Article: On Ryan Pressly's Release Point, Pitch Mix

[Jamie Cameron]

In mid-March, I wrote about Ryan Pressly, noting some details about his vertical release point and breaking ball command limiting his 2017 ceiling. Pressly is off to an incredibly hot start. Through 12 IP, Pressly has a 12.0 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, and a FIP of just 1.26.Looking at Pressly’s vertical release points (which have natural variance over the course of the season) there was some splitting of his release points of his fastball and slider in May of 2017 (in which he put up an ERA of 11.00). In other words, his release points were getting further away from each other, potentially resulting in tipping his fastball or slider to opposing hitters. Thus far in 2018, his vertical release points have been extremely consistent, he’s even brought the release of his fastball and slider closer together.

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Let’s check in on Pressly’s slider. Here’s a snapshot of Pressly’s slider location in 2017.

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Here’s the 2018 version so far.

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So far so good. Not only is Pressly throwing his slider a significant amount more, he’s doing do with infinitely better command. Pressly has consistently located breaking pitches down and away from RHH and down and in to LHH thus far in 2018. The results have been highly effective.

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Meanwhile, elsewhere in baseball, there have been some notable starting pitching performances this season. New names like Ohtani have impressed, and established powerhouses like Scherzer have continued to dominate. Two pitchers who have made notable strides in 2018 are Astros Gerrit Cole and Diamondbacks Patrick Corbin. While these two pitchers didn’t start the season with the same pedigree, both have something in common. They’ve moved away from their fastball in favor of an increased reliance on a dominant breaking pitch.

 

Recent seasons have seen analytically inclined teams moving front line starting pitchers away from ‘establishing the fastball’ to relying on their best breaking pitch. This is hardly a ground-breaking thought. Throw what you throw best, more of the time. For both Cole and Corbin, a shift in pitch-mix has had an incredible impact on their early 2018 performance. Consider the following:

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OK, who cares? Well, this shift in starting pitcher pitch mix has been coupled with pitchers throwing an increased number of pitches outside the strike zone. But what about relievers? What are the implications for relief pitchers who throw more than two pitches dabbling with their pitch mix? Here’s a look at Ryan Pressly’s mix over the last two seasons.

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It’s extremely early in the season, so there’s a chance Pressly’s breaking pitch usage will revert to something resembling last year. Throughout his career, he has oscillated between throwing his breaking pitches in the range of 40%-50%, although never with such control. Pressly has even seen small increases in spin rate of both his slider and curveball in 2018.

 

The adjustment in his pitch mix so far however (combined with much improved command) is similar to those of Cole and Corbin and has had strikingly similar results. It’s also probable that Pressly will come back down to earth in the near future. However, his start is one of the few encouraging signs for a Twins team whose relief pitching as a whole, has been a severe letdown in 2018.

 

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[Tom Froemming]

If that can continue to be a pitch that he buries out of the zone to keep hitters off balance it'll just give hitters one more thing to keep in the back of their mind. But, there are still quite a few of those suckers that are being left over the heart of the plate.

[Jamie Cameron]

I would agree with that. He has not yet been punished for the ones he's hung, which will surely change. Definitely an upwards trend in command of breaking pitches overall.

 

If that can continue to be a pitch that he buries out of the zone to keep hitters off balance it'll just give hitters one more thing to keep in the back of their mind. But, there are still quite a few of those suckers that are being left over the heart of the plate.

 

[kab21]

This is an example of what I consider a single season of RP innings to be a SSS when making decisions. Some people were wondering why Pressly was even on the team last winter but his season looked a classic case of bad luck. He led the Twins in swstr% and near the top in K% (with a very good BB%).

And the bigger reminder is that one month of data for a RP is an even SSS.

 

The good news is that his swstr% is even higher. I am hoping that he is just a very good (3.50 ERA) RP in the bullpen but the upside is higher since he has had fairly good K and BB rates in the past and he does throw the heat.

[wabene]

Is his velocity still down a tick?