Twins Top 15 Prospects

[jasonmets66@yahoo.com]

http://gradingonthecurve.com/2013/12/17/minnesota-twins-top-15-prospects/

[lightfoot789]

If Walker had 12 more hits (153 instead of 141) and 12 more walks (43 instead of 31) last season - he would have garnished a stat line that read [.308 BA & .354 OBP].

 

Considering that is 12 lucky bounces and 12 off the plate Balls instead of called Strike 3's - Where would that have placed him on the various Prospect list out there? Assume no extra base hits to that total and Assume that this is an arguable yet realistic hyperthetical - How much range is given for variables in anaylzing prospects across the board? Would these numbers be considered a true plate discipline adjustment over the course of a season or merely luck? Thoughts...................

[lightfoot789]

BTW - Different list than most I've seen but still interesting.

[DaveW]

If Walker had 12 more hits (153 instead of 141) and 12 more walks (43 instead of 31) last season - he would have garnished a stat line that read [.308 BA & .354 OBP].

 

Considering that is 12 lucky bounces and 12 off the plate Balls instead of called Strike 3's - Where would that have placed him on the various Prospect list out there? Assume no extra base hits to that total and Assume that this is an arguable yet realistic hyperthetical - How much range is given for variables in anaylzing prospects across the board? Would these numbers be considered a true plate discipline adjustment over the course of a season or merely luck? Thoughts...................

 

The walks bit is a little off the mark IMO, you are talking about over 33% more walks in a season. The whole "off the plate ball instead of X" works the other way. If he has 12 less hits or 12 less walks in the season it is near disastrous.

[lightfoot789]

The walks bit is a little off the mark IMO, you are talking about over 33% more walks in a season. The whole "off the plate ball instead of X" works the other way. If he has 12 less hits or 12 less walks in the season it is near disastrous.

 

That makes sense. I was just wondering how much wiggle room scouts give prospects in terms of defining their tendencies and / or statistics (Ex: BB / K's / OBP). Sano improved from .373 to .424 in OBP from A to High A. That is a huge increase (.051). Reports say he just learned to stay off the down and away breaking balls. He struck out the same rate but improved his walk ratio. It is a game of adjustments. If I see guys make certain adjustments (Ex: improved K rate) - why is it so far fetched that one could and probably would, improve in other areas like BB rates? Scouts constantly assume that one will become a power hitter despite the fact that an individual has never hit for power before. His swing plain dictates that? or His future size dictates that? I would love to hear from Minor League coaches as to what the organizational approaches are for various prospects throughout thier development. In more detail. How do you expect an individual to achieve this task.

 

Other sports are more revealing as to how they expect their young players to improve. QB's must work on this part of their game because they have a tendency lock on to WR's - etc. or a Point Guard needs to know when to force a ball inside and when to take an open shot when - etc.............

 

Baseball always seems to state that the player needs to make adjustments. It is rarely discussed, the day to day interactions with coaches that help a player get to that improvement level. Prospect "A" needs to take more pitches in his at bats or Prospect "B" needs to be more aggressive in his at bats or Prospect "C" needs to improve his bat speed because doesn't connect on pitches away enough. ETC. ETC. - I want to hear about prospect approaches moving through the organization - and how they are implemented mentally.

[RinaldiPhotos]

http://gradingonthecurve.com/2013/12/17/minnesota-twins-top-15-prospects/

 

 

I don't see a problem with this list from 1-7. Probably push Kohl Stewart to #4 because Rosario is quite old for his level and has questions in term of future position and his suspension. I would slide Walker into 8, Pinto into 9 and Kepler to 10. If you put Rosario at 5, then 5-7 are interchangeable. I am not completely sold on Walker yet, although I do like him quite a bit. I would love to see him fill out his frame and you could be looking at a lot better overall player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not sure Kepler belongs in the top 10 at all at the moment. No question on the ceiling, but the results thus far haven't exactly been overwhelming.

[beckmt]

Kepler has the issue of only having 3 years to get to the bigs. This year will be critical for Kepler. With Rosario out for 50 games, Polanco has the opportunity to pass him, that will be critical for this list, both can hit but Polanco will probably be able to stay at 2B or SS. Walker may be a little high on this list, but this is perception and can live with it. There were many other possibilities for this list, so it will be interesting to see how they all play out.