Daniel Ortiz - 2015

[Shane Wahl]

Daniel Ortiz
DOB: 1-5-90 in Caguas, PR
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 185
Position: OF
Bats: Left
Throws: Left
Acquired: Selected by Twins in 4th round of 2008 draft out of Benjamin Harrison High School (Cayey, PR)

2014 statistics:

 

NBR: 189 PA, .324/.340/.500 (.840), 16 doubles, two triples, four homers, four walks, 34 strikeouts, three steals, one time caught stealing

ROC: 254 PA, .256/.283/.434 (.717), 13 doubles, three triples, eight homers, nine walks, 51 strikeouts

 

Ortiz is a guy that the Twins like enough to keep around in spring training for quite a bit of time, but then they also bring in players like Shane Robinson to help block Ortiz. Clearly the biggest hurdle for Ortiz is his inability to ever take a walk. It's alarming just how low those numbers throughout his career. That said, the strikeout totals aren't too egregious either. Ortiz has shown his ability to play CF, with three games there in 2014, eight in 2013, and 16 in 2012. Being a true 4th OF, maintaining a solid bat, and learning to take a few more walks will help him a great deal as he tries to get a cup of coffee with the Twins. Even if Byron Buxton arrives in 2015 and even if the Twins trade no one in the OF during the season, I think Ortiz gets a September call. 

 

2015 prediction:

 

I think Ortiz is going to be just fine in AAA this year. I predict a .279/.310/.460 (.770) line, with 31 doubles and 11 homers. 

[Shane Wahl]

So far:

 

30 PA, .259/.333/.370, one homer, one steal, three walks (!), and nine strikeouts, while playing both corner OF positions.

 

We will see if the walk rate sticks. It would be nice, because it is the only real hurdle for him to get over before being a serious MLB call up contender, in my view.

[Shane Wahl]

Ortiz is heating up a bit. In the past week he has homered and walked the same number of times as he struck out (2).

 

Overall:

 

53 PA, .250/.321/.396 (.717), one double, two homers, five walks, 13 strikeouts, and one steal. No overt miscues in either corner OF spot. 

[Shane Wahl]

In the last week:

 

18 PA, .294/.278/.588 (.866), one double, two triples, no walks, and three strikeouts.

 

He had 13 walks all of last year and has six already this year. He is improving on his 2014 AAA numbers overall. 

 

With Torii Hunter, Shane Robinson, and Jordan Schafer up with the Twins, Ortiz looks more and more like a trade throw-in to pair with someone like Escobar or Fien come the end of July. A guy like Ortiz just offers some prospect status back to teams looking to ship away a better prospect for a veteran. 

 

Of course, if the Twins decide to cut ties with Aaron Hicks or Oswaldo Arcia via trade, there might be an opening for Ortiz.

[Shane Wahl]

Up to a .799 OPS. He has four doubles, two triples, and five homers now. He also has seven walks to go with 19 strikeouts.

[Shane Wahl]

Ortiz is now really smacking the baseball:

 

174 PA, .277/.328/.503, 11 doubles, two triples, seven homers, 11 walks, and 33 strikeouts. We are now talking about 30-double, 18-homer power, with an improving walk rate and an OK strikeout rate.Wha

 

What to do with him? He is no Oswaldo Arcia, but if the Twins wanted to shop Arcia at some point soonish, Ortiz could fill in and be another OF option. If I were him, I would lobby for some CF starts over Eric Farris in Rochester. His path with the Twins will be 4th OF, and it might be 4th OF anywhere.

[Shane Wahl]

Ortiz is 25 and a half years old and is posting an .825 OPS and a much improved BB/K rate. He is well on his way to topping his 46 extra base hits from last season.

 

Speaking of EBH, his totals in his career by season:

 

2008 (short): 18

2010 (short): 31

2011: 47

2012: 43

2013: 43

2014: 46

2015 (so far) 23

 

Again, what to do here with Ortiz?

[Shane Wahl]

Ortiz is in a bit of a slump, but still a strong .774 OPS. And he has now walked more this year than all of last year, so there's something.

 

 

And he is now getting ample time in CF, and although he committed his first error of the season, this might be a huge trial run for 4th OF status for Ortiz.  The Twins need to see if they have any depth beyond Rosario-Buxton-Kepler so they can consider what to do with Hicks and Arcia.

[Shane Wahl]

The offense has gone terribly south. Last 28 days:

 

.184/.237/.264

 

That said, this has basically come at the same time as his move to CF. He has committed one error in center field.

 

Does anyone have any word on the overall defensive performance in CF in the past month for Ortiz in Rochester? It's frustrating to try to find anything about this and come up short. Inside sources are needed . . .

 

Anyway, overall if the defense in CF is even average, the slump with the bat is a fair exchange right now. Ortiz has a future as a 4th OF somewhere, but very likely not much of one as a corner OF player, except in platoon situations.

[Shane Wahl]

Total AAA numbers (2014 and 2015):

 

629 PA, .249/.289/.427 (.716), 35 doubles, six triples, 19 homers, 33 walks, 122 strikeouts. If he can improve with his contact rate, the slugging is going to be solid overall. He isn't disciplined and probably will never hit lefties. As a part-time player, he could be a decent enough platoon option for somebody in 2016.

[Shane Wahl]

Things are slowly picking up for Ortiz again. He is still going to end up with 35 doubles and 15+ home runs this year.

[Shane Wahl]

.712 OPS and he has stuck in CF for Rochester this year. He is going to have a big decision to make--if he wants to stay in this organization for 2016.

[Shane Wahl]

My prediction: "I think Ortiz is going to be just fine in AAA this year. I predict a .279/.310/.460 (.770) line, with 31 doubles and 11 homers."

 

The reality in 526 PA:

 

.248/.295/.430 (.725), 31 doubles, 17 homers.

 

Clearly, my prediction must have involved many triples because that slugging is out of whack with the doubles and homers!

 

Anyway, it should be noted that Ortiz did this while moving to CF during the season. The drop in offensive output might have something to do with that. He also took some walks this year. In 780 AAA plate appearances, he has posted a .723 OPS. As a major leaguer, he might top out at something like that. I would think that Ortiz only remains in the organization if some real movement at the top occurs (Arcia and Kepler, discarding Robinson). Ortiz is likely to be a decent 4th OF type for somebody. It likely won't be the Twins.

[Shane Wahl]

So 2016 forecast: AAA depth for some organization, and potential 4th OF role for some non-Twins MLB team.

[ashbury]

When they signed Torii, I thought (and maybe posted) that they would get about the same production offensively and defensively if they would just promote Danny. While Torii didn't really exceed expectations on the field, I can still say I was wrong; Ortiz simply didn't step forward in 2015 the way he needed to, and treaded water instead.