A Solid Start for Trevor Larnach

Trevor Larnach is a former first-round pick in the same mold we’ve seen the Twins chase in the draft before with his bat-first profile. After his successful minor-league career, he’s been inconsistent thus far in his MLB career. Like his last two seasons, Larnach is off to an encouraging start. What can we expect moving forward?

The first key to Larnach’s MLB career thus far is that injuries reportedly were to blame for a steep decline in each of his first two seasons. In 2021, he looked like a well-above-average hitter before a freak hand contusion sapped his ability to swing the bat effectively. In 2022, he arguably looked even better before trying to play through a core muscle injury and ultimately being shut down for the remainder of the year. These may sound like cop-outs, but it’s what was reported.

To begin 2023, Larnach is again off to a hot start. His performance has matched what we’ve come to expect from his profile. Swing-and-miss is part of his game, as well as a strong understanding of the strike zone. He uses all fields when he needs to come up with a hit, and has already done so a few times in big situations. He had reached in the Twins' first 11 games of the season, a level of consistency that shouldn’t be overlooked given the health status and overall effectiveness of many of the Twins' middle-of-the-order hitters.

It is fair to wonder whether the other shoe could drop at any point. At the time of this writing, Larnach’s batting average is not backed up by an expected batting average of around .60 points lower. This could be partially explained by Larnach’s lack of barrels thus far, ranking in just the 25th percentile league-wide.

Larnach’s batting average likely begins to creep down as the sample size of at-bats grows. We’ve already seen it to an extent. This isn’t a big deal if Larnach can tap into some of his other skills. 

For starters, the expected stats don’t indicate that Larnach has gotten unlucky with his power thus far with his sub .300 expected slugging. Keep in mind that expected stats aren’t predictive and Larnach has too much power for such a power outage to last. Fangraphs gave Larnach impressive power grades as a prospect with a 65 for Raw Power and 50/60 Game Power. He’s flashed this ability several times already in his Twins career, hitting balls into the upper deck to dead center, a rare feat for a left-handed hitter at Target Field.

Gap power is also a big part of Larnach’s game, which we haven’t seen him tap into yet either. His ability to impact the ball to all fields is bound to begin splitting the outfielders and finding him extra bases at some point.

His performance against breaking balls and offspeed pitches remains his Achilles Heel, but it’s worth noting that this is the case with most hitters. The hope is that he can continue to improve in this area over time, but in the meantime, his eye and plate approach should result in some advantageous counts and ultimately fastballs.

Also of note in Larnach’s profile, he appears to have figured out how to hit left-handed pitching.

Left-handed hitters are expected to struggle against left-handed pitching, it’s just assumed in most cases. What Larnach has done against southpaws the last season plus has been unbelievable. The sample size is small, but nothing in these numbers presents as particularly fluky. Larnach’s ability to compete in these matchups makes him an everyday player. Players such as Nick Gordon have struggled mightily in these spots, and Max Kepler is one of the worst regulars in the MLB against left-handed pitching in his career. Larnach should continue to get everyday playing time regardless of matchup.

All things considered, it’s been a strange beginning to 2023 for Larnach. His batting average should drop off a bit, but the assumption should be that plenty more power is coming to make up for it. His plate approach should continue to carry him regardless of matchup, and as with all players with his offensive profile, we can likely expect some dry spells as well as some stretches where he’s absolutely on file. Health may be the biggest factor, but so far so good for Trevor Larnach.