego too.

We're currently #4 seed as the best 2nd place team. We'd be 5th if the Yankees (currently 2 behind us) or Blue Jays (2.5) pass us. We'd drop to 7th or 8th if Cleveland (3) passed us.

One additional possibility:  I'm not sure MLB has yet given up on the possibility of some fans in attendance. Local laws apply. Texas, I've heard, is so far a bit more lax in terms of permitting attendance.

 

Not saying it's a good reason, just saying it's a possibility.

I'm guessing that's just wishful thinking or PR hopefulness from MLB? In-person fan attendance doesn't make all that much sense in a neutral site bubble situation.

It would be one thing to let a limited number of select Minneapolis residents into carefully controlled sections at Target Field for a game, but I'm pretty sure they will not want to deal with fans from various cities flying to California and Texas and coming into the stadium, while otherwise living completely outside bubble protocols.

Maybe a few rich people will get let in, like the Marlins jacket guy.

From https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/09/mlb-postseason-bubble-playoffs.html

 

" ... It also appears that there’s been some discussion of allowing fans in a limited capacity, as commissioner Rob Manfred suggested last night in an online event with Hofstra University’s business school (link via Evan Drellich of The Athletic). Whether that possibility is woven into the agreement is not yet clear."

 

That some people would pay good money to fly to Texas or California to see their team in the playoffs in such a peculiar time, and be part of a select few allowed in, socially distanced, wouldn't surprise me.

 

I mean, I have little interest in a motorcycle rally in Sturgis SD. But to see the Twins in the ALCS or World Series?  

Thanks, yeah, I saw that quote too. But Manfred is kind of infamous for saying he will consider anything! He said the same thing about the regular season, and the lack of progress on that front makes me doubt they'd try it out for the first time in their carefully orchestrated playoff bubble.

I don't doubt that people would be interested! I could see attendance limited to player families who are already "in the bubble", and of course a few high-profile high rollers quarantined themselves up in the luxury boxes, promoting FOX shows and the like. But I have a hard time imagining a ticket lottery for fans or anything like that.

every time I hear the fans in Texas doing their tomahawk chop chant for the Braves, or the LA fans cheering let’s go Dodgers, I recall this string. Given how the pandemic has played out, it wasn’t that far fetched to see MLB letting fans back in the stands.

You got me there. My mistake was being ignorant of the NFL/NCAA football attendance rules in Texas -- it isn't much of a stretch to see MLB just follow along with those.

I wonder what percentage of these fans are traveling for their teams? And I wonder if Atlanta and LA will object to fan attendance if the Astros advance and the WS crowd is overwhelmingly pro-Astros every game...