Minors HR vs Majors HR

[amjgt]

Not really sure which forum this belongs in, but I was reading the "Molitor" thread in this forum and it sparked a question.

 

Specifically people were talking about Buxton's power potential vs Trout. Based on what Trout did last year I was thinking that may have been a little aggressive on that commenter's part. So I did some digging...

 

Trout had 23 HR in what was basically 2 full seasons of minor league ball. That surprised me a bit based on Trout's 30 HR in most of one full MLB season last year.

 

Here's where the question comes in....

For players who either have elite bat speed or in inane ability to square up pitches (I think we'd put Buxton in those categories) does the move to the major leagues actually increase their power potential because of the presumed increase in average pitch velocity they are seeing on a daily basis?

 

So, assuming Buxton is going to square up a 93mph fastball just as easily as a 88mph fastball, how much more of the time will that 93mph fastball turn into a HR than a 88mph fastball?

 

Conversely, we see players like Parmelee who rake at AAA but get to MLB and lose a ton of power. Truth be told, he obviously hasn't LOST the power he just lacks something that Buxton probably has which is the ability to equally handle an increase in pitch velocity. Parmelee was relying on that 88mph fastball to be able to hit HR because he can't square up a pitch must faster than that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There's probably a lot more to it than velocity. I can think of a few things... Age is a big one. Guys continue to get stronger into their late 20s which can see improvements. Minor league seasons are shorter as well, so hitting a few more HRs over the course of a season is reasonable too.

 

In the pros, you have far more than increased velocity. The breaking pitches are better as well.

 

I'm sure there are some qualities that translate to the majors much better than others, but trying to project them on guys like Buxton vs. Parmelle doesn't work. For one, Buxton doesn't see very many good breaking pitches at his level. Parmelee does. While Parm has definitely struggled, I'm a bit unhappy that he isn't playing every day. I get that he hasn't exactly earned it, but we walked into this season wanting to know what we had and he was benched within a month after getting off to a decent start and cooling off. I don't see how this really answers any of those questions. Perhaps Morneau or Willingham gets traded so we can answer that a bit better later this year, but in a lost cause season, you have to give a guy like Parmelee the chance to prove himself.