Edouard Julien’s Development Dilemma: Chasing Improvement Or a Mirage?

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, arby58 said:

I appreciated your 'he can't hit them' comment - a true first LOL of the day.

Taking Rodriguez and Jenkins out of the discussion because we have no way of knowing how the Twins would use them, but one of the differentiators for a player besides offense is defense. None of the remainder of the group you mentioned (Wallner, Julien, Larnach) is a particularly good defensive player, and Julien's defensive runs saved at 2B is well below average. Even when Buxton isn't hitting, you want him in the lineup for his defensive play and disrupting speed on the bases. It's possible either Rodriguez or Jenkins will also provide that differentiation.

Also, none of the three were ever a top 10 prospect in all of minor league baseball, ala Jenkins. He might end up being a Kyle Tucker type of player who plays every day regardless of who is pitching. My prediction is that if he is putting up Tucker-like numbers, he'll play everyday.

These 2 lefty hitters are pretty similar, right? You probably take the one on the left, but neither has crazy better surface stats, right?

One of them is currently playing on a 4 year, $79 million deal and is rumored to be working on another similar deal as an extension. They'll have made $100 million by the end of this year (their 10th MLB season). The other just finished a 1 year, $12.5 million deal and is playing on a 1 year, $15.75 million deal with 2 option (1 player, 1 mutual) years for 21.25 and 18.5 after. They'll have made $57 million by the end of this year (their 11th MLB season).

Neither is a good defender in the least.

Kyle Schwarber had a .481 OPS against lefties his rookie year. Then .648 and .654. He wasn't platooned. Those first 2 numbers aren't significantly higher than Wallner's. After those first 3 years he jumped up into the .700s for OPS against lefties and has mostly maintained that. And he's going to make $100 million more than Pederson for his career. 

Our concern is that they're going to treat Rodriguez and Jenkins the same as the rest. We don't know if they will, but all signs point to it and that's our concern. And, again, Wallner put up an OPS over .900 against lefties in multiple seasons at AA and AAA. .900! But that isn't enough to get him an early shot at everyday playing time. Your prediction can be that for Jenkins, but we haven't seen it. If they have 4 or more lefties they can't platoon them all. But going back to at least 2021, the Twins have platooned all their lefties during any time they have 3 or fewer lefties on their roster. Always. With no exception. Our concerns are valid as they're based on real life, actual decisions made by the Twins.

Pederson wasn't even platooned his first full season. And had a .691 OPS against lefties. Tanked (.469 OPS) against them his second season while being platooned. Platooned again his 3rd year at .597. Has essentially been platooned ever since his 2nd year and has seen his limited PA OPS bounce around, but his career OPS against lefties is .630. Not .450 or anything, but he's a platoon bat now and it's cost him significantly. There are very real consequences to guy's careers.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Joc has played for six teams (Dodgers, Cubs, Braves, Giants, Diamondbacks, Rangers) and can't get any of them to play him regularly against LHP - you think there might be a reason?

There is a reason for everything.  I don't know but I will suggest... front office conjecture. 😉

In 2014 which was the last full season in the minors for Joc. He had 206 PA's vs left handed pitchers in Albuquerque and he produced a .994 OPS against them. 385 PA's against right handed pitchers and he produced a .980. 

In 2015 with the Dodgers... Joc had 129 PA's vs left handers and produced a .691 against them. Compared to his .784 against RH. Joc was the primary CF that year... his outfield mates were Andre Eithier and Carl Crawford who are also left handed hitters and Yusiel Puig a right handed hitter. 

In 2016 he dropped down to 64 PA's vs lefties and an OPS of .469. And Boom... Just like that... Joc was a right handed hitting specialist for the rest of his career. In 2016... Apart from Joc... The Dodgers other OF options were all right handed. Puig, Kendrick, Thompson and Kike. The Dodgers were left handed in the infield with Seagar, Adrian Gonzalez and Chase Utley. Only Utley platooned with Kike sliding over to 2B against the southpaw and he produced a .669 OPS vs LH. The right handed hitting Kendrick had an OPS of .625 vs LH. 

What did the Dodgers gain? What did Joc lose?