Twins Avoid Arbitration with Bailey Ober

[Cody Christie]

The Twins continued their arbitration housekeeping on Thursday by reaching an agreement with Bailey Ober, avoiding a hearing and keeping one of their longest tenured starters in the fold for the 2026 season.

According to KSTP’s Darren Wolfson, Minnesota and Ober settled on a $5.2 million deal that covers the upcoming season. Ober remains under team control through 2027, meaning he will be arbitration eligible one more time before potentially reaching free agency. MLB Trade Rumors projected Ober to earn $4.6 million, so the right-hander came out ahead in the process, earning a notable raise despite a down year.

That dip in production was real. Ober endured the toughest season of his big league career in 2025, never quite getting right after dealing with a lingering hip injury. Even with time off, the issue persisted, and Ober ultimately tried to pitch through it. The results reflected that struggle. His fastball velocity dipped, his margin for error shrank, and hitters punished more mistakes than they had in previous seasons.

Over 146 1/3 innings, Ober posted a 5.10 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP, numbers that looked jarring compared to his typically steady profile. Home runs were a significant problem (1.8 HR/9), and the lack of velocity made his trademark command-based approach far less effective. Still, the Twins clearly believe there is enough of a track record to justify the investment, as his second year of arbitration eligibility brings a $1.65 million raise and a continued spot in the rotation.

Assuming health, Ober remains a key part of Minnesota’s pitching plans. The rotation is expected to be anchored by Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, with Ober firmly in that next tier if he looks anything like his pre-2025 self. His ability to eat innings, limit walks, and deliver reliable starts has been invaluable when he is right.

That said, the margin for error is thinner than it once was. Behind the projected top three sits a wave of young arms eager to make their mark. Simeon Woods Richardson showed he belongs. Zebby Matthews is knocking on the door. Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and David Festa all bring varying degrees of upside and urgency. The competition is real, and it is not going away.

Even deeper down the pipeline, help could arrive by midseason. Kendry Rojas continues to develop into an intriguing option. Marco Raya and Connor Prielipp have the stuff to force the issue if they aren’t moved to bullpen roles. Andrew Morris has quietly put himself on the radar as well. Minnesota’s organizational pitching depth means performance will matter more than pedigree.

For Ober, the path forward is straightforward. He must show that the hip injury is behind him and that his velocity and command have returned. If he does, the Twins have a mid-rotation starter on a reasonable salary who can stabilize things behind Lopez and Ryan. If not, the pressure from below will only intensify.

Thursday’s agreement is a vote of confidence, but it is not unconditional. The Twins avoided arbitration and secured cost certainty, while Ober earned a raise and another opportunity to prove that 2025 was the exception, not the new rule. How he responds will go a long way in shaping Minnesota’s rotation not just in 2026, but beyond.

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[Jeff K]

And no agreement with Ryan.  

[thelanges5]

Ober gets $600k over projection and had a crappy season. They won’t give Joe $500k. Hard to be a fan of this org. What are we doing?

[sweetmusicviola16]

45 minutes ago, thelanges5 said:

Ober gets $600k over projection and had a crappy season. They won’t give Joe $500k. Hard to be a fan of this org. What are we doing?

Exactly. They agree to pay Ober 5.2mil for a lousy season and uncertainty over health. They file with Joe Ryan for 5.85mil. C'mon Falvey and Pohlad's. If Bailey is worth 5.2 then Joe is worth 6.35 that he's asked for, not 600k more. Nice way to continue to alienate likely your top asset in the organization. My guess is Joe Ryan would more than likely welcome a trade out of here. No way he will ever extend here. An overpay probably won't even do it. Next the team gets to run Joe down in an arb meeting. Dysfunction at it's finest on display. 

[Larry Janisewski]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Exactly. They agree to pay Ober 5.2mil for a lousy season and uncertainty over health. They file with Joe Ryan for 5.85mil. C'mon Falvey and Pohlad's. If Bailey is worth 5.2 then Joe is worth 6.35 that he's asked for, not 600k more. Nice way to continue to alienate likely your top asset in the organization. My guess is Joe Ryan would more than likely welcome a trade out of here. No way he will ever extend here. An overpay probably won't even do it. Next the team gets to run Joe down in an arb meeting. Dysfunction at it's finest on display. 

Totally agree about Ryan not being happy as a Twin.