Article: Kurt Suzuki - Signed to be the starter?

[jorgenswest]

This. The best stat is staff FIP, which, admittedly is not a good measure if you're Mike Aviles catching the best staff in baseball. But over a 10 career with a staff full of pre-arbitration pitchers, it works for me in Suzuki's case.

 

FIP is based on strike outs, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher has an influence on home runs or whether there would be enough home runs to distinguish between the catchers.

 

Suzuki does not compare well when comparing strike outs and walks with the other catchers on his 5 previous teams. He would not compare well according to FIP either.

 

It might be possible to use the actual home runs or normalize the home runs and come up with a FIP number, but I don't think that is necessary. The strike outs and walks are self explanatory. No one would argue that fewer strike outs and more walks is better.

 

In fact, if pitch framing has any meaning at all it would have to show up in those defense independent numbers. You would expect a catcher with below average pitch framing numbers to have a negative effect on a pitcher's k/bb ratio.

 

... as I write this I do wonder about home runs which I ignored. Are more home runs given up when a pitcher is behind in the count? If so, catchers may have an effect on home run rate. There is still no way to do it with just Suzuki's three seasons. Too few home runs are it in that sample.

[cmathewson]

FIP is based on strike outs, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher has an influence on home runs or whether there would be enough home runs to distinguish between the catchers.

 

Suzuki does not compare well when comparing strike outs and walks with the other catchers on his 5 previous teams. He would not compare well according to FIP either.

 

It might be possible to use the actual home runs or normalize the home runs and come up with a FIP number, but I don't think that is necessary. The strike outs and walks are self explanatory. No one would argue that fewer strike outs and more walks is better.

 

In fact, if pitch framing has any meaning at all it would have to show up in those defense independent numbers. You would expect a catcher with below average pitch framing numbers to have a negative effect on a pitcher's k/bb ratio.

 

... as I write this I do wonder about home runs which I ignored. Are more home runs given up when a pitcher is behind in the count? If so, catchers may have an effect on home run rate. There is still no way to do it with just Suzuki's three seasons. Too few home runs are it in that sample.

 

All I know is that the A's are consistently near the top of the league in pitching. Bean has traded more good pitchers than the Twins have developed over that span. Suzuki has to be doing something right.

[old nurse]

FIP is based on strike outs, walks and home runs. I am not sure how much a catcher has an influence on home runs or whether there would be enough home runs to distinguish between the catchers.

 

Suzuki does not compare well when comparing strike outs and walks with the other catchers on his 5 previous teams. He would not compare well according to FIP either.

 

It might be possible to use the actual home runs or normalize the home runs and come up with a FIP number, but I don't think that is necessary. The strike outs and walks are self explanatory. No one would argue that fewer strike outs and more walks is better.

 

In fact, if pitch framing has any meaning at all it would have to show up in those defense independent numbers. You would expect a catcher with below average pitch framing numbers to have a negative effect on a pitcher's k/bb ratio.

 

... as I write this I do wonder about home runs which I ignored. Are more home runs given up when a pitcher is behind in the count? If so, catchers may have an effect on home run rate. There is still no way to do it with just Suzuki's three seasons. Too few home runs are it in that sample.

 

If you are saying that the catcher is responsible for the balls and strikes then why didn't you run the numbers for ERA and win/loses? Swinging strikeouts versus called strike 3? That there is or isn't a stikeout is not always on the catcher. What is the difference in how the games are called. Yes you can state with 100% certainty that There are more strikeouts when others were catching, and more ball 4 when Suzuki was catching.

If you wish to say there are outcomes based on K% and BB% consider that Suzuki's numbers are better than the Twins over the last three years

[jay]

For those who don't seem to think that Suzuki is responsible in some way, shape, or form for the differences in K%/BB% (call it framing, game calling, farting, whatever you want) compared to a large number of other catchers in a significantly large sample size... please, share with us why you think it is occurring.

