Consensus MLB Draft Board V2

[2wins87]

 

36 minutes ago, Grandpaboy said:

Twins-friendly Cubs fan here--do the Twins usually play the Draft "straight" or do they often go way under-slot/over-slot in order to create value? I see them picking Clark or whoever falls to 1-5 and then balancing the HS risk with a college bat (Gelof?) at 34. Assuming you can get him for $2m ($480k under) or so, that leaves roughly $3.1m combined for their picks at 49 & 82. You could get very creative there and go after a "tough sign" HS pitcher...kind of what the Cubs did with Jackson Ferris last year. I envy you guys--have fun and thanks for the great work, Jamie!

I think they play it pretty straight for the most part. 

The first year of the Falvey and Levine regime was 2017 when they saved some money on Royce Lewis with the #1 overall pick and nabbed HS pitcher Blayne Enlow overslot with the first pick in the 3rd round.  Lewis got a smaller bonus than Hunter Greene, but wasn't really a reach at #1 in what turned out to be a pretty weak draft (I mean, no one who knows anything about draft history will criticize you for passing on a HS pitcher #1 overall).

This will be their highest overall pick and easily their largest pool since then.  Their tendency is to go for impact bats early, with a bit more emphasis on college guys with good data behind them, and then to target college pitchers on day 2 and 3 who are somewhat under the radar, often from smaller baseball programs, who have aspects that leads the front office to believe they can develop them into much better pitchers.  Two of their current rotation pieces Ober and Varland were developed that way.

Given their tendencies your scenario seems very plausible.  I would also be pretty into a scenario where they go for upside via one of the deep group of HS SS prospects at #34 regardless of whether they got one of the HS OF at #5.  That might be a less likely and less balanced scenario, but I would argue still a good way to use their high picks and slot money that doesn't come around very often.

Either way it is an exciting draft to be in their position with what should be a much better and deeper draft class than 2017.  I think I am a fan of the new draft order lottery system even if the Twins don't get lucky again for a long time.

[Mike Sixel]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

#2 overall in December.  Watch the video to hear Mayo gush.  Clear top 3 on a tier of their own was Dollander, Crews and Langford.

https://www.mlb.com/news/draft-top-100-prospects-list-2023

And? He's #7 now, and the #2 pitcher. He hasn't TUMBLED....I really don't get your point here. 

[2wins87]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Whats the deal with Braden Taylor, moved down 10+ spots but still #2 on Fangraphs board with a 50 FV?

Fangraphs hasn't updated their board since before the college season started and they were already higher on Taylor than anyone else.  He has hit pretty well but not on the level of pretty much any of the college bats ahead of him, many of whom also play in the SEC or ACC.

[Jamie Cameron]

2 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Whats the deal with Braden Taylor, moved down 10+ spots but still #2 on Fangraphs board with a 50 FV?

That board hasn't been updated since March-ish (maybe some guys have been added). Almost every other board has moved Taylor down (regression of in-zone contact numbers). Still think he has a really good profile to succeed.

[Jocko87]

40 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And? He's #7 now, and the #2 pitcher. He hasn't TUMBLED....I really don't get your point here. 

Tumbled is your word.

I said slipped and I think 5-8 slots depending on where you look for someone being called the next Strasburg/Cole is a significant move.  He hasn’t been as good as last year but he was damn near perfect in 2022.