Miguel Sano - 2015

[nytwinsfan]

How many baseball players, let alone baseball prospects, have had a feature-length documentary made about their careeers? Well, Miguel Angel Sano has had not one, but (soon) two documentaries made about his career. That crazy fact actually begins to make a lot of sense, once you realize that you'd be hard pressed to finda more talented, charismatic, and larger-than-life personality to make a baseball film about. So if you haven't seen Pelotero yet, what are you even doing here? Go watch it now and then come back. It is a fantastic film for any fan of baseball (or of documentary film for that matter), and certainly a must-see for any Twins fan.

 

2015 Assignment: Chatanooga Lookouts

 

Position: 3rd Base (hopefully for a while)

 

Height/Weight: 6'4" Appox. 250 lbs. (Sano was at 260 lbs. during early spring training, but claims to have lost 10 lbs. on a recent "master cleanse" diet).

 

Handness: (B/T): R/R

 

Age: 21 Years old (May 11th, 1993)

 

Nickname: Bocaton ("big mouth")

 

Twitter: @SanoMiguel

 

Scouting Grades:

Mlb.com (future grade): Hit:55 | Power: 80 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 40 | Overall: 65

Fangraphs: Hit:50 | Game Power: 70 | Raw Power: 70 | Run: 40 | Arm: 60 | Field: 45+ | Overall: 60

BA:             Hit: 50 | Power: 70 | Speed: 40 | Defense: 45 | Arm: 70

 

2015 MLB Prospect Rankings:

MLB.com: 12

Fangraphs: 15

Baseball Prospectus: 12

John Sickels: 22

Keith Law:15

 

2015 Twins Prospects Rankings:

Twins Daily: 2

Aaron Gleeman: 2

MLB.com: 2

Fangraphs: 2

John Sickels: 2 (hmm, noticing a pattern here)

 

Previous Years' Stats:

 

Season Team G PA HR R BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+
2010 Twins (R] 20 80 3 11   17.5 % 21.3 % .203 .422 .344 .463 .547 .485 191
2010 Twins (R] 41 161 4 23 6.2 % 26.7 % .182 .382 .291 .338 .473 .393 136
2011 Twins (R] 66 293 20 58 7.8 % 26.3 % .345 .339 .292 .352 .637 .419 153
2012 Twins (A) 129 553 28 75 14.5 % 26.0 % .263 .307 .258 .373 .521 .396 146
2013 Twins (A+) 56 243 16 51 11.9 % 25.1 % .325 .397 .330 .424 .655 .477 203
2013 Twins (AA) 67 276 19 35 13.0 % 29.3 % .335 .265 .236 .344 .571 .397 145

 

2015 Season Outlook:

This year, unfortunately, any discussion of Sano has to start with his recovery from Tommy John surgery in March 2014, which cost him an entire year of development. While Tommy John surgery is not as likely to derail the career of a position player as it is a pitcher, it is still a significant setback for Sano, who will have to rely heavily on his powerful arm to stay at third base. While scouting reports and video suggest that Sano, who is surprisingly agile for his size, is quite good at charging choppers and bunts, his lateral quickness is not as highly rated. His strong arm may help him play further back to give him extra time for lateral movement, but obviously any reduction in strength to his arm from the surgery would undermine the capacity. Luckily reports from spring training and Chattanooga suggest his arm appears as strong as ever, which is good news for Sano’s ability to stay at third base, where his bat is much more valuable to the Twins. Unfortunately, even before the TJ surgery, some already thought Sano would not stay at third base for long.

 

 

As for his bat, Sano will likely have some rustiness for at least a couple of weeks, if not months. Sano is of course known for his prodigious power, an average to above-average hit tool (with potential for more according to some), and an excellent eye at the plate, albeit with high strikeout rates. So even if he does not stick at third base, which would be quite unfortunate, his bat will play anywhere, including right field or first base. Nevertheless, because he would provide more value at third base, allowing the Twins to play Mauer, Vargas, and Pinto (and in the future, possibly Arcia, A. Minier, L. Diaz, or a free agent) at DH and/or 1B, the Twins will undoubtedly give Sano every possible chance to stick at third. Along those lines, the Twins seem intent on making sure Sano stays in reasonably good shape, which is essential for a 250 pound person to play decent defense at third base.

 

Future Outlook:

 

If you want to dream really big, read this description of Sano’s swing/approach from December 2012, in which Kiley McDaniel (now led Fangraphs prospect analyst) compares Sano’s swing to some pretty big names:

 

His power is an easy 80, stemming from obscene raw strength, very good bat speed and the torque, loft and high finish you expect from big boppers. The thing he does that sets him apart from other sluggers is he keeps his hands pretty low throughout his setup and Sano also doesn’t have a pronounced load. Most hitters have to do both things to create power and give away some contact ability, but Sano doesn’t need to and that’s why he has a chance to be the rare high-average cleanup hitter.

 

The problem is that Sano gets pull conscious and eager; often out on his front foot. He’s learned to lay off the breaking ball in the dirt and pitches well out of the zone but he needs to ratchet down his aggression and let the game come to him more. His balanced, quiet yet powerful swing looks a lot like the swings of players Sano could one day be: Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols.

 

 

Obviously, comps to Cabrera and Pujols in their primes, with both plus plus power and plus plus hitting, are the extreme upside. While Sano certainly has enough raw power for that, scouts are mixed on whether his hitting will ever be a truly plus tool, or merely average or even slightly below average. But even if Sano's hitting never progresses beyond averages of .250 to 270, his phenomenal power and ability to take a walk, along with the potential for slightly below-average defense at third base should make him an extremely valuable commodity for years to come and a cornerstone of the next Twins' wave.