[old nurse]

For those who don't seem to think that Suzuki is responsible in some way, shape, or form for the differences in K%/BB% (call it framing, game calling, farting, whatever you want) compared to a large number of other catchers in a significantly large sample size... please, share with us why you think it is occurring.

The premise was that a lower K% and higher BB% were somehow bad. I asked for proof. There is how you call a game. There is what you are trying to do with each pitch. There have been long threads on shifting. Are you doing shifts because of the pitch you are throwing is going to strike him out? There are many different goals with each pitch.

 

Prove the outcome of a game is different with Suzuki in there. That is my point.

[Willihammer]

Huh, ESPN has a catcher stat CERA (catcher ERA) but it seems to be broken for Suzuki (the stat is arguably broken anyway). 650 innings for Oakland without allowing an earned run obviously isn't right.

 

Baseball-reference has some catcher stats including RerC which stands for BIS Catcher Pitch Calling Runs Above Average. I don't know how its calculated but Suzuki has typically scored around league average or a few runs below.

 

EG. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/2013-fielding.shtml#players_standard_fielding_c::16

[jay]

The premise was that a lower K% and higher BB% were somehow bad. I asked for proof.

 

I can't see how it possibly wouldn't be bad, but I do get what you're asking now. I'm not sure where or if that data exists, maybe someone else does. If you want to look at runs allowed for Suzuki vs others, you run the risk of introducing other variables such as if he generally caught certain members of the staff. I liked the original analysis because it stays simple and broad enough to be pretty definitive.

[old nurse]

I can't see how it possibly wouldn't be bad, but I do get what you're asking now. I'm not sure where or if that data exists, maybe someone else does. If you want to look at runs allowed for Suzuki vs others, you run the risk of introducing other variables such as if he generally caught certain members of the staff. I liked the original analysis because it stays simple and broad enough to be pretty definitive.

It is broad but not definitive in the big picture of the game. It show that Suzuki needs a little work. If he didn't, he wouldn't be signed for what he was paid. In the analysis. Is he better than "others" catcher? Probably not as it was he who was traded and not "others". Not exactly high level prospects either. He will start as the starter because he was probably the best available option after AJ signed elsewhere.

If runs allowed when he caught are not allowed because of the variations in staff, how could balls and strikes be?

Lower K and higher BB is not bad if it also means there were less well hit balls. Joe Niesse has a worse K% and BB% than Jermey Hefner yet had .5 lower ERA. Something happened as each had about the same number of starts.

[jorgenswest]

I could have compared other data. One could compare runs given up or OPS against. It is there for anyone to assemble and comb through.

 

Strike outs and walks are thought to be defense independent. It seemed the place to start. If they did not show a difference, I don't think anything else could have meaning.

[old nurse]

I could have compared other data. One could compare runs given up or OPS against. It is there for anyone to assemble and comb through.

 

Strike outs and walks are thought to be defense independent. It seemed the place to start. If they did not show a difference, I don't think anything else could have meaning.

 

The ability to strike out or walk batters is not catcher depedent but pitcher dependent. The variabilty of a pitcher from day to day to strike people out is highly variable. The variability from pitcher to pitcher to strike people out is large. you assume over time that the catchers would catch each pitcher an equall number of times. You would appear to me to then also assume that a pitcher's good day and bad days are catcher dependent.

You see a differnce in the numbers, you have to ask yourself why. You blame the Suzuki, but do not control for any other variable. The other variables have meaning. They do influence % for the catcher.

[jay]

The variabilty of a pitcher from day to day to strike people out is highly variable. The variability from pitcher to pitcher to strike people out is large. you assume over time that the catchers would catch each pitcher an equall number of times. [/Quote]

 

Yes. It's a large enough sample that you can make all of those assumptions. With a large enough sample, all of those variables level out or come close enough to doing so that they aren't statistically relevant. You can add which ballparks he caught in, teams he caught against (ie, their team's strategy at the plate), day vs night, and many others to the list as well. The only way the assumption doesn't hold is if you have proof that Suzuki generally caught certain pitchers and not others.

