Minnesota Twins Now Have Difficulty Finding Room for Kyle Gibson

[cmathewson]

Let's keep in mind that that 130-inning thing is just a ballpark figure. While it was reported secondhand, I've yet to see a quote direct from a Twins official giving any sort of figure. And even the secondhand quote said 130-140, and that was in February before they even knew how Gibson's arm was going to respond.

 

He'll get some MLB time this year, and he'll be with the club from day one next year.

 

Antony was quoted by Jesse with that number. Ryan was quoted as saying it more of a guideline than a rule. But the science is pretty clear: Guys who add more than 30% of their innings from one year to the next are extremely susceptible to long periods of dead arm the following year. If they push it too far this year, they are risking a lot of failure next year. See Liriano, Francisco. See Bill James and Rob Neyer for the science.

 

By the Twins count, he threw 70 innings between instructs and the AFL last year. That would make 91 innings this year if you follow the 30% rule. The Twins are using more of a 50% rule this year. This is itself a risk, if you buy the science. They are really pushing it beyond 130.

[LaBombo]

Antony was quoted by Jesse with that number. Ryan was quoted as saying it more of a guideline than a rule. But the science is pretty clear: Guys who add more than 30% of their innings from one year to the next are extremely susceptible to long periods of dead arm the following year.

Not sure, but it seems to me that Ryan was referring not to an innings limit, but rather his policy regarding not getting involved with possessed people...

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