Is this the offseason to extend Revere?

[Willihammer]

OPS is a convenient stat when you want to undersell a no power high contact speed guy.

 

One of the differences between extending Revere now, compared to Blackburn, is that Blackburn was coming off two of the best seasons you could reasonably expect to get from a guy with his stuff. Guys who get no strikeouts and rely on batted ball luck and borderline strike calls have very low floors, as we all know by now. The luck Blackburn had in 2008-2009 just doesn't go on for years on end.

 

Revere on the other hand, has his value preserved by speed. Speed is a large part of the reason Span's deal didn't prove a bust when his luck returned to earth likek Blackburn's. Yes, there is risk Revere breaks an ankle or strains a calf and he becomes worthless until healed. Injury risk is part of the genesis for these team friendly deals in the first place. But if he doesn't miss significant time, then worst case scenario we get more of what we've already seen with Revere's .308 BABIP and ultra low walk rate. There is a cliche, "speed never goes in slumps." Advanced stats are starting to prove the truth in that. Speed that is as elite as Revere's is worth roughly 2-3 wins/year on average, in just baserunning and defense. That, or production a hair below that, is his floor.

 

The ceiling is something like Juan Pierre's age 25-30 seasons where he had a couple .320, .340 BABIP years. I believe that Revere is capable of improving his ground ball tendencies and improve his walk rate by just taking more pitches in hitter counts (Pierre hit the ball on the ground 61% of the time in his age 24 season), during his arbitration years, and then the savings will start to be realized.

 

There is also the fact that where Pierre was peaking towards the end of the steroid era, Revere is peaking during a time where the stolen base and speed are more valuable than ever. The break even point on stolen bags is down to like 64%. Its ridiculous. So there is some marginal value there just by virtue of how his arbitration years line up with leaguewide trends.

[ThePuck]

OPS is a convenient stat when you want to undersell a no power high contact speed guy.

 

One of the differences between extending Revere now, compared to Blackburn, is that Blackburn was coming off two of the best seasons you could reasonably expect to get from a guy with his stuff. Guys who get no strikeouts and rely on batted ball luck and borderline strike calls have very low floors, as we all know by now. The luck Blackburn had in 2008-2009 just doesn't go on for years on end.

 

Revere on the other hand, has his value preserved by speed. Speed is a large part of the reason Span's deal didn't prove a bust when his luck returned to earth likek Blackburn's. Yes, there is risk Revere breaks an ankle or strains a calf and he becomes worthless until healed. Injury risk is part of the genesis for these team friendly deals in the first place. But if he doesn't miss significant time, then worst case scenario we get more of what we've already seen with Revere's .308 BABIP and ultra low walk rate. There is a cliche, "speed never goes in slumps." Advanced stats are starting to prove the truth in that. Speed that is as elite as Revere's is worth roughly 2-3 wins/year on average, in just baserunning and defense. That, or production a hair below that, is his floor.

 

The ceiling is something like Juan Pierre's age 25-30 seasons where he had a couple .320, .340 BABIP years. I believe that Revere is capable of improving his ground ball tendencies and improve his walk rate by just taking more pitches in hitter counts (Pierre hit the ball on the ground 61% of the time in his age 24 season), during his arbitration years, and then the savings will start to be realized.

 

There is also the fact that where Pierre was peaking towards the end of the steroid era, Revere is peaking during a time where the stolen base and speed are more valuable than ever. The break even point on stolen bags is down to like 64%. Its ridiculous. So there is some marginal value there just by virtue of how his arbitration years line up with leaguewide trends.

 

Have you read Bill James' 1982 article entitled 'So What's All the Fuss?'?

[Brock Beauchamp]

OPS is a convenient stat when you want to undersell a no power high contact speed guy.

 

One of the differences between extending Revere now, compared to Blackburn, is that Blackburn was coming off two of the best seasons you could reasonably expect to get from a guy with his stuff. Guys who get no strikeouts and rely on batted ball luck and borderline strike calls have very low floors, as we all know by now. The luck Blackburn had in 2008-2009 just doesn't go on for years on end.

 

Revere on the other hand, has his value preserved by speed. Speed is a large part of the reason Span's deal didn't prove a bust when his luck returned to earth likek Blackburn's. Yes, there is risk Revere breaks an ankle or strains a calf and he becomes worthless until healed. Injury risk is part of the genesis for these team friendly deals in the first place. But if he doesn't miss significant time, then worst case scenario we get more of what we've already seen with Revere's .308 BABIP and ultra low walk rate. There is a cliche, "speed never goes in slumps." Advanced stats are starting to prove the truth in that. Speed that is as elite as Revere's is worth roughly 2-3 wins/year on average, in just baserunning and defense. That, or production a hair below that, is his floor.

