Did Edouard Julien Sell Out Too Much for Power?

The Twins had multiple reasons for trading Jorge Polanco. They needed to clear payroll somewhere, and his contract had positive market value. Just as importantly, though, Edouard Julien's emergence in 2023 pushed Polanco out.

Not unlike many of his teammates this season, Julien has endured a failure to launch. As Matthew Trueblood touched on, he became overwhelmingly passive at the dish out of the gate. Allowing the opposition to dictate at-bats is never going to be a fruitful strategy, and for a leadoff hitter expected to set the table, it left the lineup's would-be run producers starving.

Beyond just a patient approach though, Julien has leaned into a power approach. That’s not exactly surprising, given the Twins' desire to send baseballs over the fence at any opportunity, but it gets away from a lot of the things that he does well. A season ago, Julien hit 16 home runs in 408 plate appearances. He’s currently on pace to add about seven more round-trippers to that total in 2024, but that increase has come as part of a stretching toward two offensive extremes.

On the positive side, Julien’s ISO is up 15 points from 2023. He’s leaned into a higher launch angle and has slightly increased his barrel rate. His hard-hit rate has also gone up, and he’s putting more balls in the air. In and of themselves, each of those things are positive. Combining them with a few other realities currently at play, the downside shows up.

Last season, Julien dominated at-bats by controlling the zone and generating walks. His 15.7% walk rate has dipped to 11.8% this season, and his 34.2% strikeout rate has expanded the gap between good and bad outcomes. There’s also the type of contact he is generating with the trajectory of his bat through the zone.

While it is a positive that he’s striking the ball harder, it’s not to such an extent that the jump in fly ball rate is a good thing. Julien has never truly crafted himself as a power hitter, and putting the ball in the air is beneficial mainly if it’s a line drive or if it goes over the fence. Not enough of his batted balls leave the yard, and those that do aren’t often of the majestic type. Adding 18% to his fly ball rate would be fine if it came from the amount of time he put the ball on the ground, but he’s lost over 10% of his line drive production.

Not every player needs to find 25-home run power, and when they do, it often drastically changes how they go about competing on a per-plate appearance basis. What Julien was doing in 2023 would consistently result in getting on base, and occasionally running into a pitch for extra bases. The value in that profile is immense--especially so at the top of a lineup. Julien living for barrels has had him swinging out of his shoes, and showing expected results that are even worse than the actual outcomes.

When Byron Buxton hit 28 home runs during the 2022 season, it was all but over for him in transforming into a power hitter. He was never again likely to be a guy who drew walks (though, unlike Julien, he never really was one), and selling out for slugging had become his game. That is a bit more workable from a middle-of-the-order profile, but not what Julien should be looking to emulate.

Minnesota ultimately replaced Luis Arráez at second base with a player who could be an equally effective, but different, type of hitter. That only happens if Julien gets back to something of the approach he showed last season. While needing to make second-year adjustments is sensible, it’s more about reacting to the opposition's changes than it is altering your process at the plate.