Article: 2017 Twins Player Predictions: Jason Castro

[mlhouse]

Just to follow up on some evidence about the relationship between pitch framing and quality of pitching staff.  Consider Fransisco Cervelli.  In 2015 as the catcher for the Pirates he led MLB in pitch framing, creating 1.79 strikes/game and saving 26.7 runs over the course of the season as the Pirates catcher.

 

In 2015, the Pirates had the 2nd best ERA in baseball with a 3.21 team ERA.  However, in 2016, Cervelli only created 0.83 strikes/game and saved 9.9 runs. He was still on the same team, but in 2016 the Pirates pitching staff was the 18th best in MLB with a 4.21 ERA.  

 

I am sure that there is some real skill in pitch framing and that catchers like Ryan Doumat (whom is used almost as a standard for bad catching) will always be bad because of their bad form, when you have a statistical measure that has such variance it is probably not a good thing to base signing decisions on.

 

The other thing that worries me about the Castro signing is how the balls/strikes works teh other way.  For a good part of his career teh Astros were at least a competitive team.  He was a poor hitter with a little pop in his bat.  But, moving the the doormat Twins when the ball/strike calls work AGAINST him at the plate does he have enough skill to overcome that.  When you are a career .699 OPS and an extra strike called is worth  .113 runs, it doesnt take much to impact your hitting into below replacement level.

 

I hope I am wrong and that Castro's other skills behind the plate help the Twins staff get more consistent. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Just to follow up on some evidence about the relationship between pitch framing and quality of pitching staff.  Consider Fransisco Cervelli.  In 2015 as the catcher for the Pirates he led MLB in pitch framing, creating 1.79 strikes/game and saving 26.7 runs over the course of the season as the Pirates catcher.

 

In 2015, the Pirates had the 2nd best ERA in baseball with a 3.21 team ERA.  However, in 2016, Cervelli only created 0.83 strikes/game and saved 9.9 runs. He was still on the same team, but in 2016 the Pirates pitching staff was the 18th best in MLB with a 4.21 ERA.  

 

I am sure that there is some real skill in pitch framing and that catchers like Ryan Doumat (whom is used almost as a standard for bad catching) will always be bad because of their bad form, when you have a statistical measure that has such variance it is probably not a good thing to base signing decisions on.

 

The other thing that worries me about the Castro signing is how the balls/strikes works teh other way.  For a good part of his career teh Astros were at least a competitive team.  He was a poor hitter with a little pop in his bat.  But, moving the the doormat Twins when the ball/strike calls work AGAINST him at the plate does he have enough skill to overcome that.  When you are a career .699 OPS and an extra strike called is worth  .113 runs, it doesnt take much to impact your hitting into below replacement level.

 

I hope I am wrong and that Castro's other skills behind the plate help the Twins staff get more consistent. 

 

You realize there are entire treatises on the interwebs about this, right?

 

You can believe the math, or not, up to you. 

[mlhouse]

 

You realize there are entire treatises on the interwebs about this, right?

 

You can believe the math, or not, up to you. 

 

 

LOL at the math.  Maybe you have to "believe" the math, I don't.  I outlined why I think that the statistic is weak:  it does not control for the quality of pitching staff and the estimate for how many runs a single strike saves.  You can make a counter argument, or not but just because it has 'math' and it is on "interwebs" does not make it "settled science".

[Mr. Brooks]

LOL at the math. Maybe you have to "believe" the math, I don't. I outlined why I think that the statistic is weak: it does not control for the quality of pitching staff and the estimate for how many runs a single strike saves. You can make a counter argument, or not but just because it has 'math' and it is on "interwebs" does not make it "settled science".

I can understand why someone could disagree with projecting how many runs it is worth.

But why would it have to account for quality of pitching?

It is simply measuring something that factually happened- a pitch that factually missed the zone being called a strike, and vice versa.

[mlhouse]

 

I can understand why someone could disagree with projecting how many runs it is worth.
But why would it have to account for quality of pitching?
It is simply measuring something that factually happened- a pitch that factually missed the zone being called a strike, and vice versa.

 

 

Quality pitching is going to put the ball closer to the strike zone more often and they are going to get the benefits of the umpire's calls more often, which is another factor that needs to be controlled across these studies.   I also have seen pitch framing studies were they narrow the run factor by count:  obviously a created strike on a x-2 count has a huge value vs. some other counts and they built data on how a strike projection leads to runs.  I still think the number is inflated, but it is an argument I really don't think is all that important  because even using their data I think pitch framing is not all that important.

 

If you have a catcher that can call a great game, work with your ptichers, control the running game, and is a good pitch framer then that is a positive.  If you throw a rock into your pool we know that it increases the water level even if you cannot measure it.  

 

Regardless, my biggest issue with the Castro signing is that instead of giving Mitch Garver the opportunity to prove himself, they got a poor hitting catcher that may or may not be able to make a contribution with his glove (and what is the net impact of his offense-defense?).  I go with Garver and see if he can hit.  If he can't then we would ahve to find alternatives, and I think you can find guys like Castro anytime you want.

[Doomtints]

 

PREDICTIONS

Jason Castro: 390 at-bats, .228/.302/.372 (.674), 20 doubles, 0 triples, 12 home runs.

 

 

.230 - .245 / .300 - .320 / .390 - .415

15 HR, 25 2B, 2 3B