 

The ceiling is something like Juan Pierre's age 25-30 seasons where he had a couple .320, .340 BABIP years. I believe that Revere is capable of improving his ground ball tendencies and improve his walk rate by just taking more pitches in hitter counts (Pierre hit the ball on the ground 61% of the time in his age 24 season), during his arbitration years, and then the savings will start to be realized.

 

There is also the fact that where Pierre was peaking towards the end of the steroid era, Revere is peaking during a time where the stolen base and speed are more valuable than ever. The break even point on stolen bags is down to like 64%. Its ridiculous. So there is some marginal value there just by virtue of how his arbitration years line up with leaguewide trends.

 

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

 

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

[Willihammer]

 

Have you read Bill James' 1982 article entitled 'So What's All the Fuss?'?

 

I have now. Its a good read but James is hung up on the stat itself and ignoring the broader skill of good baserunning that good basestealers tend to be. First to third, first to home, 2nd to home, tagging on short pop flies, etc. These are all peanut skills in an of themselves but when you can do all of them, and steal 50-60 bases when given full playing time, the peanuts add up quickly. There is also the fact that the Twins are among the worst teams at hitting home runs in an era when homeruns are trending down leaguewide.

[ThePuck]

 

Have you read Bill James' 1982 article entitled 'So What's All the Fuss?'?

 

I have now. Its a good read but James is hung up on the stat itself and ignoring the broader skill of good baserunning that good basestealers tend to be. First to third, first to home, 2nd to home, tagging on short pop flies, etc. These are all peanut skills in an of themselves but when you can do all of them, and steal 50-60 bases when given full playing time, the peanuts add up quickly. There is also the fact that the Twins are among the worst teams at hitting home runs in an era when homeruns are trending down leaguewide.

 

I'm not sure Revere is quite the good baserunner yet, even with his speed. Saw him take a good lead at 1B, the batter had two strikes and there were two outs (so, he should have know he was off at the crack of the bat), the ball was a clear, no doubt double bouncing all the way to the LF wall (so he would have seen that on his way to 2B). The batter/runner glided into 2B and Revere ended up on 3rd. With his speed he should have cruised into home.

 

He has some work to do and he needs to work on getting on-base at a better clip.

[Willihammer]

Baseball Reference tracks situation baserunning. Revere is above average in every respect

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reverbe01-bat.shtml

 

comparison to league average.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2012-baserunning-batting.shtml

 

Fangraphs measures the baserunning value at 14 runs over the past two years, playing 120 games/season.

[Willihammer]

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

 

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

 

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

 

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

[FrodaddyG]

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

 

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

 

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

 

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?

[ThePuck]

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

 

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

 

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

 

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

 

I wanna see how he does upon his return to the leadoff spot...where he'll likely see less fastballs. Again, his power is non-existent, so his OBP needs to be significantly higher than average. If he becomes a #9 hitter, and he won't yet, might not for awhile, that makes it even less important to extend him

[Willihammer]

And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?

 

You have a point. But I think we all know Gardy will slot Revere at leadoff whether he deserves to be there or not, after which point I imagine it becomes a lot less easy for the Twins to say in any contract negotiation or arbitration hearing that Revere is not your team's leadoff hitter. As it is, arguing for him being the 9 hitter may be tough, since Gardy batted him mostly in the 2 hole when Span was here.

 

Honestly, I don't know if his spot in the lineup matters much anyway, either from a strategic standpoint or a contract negotiation standpoint. My argument boils down to the fact that barring injury, regardless of where you bat Revere or place him in the outfield, he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.

[ThePuck]

Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

[DaveW]

he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.

 

If by a little batted ball luck you mean an increase of 100+ points in OPS over night then you are correct.

 

I still tend to think WAR gives to much credit to defense and base running, (especially defense at a non premium position like OF) so WAR shouldn't be as a stand alone IMO

[Kwak]

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

 

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

 

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

 

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

Once you introduce Hicks into the discussion you have negated the need to extend Revere. By your own words you classify Revere as a #9 batter and Hicks as a #1 batter--who will average nearly a full plate appearance more than a #9 batter--and clearly is more important.

