Article: KC 2, MIN 1: Every Game is the Same Game

[Dantes929]

 

Agreed.  There's no reason that bunting shouldn't be in the arsenal of someone so fast.  I don't think he's as good as he could be with bunting, but I think you're right.  He needs to do something different.  There's no reason why this can't be one of those things.  He does need to get more swinging hits for it to become extremely effective, but you have to start somewhere and if that is what it takes for him to relax and settle in, I'm all for it.  At this point, I think he's pressing and trying too hard.  He's not in the lineup again today, so maybe taking a step back is a good idea.  He seems pretty lost at the plate right now.

I'm a big believer in resets.    How many times have the Twins been hot going into the break only to get cold after the layoff.   Works the other way also.    Turn the calendar over and just look at his June stats.   If that doesn't look good then just look at what he does after the all star break.    Maybe its get sent down and then see how good he is after being recalled.     I know major league pitching is better than the minors but its not twice as good.    He is absolutely not as good now as he can be.     Maybe its just getting a couple hits by accident that gets him going.  Every at bat I think, this is the one that turns it around.   I will keep thinking that.

[wsnydes]

I'm a big believer in resets. How many times have the Twins been hot going into the break only to get cold after the layoff. Works the other way also. Turn the calendar over and just look at his June stats. If that doesn't look good then just look at what he does after the all star break. Maybe its get sent down and then see how good he is after being recalled. I know major league pitching is better than the minors but its not twice as good. He is absolutely not as good now as he can be. Maybe its just getting a couple hits by accident that gets him going. Every at bat I think, this is the one that turns it around. I will keep thinking that.

I'm not a fan of sending him down, but maybe sitting a couple of days helps. I'd rather he be working with the big league coaches, but beyond that I'm willing to listen to any ideas. This team needs him to get going.

[jokin]

 

Ignoring the somewhat questionable idea that a handful of PAs against any one pitcher is predictive for any hitter, a quick check of BRef shows Buxton with the following line against Duffy:

 

10 PAs, .222/.300/.556. Two hits including a double and triple, plus a walk.

 

I understand getting Buxton a day off here and there, but it shouldn't be against a LH pitcher. That's pretty questionable, IMO.

 

Now... don't you start using your multi-fangled factual arguments on me.

 

I was sarcastically and (over)subtly stating Molitor's rationale for sitting Buck last night (via Dick Bremer) .

[jokin]

 

I’m definitely in the “sell” camp. Too much underperformance and add to that players not playing at all for various reasons. 1)The Indians are too talented to play poorly all year..

 

2)Those 7 games against the Indians in the next 3 weeks will likely put the nail in the 2018 coffin.

 

1) I can make the exact same argument about the Twins.

 

2) Or those 7 games just as easily could revive hopes of salvaging the season. You invariably seem to prefer allusions to the proverbial coffin half-full, I'd rather go with the coffin all-empty, for the moment, at least- lot of baseball left.

[yarnivek1972]

1) I can make the exact same argument about the Twins.

 

2) Or those 7 games just as easily could revive hopes of salvaging the season. You invariably seem to prefer allusions to the proverbial coffin half-full, I'd rather go with the coffin all-empty, for the moment, at least- lot of baseball left.

But the question is are Sano and Buxton really underperforming, or is this who they are?

 

Take away Buxton’s strong finish last year and Buxton has a career OPS+ in the 70s.

 

Miguel Sano since his rookie year (after teams had a chance to get a “book” on him) has an OPS+ in the upper 110s range. That’s not bad, but it certainly isn’t a game changing type hitter.

 

Obviously neither is even doing that now, but to expect those two to be substantial contributors might not be accurate.

[snepp]

 

Fifty fifty was really short hand for the luck part.... But one run games are more about luck then we think, iirc a few articles correctly, bit it is possible I am not.

I was also talking about how "even out" did Not mean the Twins will win more to even things out....

 

Here's a tiny tidbit I found when I got curious (more of a fun with numbers thing really).

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/ten-things-about-one-run-games/

 

 

A lot of people think that the outcome of one-run games is pretty much random. As an example, the 2003 Detroit Tigers, one of the worst teams of all time, actually won over 50% of their one-run games. Here’s a breakdown of the Tigers’ record, by margin of the game:

 

Margin   Win%
   1     .514
   2     .189
   3     .208
   4     .294
   5     .286
   6     .000
   7     .250
   8     .000
  >9     .125

 

Interesting article overall, mostly supporting that if you're good, you win more of them. If you're not, you don't.