Twins vs Indians, 09-19-2012, 6:10pm

[glunn]

i know "wins" is an overrated stat, but i'm happy for liam...

 

amen!

[CDog]

 

And give up the excellent turkey sandwiches they sell at the park? Those things are good!

 

Where do you find them? I've not had one yet.

[Top Gun]

Mike Trout is my MVP. Say what you want about the triple crown stats, but Trout's been so much more valuable on the basepaths and with the glove that if you look past homers and RBIs, it's not even really that close. Cabrera might have taken one for the team in moving to third, but by most metrics (and by the eye test) he's the worst (or second-worst) third baseman in the league defensively, so he isn't offering value there. And he's not burning up the basepaths either, nor can you give either credit for 'carrying the team to the postseason' or being 'all alone' on a good team...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Mike Trout is my MVP. Say what you want about the triple crown stats, but Trout's been so much more valuable on the basepaths and with the glove that if you look past homers and RBIs, it's not even really that close. Cabrera might have taken one for the team in moving to third, but by most metrics (and by the eye test) he's the worst (or second-worst) third baseman in the league defensively, so he isn't offering value there. And he's not burning up the basepaths either, nor can you give either credit for 'carrying the team to the postseason' or being 'all alone' on a good team...

 

MVP voting is one of the few areas where I feel it's fair to use RBIs and Runs. The MVP balloting is about results and while RBIs are team-influenced, they are also firmly based on results. Cabrera drove in that run and helped his team win. That cannot be debated. Trout scored that run and helped his team win. That cannot be debated. How it came about is kind of irrelevant. RBIs and Runs are nearly useless when trying to predict a player's future performance but in results-based voting such as the MVP or HoF, they should be used to judge how a player performed.

 

And Cabrera has a whopping 53 more RBI than Trout. He's also leading in OPS, BA, OBP, HR, and most offensive metrics. Trout has him in defense and base running. Overall, I think it's close but given how voters historically lean in their voting, I think it's Cabrera's award to lose.

 

Plus, voters should notice that Cabrera is putting up an OPS over 1.200 in September while Trout is scuffling with a .778 mark. That matters. Both of their teams were contenders going into the month and one guy has stepped up while the other faltered.

[snepp]

You do realize that's a verbatim copy/paste from a Rotoworld blog, yes?

[IdahoPilgrim]

 

And give up the excellent turkey sandwiches they sell at the park? Those things are good!

 

Where do you find them? I've not had one yet.

 

There are two stands - one on the main level, one on the top level. Both are behind home plate.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You do realize that's a verbatim copy/paste from a Rotoworld blog, yes?

 

No, I did not realize that.

[Willihammer]

Fangraphs basically destroyed the RBI/MVP argument for Cabrera earlier this week. For starters, if you're going to just measure side by side Trouts rbi totals and Cabrera's then you also have to measure Cabrera's 28 GIDPs to Trouts (7). They are both products of hitting when runners are on base. Sort of goes with being a leadoff hitter compared to a 3 hole hitter.

 

Then there is the part about what each hitters does after getting on base. Conveniently, they get on base at virtually the same clip, but Trout makes way more of the opportunities. Money quote:

 

The fact that Trout has 18 additional runs scored despite playing in those 21 fewer games shows the magnitude of the difference that baserunning can make, and it’s of course silly to only consider runs created with the bat and ignore those with the legs. Trout has scored 45% of the times he’s been on base — easily the highest of any regular in the AL — compared to a league average of just 31% and Cabrera’s 28% total. Yes, some of that is having Albert Pujols hit behind him, but of course Prince Fielder hits behind Cabrera, mitigating the argument that run scored percentage is solely a function of the guy hitting behind you.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If you're going to count RBI, you have to count Runs. I mentioned earlier that Trout definitely has the advantage in runs scored. Is the entire package of Trout enough to overcome Cabrera's RBI and offensive totals? Well, I think that depends on what you're looking at. If you asked me whether I'd want Trout or Cabrera on my team in 2012, I'd choose Trout every time. He's the more rounded and capable player.

 

On the other hand, "MVP" is a nebulous term. Cabrera is a run-producing monster who is leading or near the top of every offensive category in the AL. He's also "turning it on" exactly when his team needs him the most, posting an OPS of 1.126 in the second half. As with most MVP arguments, it comes down to what you think is most valuable.

 

I won't shed any tears if Trout wins the award. I'd probably give it to Miggy if I had a vote but I tend to sway more toward the player who is helping keep his team in contention down the stretch, not the guy who is scuffling a bit as the Angels teeter on the edge of falling out of the Wild Card race. Either way, it's an interesting debate.

 

PS. It's crazy that Trout has scored 45% of the time he has reached base. That's insane.

[Willihammer]

As the great TK once said, "remember guys, the first inning counts!"

 

Same goes the season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

As the great TK once said, "remember guys, the first inning counts!"

 

Same goes the season.

 

Of course it counts. And when the pressure is on, guys who perform deserve recognition for it. Every game counts the same but there's a big difference between a hot streak with 140 games left and a hot streak with 10 games left when your team is just a few games out of the division lead. One can mean the playoffs while the other means your team still has 140 games left to win/lose the division.

[Willihammer]

Well that the is oversimplification of the year. By your logic, Trout will have played exactly 1 good game, because he was called up for the 21st game of the year, and sat out one game since.

 

What you are trying to mystify as waffling under pressure could just as easily be described as a dip in BABIP. He's still getting on base at a .368 clip, stealing bases, and playing premium defense for the month.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well that the is oversimplification of the year. By your logic, Trout will have played exactly 1 good game, because he was called up for the 21st game of the year, and sat out one game since.

 

What you are trying to mystify as waffling under pressure could just as easily be described as a dip in BABIP. He's still getting on base at a .368 clip, stealing bases, and playing premium defense for the month.

 

I'm not saying he's waffling under the pressure at all. I'm simply saying that if the Tigers make the playoffs, it will be due to Cabrera playing out of his mind for a month. If the Angels make the playoffs, it will be because the rest of the Angels' squad supported Trout's relatively pedestrian numbers (compared to his start, anyway) in the second half. Guys have good/bad months all the time and I believe Cabrera should be commended for his late season performance, not that Trout should be punished for his late season swoon.

[Willihammer]

What do the playoffs even have to do with MVP? Nothing. One is a team accomplishment, the other is an individual award.