[Kwak]

And why, exactly, should locking up a NUMBER 9 HITTER be a priority for a team that just lost close to 100 games two straight seasons?

 

You have a point. But I think we all know Gardy will slot Revere at leadoff whether he deserves to be there or not, after which point I imagine it becomes a lot less easy for the Twins to say in any contract negotiation or arbitration hearing that Revere is not your team's leadoff hitter. As it is, arguing for him being the 9 hitter may be tough, since Gardy batted him mostly in the 2 hole when Span was here.

 

Honestly, I don't know if his spot in the lineup matters much anyway, either from a strategic standpoint or a contract negotiation standpoint. My argument boils down to the fact that barring injury, regardless of where you bat Revere or place him in the outfield, he is going to deliver a relatively fixed value that is around 2 wins at minimum, for every 160 games played, due to his speed, and could be as high as 4-5 wins with a little batted ball luck.

Then any fast guy is worth two wins. Do theTwins have any more of these guys? If so, no need to obligate the team to Revere.

[Willihammer]

Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

 

This is a somewhat circular argument. Part of the reason Mauer batted well with runners on base last year is that the guys in front of him were speedy. Mauer had a .288 BABIP on ground balls, in part because the mere threat of having Span or Revere standing on 1st created a nice hole for him on the 2nd base side. Then there is the fact that Span and Revere both run 1st to 3rd, 1st to home, 2nd to home at a rate higher than league average.

[Willihammer]

Then any fast guy is worth two wins. Do theTwins have any more of these guys? If so, no need to obligate the team to Revere.

 

Revere isn't any fast guy. He's the fastest player in baseball over the last two years, if you put any stock in fangraphs baserunning and defensive metrics. And no, bringing Hicks into the discussion doesn't cancel anything. Where guys bat in the order tends to be overblown. I would only call him a 9 hitter inasmuch as it might be favorable for the Twins in a contract negotiation.

[ThePuck]

Oh and Mauer bats way too well with RISP to bat leadoff...

 

This is a somewhat circular argument. Part of the reason Mauer batted well with runners on base last year is that the guys in front of him were speedy. Mauer had a .288 BABIP on ground balls, in part because the mere threat of having Span or Revere standing on 1st created a nice hole for him on the 2nd base side. Then there is the fact that Span and Revere both run 1st to 3rd, 1st to home, 2nd to home at a rate higher than league average.

 

Mauer has always batted well with RISP. .343/.460/.498 for his career. And a runner on 1st base isn't considered a batting opportunity with RISP

[jun]

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

 

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

 

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

 

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

 

My opinion is no teams in the MLB would extend a #9 hitter. Is he really that important? He is not going to get faster as he gets older. That's his only asset!

[TheLeviathan]

Good god....this thread is still going? Regardless of what Ben Revere is or is not - extending guys with roughly 2 years of service time is not a good idea. It is almost never done and for good reasons, all of which have been laid out ad nauseum.

 

The fact that Revere has many question marks as a starter long term only bolsters what is already a definitively bad idea.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Which is fine and dandy if your speed guy is getting on base at an acceptable clip. Revere's ability to do that is very much up for debate. If Revere was walking anywhere close to 10% of the time, I'd be WAY more bullish on him as a player.

 

It doesn't matter how fast you can run back to the dugout.

 

What is acceptable? Revere's .333 OBP was .014 points higher than average.

 

but, my argument all along is that Revere should be extended, and paid, as a 9 hitter, not as a replacement for Span in the order at leadoff. Mauer or Hicks might be the better choice for that.

 

.350 is good, .360 or higher is better.

 

But really, I want a guy who isn't so reliant on BABIP so I look at BB%. 8% is pretty good, 9-10% is better. Span walked around 8.5% of the time last season, I believe. Mauer was almost at 14%, IIRC. Revere was around 5%. That's bad.

 

And as others have mentioned, you don't worry about extending your #9 hitter.

[Willihammer]

To me, its more a question of when, not if. Between Revere's speed and his ability to put the ball in play, he could post a .340 BABIP or higher in any given season like Pierre has, and Span has, in which case he becomes that .350 OBP, 4-5 win player, and a lot more expensive.

[snepp]

To me, its more a question of when, not if. Between Revere's speed and his ability to put the ball in play, he could post a .340 BABIP or higher in any given season like Pierre has, and Span has, in which case he becomes that .350 OBP, 4-5 win player, and a lot more expensive.

 

And then you cash that chip in, deal him to someone else, and let them pay.