When will we see Joe Ryan pitch for the Twins?

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I don't think so, no.

Well, who should Ryan rank above in the Twins system, for example? Here's Twins Daily's list. I'm not trying to be difficult, only to illustrate how elite top 100 prospects are. Ryan ranks below Miranda, who (sometimes shockingly) still doesn't crack midseason top 100 lists. I can't fathom ranking Ryan above Miranda right now.

So who gets bumped? Now we need to bump a couple of guys. Balazovic? Nah, not gonna bump him for both Ryan and Miranda. No way do Martin & Lewis (comedic duo) get bumped.

My point being that it becomes a lot harder once you start using real names and prospects.

 

[Dodecahedron]

I agree that it's hard.  My point is I have seen much higher rated players with far worse numbers, and many of them did not do well in the majors.  We have all seen it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, Dodecahedron said:

I agree that it's hard.  My point is I have seen much higher rated players with far worse numbers, and many of them did not do well in the majors.  We have all seen it.

Using MLB performance isn't a fair measuring stick, though, because just look at this guy:

Analysts, including the highly paid and informed ones employed by teams, can only use the information they have on hand at the time and, as we all know, baseball is a helluva sport with wildly unpredictable outcomes, much moreso than any other major sport.

[Otto von Ballpark]

As an aside, to put "top 100" into some context, here is how the FV (Future Value) scores break down on the Fangraphs list:

1-23: 60 FV or better

24-48: 55 FV

49-138: 50 FV

139-178: 45+ FV

179-312: 45 FV

You can see how the talent distribution flattens pretty quickly -- they basically had to invent an extra "half-step" grade of 45+ just to differentiate the mass of prospects at that level.

Back to Ryan, Fangraphs specifically has Ryan at 45 FV at the moment, which I guess might track closer to 200 than 100 but again, rankings and grades are all pretty fluid as you get deeper into the back half of the top 100.

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, Otto von Ballpark said:

As an aside, to put "top 100" into some context, here is how the FV (Future Value) scores break down on the Fangraphs list:

1-23: 60 FV or better

24-48: 55 FV

49-138: 50 FV

139-178: 45+ FV

179-312: 45 FV

You can see how the talent distribution flattens pretty quickly -- they basically had to invent an extra "half-step" grade of 45+ just to differentiate the mass of prospects at that level.

Back to Ryan, Fangraphs specifically has Ryan at 45 FV at the moment, which I guess might track closer to 200 than 100 but again, rankings and grades are all pretty fluid as you get deeper into the back half of the top 100.

Wow, I knew the curve flattened but 49-312 only has a gap of 5 FV. I mean, it makes some sense because there are always Brian Doziers and damned good players hiding just beyond the limits of that 100 list but damn, that gap is *so small*.