Minor League Report 6/16 Jaylen Nowlin Cruises; Matt Wallner and Nate Baez Crush

[chpettit19]

16 minutes ago, gbg said:

I clearly need to read your posts before making my own, because twice now you've gotten there sooner than me with more detail! :-)

No, keep writing your own! I'm just here for extra support 🙂 Sometimes it's fun to respond to something and then go back and scroll to see who's agreed or disagreed already. Keeps us a little unbiased at least. Or so I'd like to think.

[bean5302]

On 6/18/2024 at 11:34 AM, chpettit19 said:

No, keep writing your own! I'm just here for extra support 🙂 Sometimes it's fun to respond to something and then go back and scroll to see who's agreed or disagreed already. Keeps us a little unbiased at least. Or so I'd like to think.

In retrospect (I thought Wallner's production days were just lucky blips) think he started to find his swing fairly quickly in what looked like some blips actually started forming a trend. It's hard to trend power hitters like Wallner because they're prone to stretches of boom/bust. Wallner was probably already much more comfortable by May 1, and his results after that period are within the guidelines of noise. Some of his worst "results" stretch in May that drag down his performance actually corresponded to excellent walk rates with low BABIP.

[chpettit19]

18 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

In retrospect (I thought Wallner's production days were just lucky blips) think he started to find his swing fairly quickly in what looked like some blips actually started forming a trend. It's hard to trend power hitters like Wallner because they're prone to stretches of boom/bust. Wallner was probably already much more comfortable by May 1, and his results after that period are within the guidelines of noise. Some of his worst "results" stretch in May that drag down his performance actually corresponded to excellent walk rates with low BABIP.

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree here. From May 7 through June 2 (so the 4 series after they finished with the Bats horrid pitching staff) Matt Wallner had a .180/.306./.427/.733 quad slash. A basically month long "bust" stretch can't just be written off as noise. Matt Wallner was not good until early June, when they played the Bats again. I don't know why that can't be an acceptable answer to you, but going 14 for 89 in AAA is not just bad BABIP luck.

Actually, if you take the entire stretch between series against the Louisville Bats he went .196/.308/.455/.764 in 31 games and 133 PAs. He was 22 for 112 with 43 Ks (K in nearly 40% of his ABs) between series against that horrid staff. Listen, you claimed he was "raking for months." That isn't true. He went .194/.256/.333/.590 in April in the 9 games before he played the Bats. In the 31 games between series against the Bats he went .196/.308/.455/.764. There's your trend. In the first series against the Bats he went .240/.296/.480/.776. In the last series he went .519/.552/.1.148/.1.700 with a .500 BABIP. He hasn't hit over .200, had an OBP over .308, slugged over .455, or had an OPS over .764 outside of his absolute dominance of the Louisville Bats. 

A 31 games stretch of .196/.308/.455/.764 is not "raking." I'm sorry. I'm not going to continue with this conversation. Outside of the Louisville Bats series there has been absolutely no sustained stretch of production that comes anywhere close to "raking." There just hasn't been. He's dominated that pitching staff and been held under a .200 average against everyone else. That isn't raking. It just isn't. And there's nothing there to suggest he started finding his swing early. There just isn't. You don't get to just write off all his struggles as noise and claim that his dominance over a single opponent is actually the real Matt Wallner. Let's see what he does in the next few series against some non-Bats staffs.