[cmathewson]

The ability to strike out or walk batters is not catcher depedent but pitcher dependent. The variabilty of a pitcher from day to day to strike people out is highly variable. The variability from pitcher to pitcher to strike people out is large. you assume over time that the catchers would catch each pitcher an equall number of times. You would appear to me to then also assume that a pitcher's good day and bad days are catcher dependent.

You see a differnce in the numbers, you have to ask yourself why. You blame the Suzuki, but do not control for any other variable. The other variables have meaning. They do influence % for the catcher.

 

I agree that the catcher can't control variables of stuff. But he can help the pitcher craft outs by calling the right pitches in the right locations in the right counts. If the pitcher is capable of executing on the game plan, the catcher can really help him. No catcher can help a guy throw a slider with more bite. The catcher can frame good strikes, but if the pitcher leaves it up and over the plate, there's nothing he can do but watch it fly.

[jorgenswest]

[TABLE=width: 284]

[/TD]

[TD]Suzuki

Others

Colon

3.80

4.17

Detwiler

2.43

2.00

Gonzalez

2.44

2.77

Griffen

2.50

3.60

Haren

3.77

5.67

Jackson

1.80

3.13

McCarthy

2.74

4.20

Miline

4.27

3.48

Parker

1.63

2.46

Straily

1.90

2.23

Strasburg

2.30

4.39

Zimmerman

4.19

3.46

[/TABLE]

 

The data above is k/bb data by individual pitcher in 2012-2013.

 

I collected this data, but I did not share it originally because each split of a pitcher does not have enough data to draw any conclusions. It would not be accurate to state that Suzuki was better or worse for any given pitcher based on the splits. There simply aren't enough starts for an individual.

 

I post it now because it is reasonable to wonder if Suzuki's numbers were biased by not catching Strasburg or the other better pitchers.

 

I think it may be possible to go to the pitch level data from pitchf/x and identify the types of pitches or zones where a catcher has not done well. Two positives might result.

 

- The catcher may see through video study how he needs to change a technique with a certain type of pitch or location. It should be possible with hard work and attention to improve this skill.

 

- Certain catchers may match certain pitchers based on their strength. For example, Mauer does much better getting extra high strikes than low strikes

 

All of that would be learned at the pitch level and not the plate appearance result level. For progress, the Twins would need to trust in the data from pitchf/x and then use it to inform roster and line up decisions as well as using it to improve the individual skill of each receiver.

 

My assumption, based on their roster decisions since Mike Fast's study came out in 2011, is that they are not among the teams that trust this data yet.

 

Let's hope they have taken the correct direction with the catcher position.

[old nurse]

[TABLE=width: 284]

[/TD]

[TD]Suzuki

Others

Colon

3.80

4.17

Detwiler

2.43

2.00

Gonzalez

2.44

2.77

Griffen

2.50

3.60

Haren

3.77

5.67

Jackson

1.80

3.13

McCarthy

2.74

4.20

Miline

4.27

3.48

Parker

1.63

2.46

Straily

1.90

2.23

Strasburg

2.30

4.39

Zimmerman

4.19

3.46

[/TABLE]

 

The data above is k/bb data by individual pitcher in 2012-2013.

 

I collected this data, but I did not share it originally because each split of a pitcher does not have enough data to draw any conclusions. It would not be accurate to state that Suzuki was better or worse for any given pitcher based on the splits. There simply aren't enough starts for an individual.

 

I post it now because it is reasonable to wonder if Suzuki's numbers were biased by not catching Strasburg or the other better pitchers.

 

I think it may be possible to go to the pitch level data from pitchf/x and identify the types of pitches or zones where a catcher has not done well. Two positives might result.

