TwinsAce’s 2024 Payroll Blueprint

[TwinsAce]

I like the idea of going after one of the top pitchers on the market.  This is hopefully with one of Jordan Montgomery/Gray/Yoshinobu/Rodriguez /Stroman filling in that rotation spot for about $20-$23 million.  However, this restricts a lot of the other moves to more supplemental depth moves or trades.  I still have enough to throw at Kevin Kiermaier, who was mentioned with the Twins recently as a potential fit.  Instead of Moran, who I don't trust, I have a random bullpen guy for $1.5 million.  I might push for that to be Pagan for closer to $3 million.  Competing with Sands would also be other minor league type deal guys, looking for the next Brock Stewart.  If Kiermaier doesn't work, I'd probably pivot to putting the money in the bullpen or a surprise bench piece and promoting Martin sooner than later. 

Bullpen guys I'd monitor the price for includes Diekman, Stephenson, Reynaldo Lopez, Keller (minor league deal??), Maton, Neris, Stanek, Stratton, Chavez, Edwards Jr, Kelly, Melancon, and Suter.

If I whiff on the top pitchers and/or Kiermaier, another route would be to go crazy and surprise people by signing Bellinger and then the 2nd tier of SPs would be Hyun-jin Ryu, Maeda, and Shota Imanaga. (Heaney?)  This would hopefully be a similar swap of money, but would require more longer term $$ with probably 5-7 years with Bellinger vs. 2-5 for the top pitchers.

I'm open to trading Farmer or Polanco, but see the value in keeping Kepler as a #6 hitter ideally.  Farmer and Polanco are nice problems to have.  Farmer could be moved if the payroll is tight and we find a good RP deal.  I'd be okay with Lewis/Lee as the backup SS if need be.

• C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M)
• 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.77M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M)
• LF: Matt Wallner ($0.77M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M)
• DH: Edouard Julien ($0.77M)
• 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M)
• Utility: Kevin Kiermaier ($9.00M)
• Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M)
• Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.77M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.77M)
• SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M)
• SP5: Jordan Montgomery/Gray/Yoshinobu/Rodriguez/Stroman ($22.00M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.77M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.77M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.77M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.77M)
• RP: XYZ Pitcher ($1.5M)
• RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.77M)

Payroll is 1.59% under budget

[tony&rodney]

So 2-3 new guys. That is a pretty stable team.

[TwinsAce]

It is possible and probable they end up trading or signing more guys for next year.  They seem to end up signing 2 SPs when there is only 1 spot, but this seems more like a minor league deal this year vs. starting roster.

This is also excluding the usual 4-10 minor league deal signees that at least 1-3 end up pushing the roster in spring training due to injuries or performance.  Bullpen is the area I can see have 2-3 new guys, but I doubt any of them are big signings.

[Vanimal46]

Nice work! A common theme I'm seeing as people make their plans, is the Twins can go with quality over quantity this year with the budget. We don't need to stretch the $40 million to sign 8-9 players this year. 

[TwinsAce]

On 11/7/2023 at 9:04 AM, Vanimal46 said:

Nice work! A common theme I'm seeing as people make their plans, is the Twins can go with quality over quantity this year with the budget. We don't need to stretch the $40 million to sign 8-9 players this year. 

I know the new budget might make this a little trickier, but I think this still applies.  I think they ideally would focus in one 2-3 players to distribute most of the remaining budget to with the remaining spots focusing on depth / minor league type deals.  And then what is more likely is that we see 1-2 of the Farmer, Polanco, Kepler trio traded to help offset.