Brecht

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Brody Brecht,  Hawkeye,  currently a top 15-25 prospect is a player I am going to be watching that could be someone the Twins target.   Fastball gets up to 102, very very good slider and then questionable control.  He went 6 innings yesterday against auburn  2 runs, 11 SO.  60 strikes in 100 pitches.  Better than his slightly better than 50% strike rate in his first outing.  He is one that could climb into the top 10,  but I think 20-30 range is where he ends up.  

[2wins87]

On 2/24/2024 at 5:25 PM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Brody Brecht,  Hawkeye,  currently a top 15-25 prospect is a player I am going to be watching that could be someone the Twins target.   Fastball gets up to 102, very very good slider and then questionable control.  He went 6 innings yesterday against auburn  2 runs, 11 SO.  60 strikes in 100 pitches.  Better than his slightly better than 50% strike rate in his first outing.  He is one that could climb into the top 10,  but I think 20-30 range is where he ends up.  

Besides control, the issue is, will he make it to the Twins?

So far he's made it to pick 21 in 0 of 10 mocks that I've tracked.  It's still really early so we'll have to see how he and the rest of the class shake out.

Pretty crazy results so far though, K-ing nearly 50% of batters faced, walking over 20%, but just an .086 BAA. (all singles). Extreme in every way.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Besides control, the issue is, will he make it to the Twins?

So far he's made it to pick 21 in 0 of 10 mocks that I've tracked.  It's still really early so we'll have to see how he and the rest of the class shake out.

Pretty crazy results so far though, K-ing nearly 50% of batters faced, walking over 20%, but just an .086 BAA. (all singles). Extreme in every way.

He has a high ceiling but he is right around where we would take him and there would be a ton of variability.  If teams see him as a reliever (a 2 pitch pitcher),  Joyce was selected in the third round.  It all comes down to his stats his year.  He is closer to a 3 ERA he will get drafted top 10.  His ERA is in the 4's he is likely a 20 to 30 pick.   Its no different than last year Dollander dropping from consensus #1 pick to #9.   I don't follow the draft early that much but he is definitely a player I am keeping tabs on.  The draft

[2wins87]

15 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

He has a high ceiling but he is right around where we would take him and there would be a ton of variability.  If teams see him as a reliever (a 2 pitch pitcher),  Joyce was selected in the third round.  It all comes down to his stats his year.  He is closer to a 3 ERA he will get drafted top 10.  His ERA is in the 4's he is likely a 20 to 30 pick.   Its no different than last year Dollander dropping from consensus #1 pick to #9.   I don't follow the draft early that much but he is definitely a player I am keeping tabs on.  The draft

Early consensus seems to be in the 10-20 range, but I can see the argument that he'll either be top 10 or 20+ and with no in-between.

Right now, I have Trey Yesavage and Jonathan Santucci tagged as college pitchers that could be available and types the Twins might like.  If Brecht makes it to them, maybe the stuff is too good to ignore even with the control issues/reliever risk.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Early consensus seems to be in the 10-20 range, but I can see the argument that he'll either be top 10 or 20+ and with no in-between.

Right now, I have Trey Yesavage and Jonathan Santucci tagged as college pitchers that could be available and types the Twins might like.  If Brecht makes it to them, maybe the stuff is too good to ignore even with the control issues/reliever risk.

Brecht lines up with what they like, elite slider excellent fastball.  

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I have seen 2 drafts where he has dropped to 23 to 24,  however against weaker competition,  he has dominated the last 3 weeks.  Struck out 36 in 22 2/3rds innings and only 2 earned runs during those 3 games.  Before that stretch he was struggling and looking more like a 2nd round pick.  He his so tantalizing yet at other times struggles to get through 3-4 innings.   I think he is likely a top 20 pick but still some one to keep an eye on.  

[nicksaviking]

Sounds intriguing, but I don't like the idea of the Twins 'fixing' a college guy's control issues. It's so rarely ever accomplished.

They've been way better at adding velocity to guys who don't have control issues.

[2wins87]

18 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Sounds intriguing, but I don't like the idea of the Twins 'fixing' a college guy's control issues. It's so rarely ever accomplished.

They've been way better at adding velocity to guys who don't have control issues.

This is generally my thought process as well, which is why I was into Yesavage early, though he's now pitched himself out of the Twins reach.

I will say that Brecht is an athletic multi-sport athlete who is relatively new to pitching, which is part of the case for him putting it together at some point.  There was really no sign of improved control for the first half of the season, but he's walked a lot fewer in his last couple outings.  If he sustains better control for the rest of the season he could look a lot more attractive, but that could also make another team picking in the teens more interested as well.

Right now I like Ryan Forcucci and Gage Jump as guys with fastballs with great movement/secondary characteristics.  Already pretty solid velocity for both but still maybe a little room for growth.  More round 2 or 3 guys though with durability concerns.

For their first pick I'm still thinking they should probably lean into the strength of the draft and take a college bat who falls out of the top 20.  Several catchers in play there.

[Cory Engelhardt]

So Brecht may be figuring a few things out. Over his last 3 starts, he has thrown 7 2/3, 7 and 8 innings respectively, with 3, 3 and 2 walks, and 12, 11 and 13 k's. 2 earned runs total in that span. If he continues this, he won't at all be available at 21.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

So Brecht may be figuring a few things out. Over his last 3 starts, he has thrown 7 2/3, 7 and 8 innings respectively, with 3, 3 and 2 walks, and 12, 11 and 13 k's. 2 earned runs total in that span. If he continues this, he won't at all be available at 21.

For comparisons sake this was against the following vaunted teams,  Rutgers,  Nebraska (best of the bunch, 3rd in B1G) and Northwestern (awful).  

[Cory Engelhardt]

8 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

For comparisons sake this was against the following vaunted teams,  Rutgers,  Nebraska (best of the bunch, 3rd in B1G) and Northwestern (awful).  

His stuff is still pretty elite, it's always been command of it. IF he can get to anywhere close to average command, his stuff will play.

But you are right, this ain't SEC competition.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

25 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

For comparisons sake this was against the following vaunted teams,  Rutgers,  Nebraska (best of the bunch, 3rd in B1G) and Northwestern (awful).  

The slider is wicked.  Right now it his best pitch by far and the best locating it.  The fastball doesn't ride much,  but has elite velocity,  does struggle a bit with command.  Hovers 97 to 98 can push to 100.  He really needs a 3rd pitch, add that with a little better command of the fastball with a little more movement and you are set.   His focus has not been baseball til this year.  I thought we would have seen a bigger jump lately.  The real question isn't so much if the command will improve I think it will.  Its if he is a reliever or a starter.   Yes I wouldn't be surprised if someone picks him before us but my guess is he is still there unless he tears up for the rest of the season.  I do agree there should be some very solid bats available at our pick as well.  Brecht has potential #1 ability though with his 2 pitches,  if he can find a usable 3rd with slightly better command,  he will really boost the pipeline.  As an aside the team has been picking more players with command issues just look at last years draft.  Several with command issues,  granted they weren't picked in the early rounds LOL.