 

- The catcher may see through video study how he needs to change a technique with a certain type of pitch or location. It should be possible with hard work and attention to improve this skill.

 

- Certain catchers may match certain pitchers based on their strength. For example, Mauer does much better getting extra high strikes than low strikes

 

All of that would be learned at the pitch level and not the plate appearance result level. For progress, the Twins would need to trust in the data from pitchf/x and then use it to inform roster and line up decisions as well as using it to improve the individual skill of each receiver.

 

My assumption, based on their roster decisions since Mike Fast's study came out in 2011, is that they are not among the teams that trust this data yet.

 

Let's hope they have taken the correct direction with the catcher position.

 

In the Mike Fast study he looked at 5 year window. Over that 5 year span other than LuCroy and Molina at the top, Pasada and Doumit at the bottom it appeared that over 120 games the range of runs saved or lost was under 15. In terms of runs saved that is not that often it would have an effect on the game

[jay]

In the Mike Fast study he looked at 5 year window. Over that 5 year span other than LuCroy and Molina at the top, Pasada and Doumit at the bottom it appeared that over 120 games the range of runs saved or lost was under 15. In terms of runs saved that is not that often it would have an effect on the game

 

It is widely accepted that, on average, a difference of roughly 10 runs equates to a win. If you also accept that the average cost of buying a "win" on the free agent market is roughly $5-6 million, you're talking about a very significant amount of value.

[DocBauer]

I feel that a C is much like a true or natural PG in basketball. Neither position/player can always be defined in the absolutes of statistics. In many cases its about how they run the team and a "feel" of how they do so and how the team and players around them respond. In both cases, it often can be just taking control of situations and being a calming influence to teammates.

 

Like many managers/coaches, I think Gardy likes to, at least initially, trust the veteran player. I feel this may be true of Suzuki vs Pinto. And I wouldn't be surprised to see Suzuki as the primary backstop opening day. As has been pointed out, this allows Pinto to not only earn the position, but have mentoring from Suzuki, Mauer and Steinbach. Three experienced and very good sources!

 

And thus far, I don't recall anything negative from Gardy in regard to his belief in Punto. I believe he slowly overtakes Suzuki and becomes the primary option by all star break at the latest.

[old nurse]

It is widely accepted that, on average, a difference of roughly 10 runs equates to a win. If you also accept that the average cost of buying a "win" on the free agent market is roughly $5-6 million, you're talking about a very significant amount of value.

 

In theory 10 runs equalls a win. But you have to buy into the pitch framing is the cause of close pitches being called and that close called pitches have an effect on ERA

An article referenced anothr article http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5/12/506919/a-nibble-here-a-nibble-the

It is on the effect of close called pitches on ERA. Nothing I have seen would lead me to believe there have been changes since.

[jorgenswest]

In theory 10 runs equalls a win. But you have to buy into the pitch framing is the cause of close pitches being called and that close called pitches have an effect on ERA

An article referenced anothr article http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/5/12/506919/a-nibble-here-a-nibble-the

It is on the effect of close called pitches on ERA. Nothing I have seen would lead me to believe there have been changes since.

 

If a catcher suppressed a pitchers strikeouts and increased a pitchers walks, would that have an effect on runs scored?

 

Is there a reason that the k/bb ratio while Suzuki is catching is lower than when a teammate is catching? Is it possible that his poor pitch framing numbers are driving some of that difference?

 

The data presented was about strike outs and walks. I should have not distracted the thread by bringing in the possible connection to pitch framing.

[jay]

But you have to buy into the pitch framing is the cause of close pitches being called and that close called pitches have an effect on ERA

 

The numbers presented show that pitchers throwing to Suzuki have a lower K/BB ratio than when throwing to other catchers. Call that framing, call it luck, doesn't really matter.

 

K/BB shows a negative correlation to ERA. The lower it goes, the higher ERA goes. You raise the point as if you're saying that in these situations, that correlation won't exist. It just doesn't seem plausible... at all.