Finding the Next MAT/Farmer

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Introduction

The biggest difference between the '22 Twins and the '23 Twins was depth. Arraez, Correa, and Buxton all contributed a lot more to the Twins in '22 than last year, but the difference between players like Jermaine Palacios and players like Kyle Farmer is enormous. Seeing Mark Contreras, Aaron Sanchez, Sandy Leon, Jake Cave, Tim Beckham, Caleb Hamilton, Tyler Thornburg, and Juan Minaya suit up in a Twins uniform gave the team no chance to be competitive down the stretch. Stevenson, Luplow, Garlick, and Keuchel were really the only undeserving AAA veteran depth that played more than a game for the '23 Twins. By acquiring several veterans, the Twins significantly raised the floor of the roster and helped the team improve by nine wins (MAT, Farmer, and Solano accounted for 5.3 bWAR, accounting for more than half of the improvement). Unfortunately, many of those veterans are leaving in free agency, and the Twins will need to find cheap replacements again. Let's look at some players, both hitters and pitchers, who can fill some voids on the Twins roster.

Criteria

1. One excellent trait. MAT is an excellent defender and Kyle Farmer hits lefties well and can play every infield position. Veterans usually bring a strong all-around game, but to have upside, veterans being brought in need to have an A+ trait.

2. Cheap in terms trade compensation. The two prospects given up in the MAT trade are equivalent to basically any minor-league free agents available right now. Any player available should be worth less than two Twins top-20 to 30 prospects (about $5M on BTV) to ensure that the Twins can make multiple of these moves without destroying their farm.

3. Cheap in terms of financial compensation. A big reason to perform these types of trades is to avoid overpaying in free agency. Players like Manuel Margot, Willy Adames, Josh Bell, and Anthony Rizzo meet the criteria above but are all due to make more than $12M next year. A limit of $8M of salary will be imposed.

Options

#1 Jose Urquidy

If you can't beat 'em, trade for their #5 starter. Urquidy has been shopped for the past couple of offseasons, but no deal has ever materialized. This year, however, Houston may be more inclined to deal the righty due to his underperformance in '23 and their crop of rookie pitchers that established themselves throughout last year. On the Twins, he'd be a high-level swingman with loads of postseason experience (46.1 IP), and he somewhat fits the mold of what the Twins are doing. His changeup generates a lot of chases and whiffs, and he rarely gives away free passes; Pete Maki should like what he'll be working with.

Cost: the Astros have a penchant for developing weird, unheralded pitchers. CJ Culpepper is fair compensation for two years of Urquidy.

#2 Tyrone Taylor

Tyrone Taylor is a very similar player to Michael A Taylor. Average offense with base-stealing speed and elite outfield defense. A bit of a late bloomer, Tyrone still has three years of team control left. Both Taylors don't walk, they chase too much, and they generally post low batting averages. MAT had an unexpected power output this season, which really propped up his offensive value, while Tyrone has exceeded MAT's .442 2023 SLG every year of his career. He may cost a little bit more in a trade than the other names on this list, but he's a slightly better version of MAT with three years of control.

Cost: for a player with lots of control, Milwaukee will want some high-ceiling prospects. Tanner Hall and Ariel Castro are a competitive package to offer.

#3 Andrew Kittredge

I don't want to see Cole Sands make the opening-day roster, do you? The Twins' front office refuses to spend prospects or money on relievers whose names don't rhyme with Horse-hay stick-of-pez, but Kittredge should be cheap and available. He was the best non-closer reliever in 2021, posting a 1.88 ERA (with peripherals to back it) with outstanding strikeout and walk numbers. Unfortunately for him, he missed most of the '22 and '23 seasons with TJ surgery. His stuff was not as sharp as it was when he came back, but he is 33. He throws strikes, gets chases, and gets lots of extension, and he'll probably only make $2M-$3M next year. Lots to like at a low price.

Cost: BTV has his value as negative; take your pick of non-top 30 prospects and send one to the Rays. We'll say Alex Scherff for the former 45th-round pick.

#4 Jace Peterson

The Twins have plenty of depth in the infield if they keep Kyle Farmer and Jorge Polanco, but what are the odds that both of them are on the opening day roster? As much as I'd love to see Brooks Lee in Minneapolis (we should when he is ready), if Farmer, Polanco, and Gordon are not on the '24 Twins, we'd have to turn to a Jermaine Palacios type of player if one or two guys get hurt. Peterson provides super-utility defense (ability to play every infield spot and LF/RF), base stealing speed, and super-professional PAs (low chase and high walk rate). For $5M next season, Peterson could replace Willi Castro's '23 role if Castro is moved or given a permanent defensive spot.

Cost: he has negative BTV value, and Arizona acquired him at the deadline for basically nothing. Wladimir Pinto is a lottery ticket and fair compensation.

#5 Kyle Higashioka

The Twins don't need a new catcher, but they could move Jeffers and/or Vazquez this offseason. If either one leaves the team, Higashioka is a superior player to any of the free-agent catchers. He is an outstanding framer who provides a decent bat behind the plate. He calls good games and certainly brings a higher floor than Tom Murphy. The Yankees will likely want to give former Twin Ben Rordvedt a shot in the majors next year, and Higashioka may be shopped. If the Twins create a vacancy behind the plate, Higashioka should be the first name on the shortlist to fill it.

Cost: Catchers are in short supply, and he won't be cheap. Jose Salas and Ben Ross should be enough to entertain Brian Cashman

Final Thoughts

If the Twins are going to make some wonky MLB player for MLB player trades, they'll need to find cheap replacements to ensure that their roster stays intact through a 162-game season. By grabbing some high-floor players with applicable skill sets, the Twins can ensure that depth remains a strength of the organization. These type of December/January moves go a long way in August/September when the team is banged up, going through a slump, and you need a consistent presence in the lineup and clubhouse. All five of these guys could provide the same veteran savvy that MAT and Farmer brought last year for a similarly low cost.

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

Urquidy grades out really well with his stuff. I’d be all over bringing him in if he were to be available