Morneau

[drjim]

Mike Napoli, Adam Lind (has an option), James Loney and Mike Morse have all hit better than Morneau this season, including his recent HR binge.

 

Morneau is still 20th out of 25 in OPS for 1B with >350 PA. This has been stated many times but 1B is one of the easiest positions to fill. There are better players out there to fill the spot if Ryan chooses to avail himself of the free agent market.

 

I won't argue those names, but I also don't think it is a sure thing any of them would be clearly better than Morneau next year. There just isn't that much out there.

[Mike Sixel]

One thing to consider is that there really isn't a legit FA 1B next year (or many difference making positional player FAs total). Kendrys Morales is probably the best and he really isn't even that good. Morneau might be second.

 

I meant FA in general, any position......like, pitching, for example. Unless you want to count on this year's rotation, and Meyer and May.....

[Oxtung]

I won't argue those names, but I also don't think it is a sure thing any of them would be clearly better than Morneau next year. There just isn't that much out there.

 

I think this is very similar to the FA pitcher discussions we've had (I'm not looking to restart them I am just drawing a parallel in thought process). You seem to only want players that are guaranteed to be upgrades. I look at it more from a probability perspective. If there is a 60% chance the FA is an upgrade (and he isn't blocking a prospect, the contract is reasonable, yada yada) then the move should be made. To me baseball is too unpredictable to guarantee anything.

[PseudoSABR]

I look at it more from a probability perspective

I'm sure jim does too (not that I should speak for him). But really, we all use our own personal probablistic model, which we base on all kinds of information (statistical and otherwise), which, again, we all weigh differently. For some of us, investing in debatably above average options isn't worth the risk.