 

ETA in the Majors: There has been a lot of debate about when Sano will and should arrive at Target Field, and obviously a lot of that depends on how rusty he is after a year without playing, and on how Trevor Plouffe plays this spring and summer, but my guess is sometime late this summer in July or August, unless he goes on a tear early and forces the issue.

 

http://www.twinsdigest.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/miguel-sano.jpg

[nytwinsfan]

Miguel Sano's stats after 10 games:

 

G    PA    AB    R    H    2B    3B    HR    RBI 

10    42    33      8      6      0      0      2      6

 

BB   HBP    SO    SB    CS    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS 
 8       1       12     1       0      .182      .357      .364      .721

 

Some other key advanced stats:

K%    BB%   BABIP   ISO
28.6    19%    .211    .182

 

A couple of thoughts: First, 10 games is a small sample size, so obviously everyone should look at these stats with a huge grain of salt, but so far Sano is holding his own at the plate, despite understandable rust. His BB% looks great and is higher than his normal 11-14% range. His K% is right about the same as it has been in previous years (mid to high 20s).  It is his low BABIP and his ISO that are dragging him down.  Whether this is rust, and a resulting failure to make consistent good contact or just bad luck is unclear.  Finally, it may also be worth noting that Sano has only had a single PA against a lefty (he walked), and his splits in the past show he has an advantage against lefties (2013 OPS v. LH = 1.183 ; 2013 OPS v. RH = .808) So facing more lefties as the season goes on should also help his overall stats improve.

 

Whether rust or bad luck, or both, I expect his OPS to improve by at least .100 by the time he reaches 20 games. Let's see if my prediction pans out.

 

As for his work in the field, so far Sano has two errors in 16 chances, which is not great, but doesn't tell us much in light of the small sample size.  I hope that anyone who has had a chance to see him in Chatanooga at 3B will chime in and give us their impressions. Sano's ability to stay at 3B is obviously critical to his short and medium term value, and so any info on this would be very helpful.

[nytwinsfan]

Regarding Sano's fielding, a tale of two plays:

 

 

[Monkeypaws]

Both Sano and Buxton just need to stay healthy and play - it'll come back.

[nytwinsfan]

Sano's two-run home run from last night:

 

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=87862983&sid=milb

[HitInAPinch]

 

Sano's two-run home run from last night:

 

http://www.milb.com/multimedia/vpp.jsp?content_id=87862983&sid=milb

Thanks for posting the video!  Sano has a lot of bat movement before the pitch and kinda jerks it up when the pitcher begins to throw.  Gotta smooth that out quick!

[nytwinsfan]

Well folks, I'm sorry to say that things have not improved since I posted my last Sano update. In addition to making his 6th error last night, Sano is batting .163/.299/.388 (.687). The good news continues to be that Sano's BB rate of 15.5% is elite, and his K rate of 28.9% is only slightly above his prior minor league rates. The main culprit remains his extremely low BABIP of .167.  Whatever changes Dougie tried to make to Sano's swing when he kept him out of the lineup for two straight games a week or two ago, they clearly still have not taken effect. The good news is that there is much less of a rush for Sano to arrive at the major league club, given the fantastic start of the year that Plouffe has had. That being said, it would be great if Sano had a strong May so that he could at least be ready for a call-up later this summer or fall, even if it is to share 3B with Plouffe and DH the rest.

[nytwinsfan]

Sano had a good game at the plate tonight, going 3 for 5 (all singles), albeit with his seventh error of the year. This brings his numbers on the year to .188/.314/.400 (.714). Hopefully he can use this to build some confidence.

[Dantes929]

As we have seen from Plouffe and Crede back in the day and probably countless others third base is the spot where slow starts don't necessarily mean everything in a players defensive career.    After a year of rust I am not the least concerned with either his fielding or batting.

[zchrz]

The struggles don't worry me, he is shaking rust off and I doubt he is seeing very many pitches to hit. While Buxton is poised to force the issue I think Sano is an expanded rosters call up at the earliest this year and could start next year in AAA.

 

Kudos on the use of bold in the stats part, made that infinitely more readable!

[nytwinsfan]

Sano with a big night last night, including a HR, a double, and a walk. And no errors! Sano is now hitting .198/.327/.440 (.767), including .265/.381/.588 (.969) with 3 HRs, 7 BB and 9 Ks in his last 10 games!  He's definitely on an upward trajectory, which is something to get excited about.

[Seth Stohs]

From the Twins Daily Twitter account this morning, before going 2-4 with four RBI and a double today:

 

 

 

Twins Daily @twinsdaily  ·  14h 14 hours ago
In Miguel Sano's last 9 games, he is hitting .290/.395/.645 (1.040) with 2 doubles and 3 HR. 6 BB, 8 K in 38 PA. #TideTurned

 

[nytwinsfan]

Sano with a huge night tonight, going 3 for 5 with two Home Runs, his 7th and 8th of the year. He is now hitting .231/.336/.496 (.831).

 

There's also this:  https://vine.co/v/eKU0Bna1ilJ

[Pius Jefferson]

Sano is Hot

 

Buxton is Not

[nytwinsfan]

Sano hit is 9th HR tonight and is now hitting .248/.348/.503 (.851) on the year. In May he is hitting .311/.381/.589 (.970). So far, albeit with especially small sample size for LHP, he is also showing some serious splits with an OPS of .782 against righties and an OPS of 1.263 against lefties.

 

All in all, plenty to be excited about in Sano's bat, which looks like it has more or less shaken off all or most of the rust.

[nytwinsfan]

According to this tweet below from the Lookouts' account, Sano is out of the lineup again tonight for the second night in a row.  Anyone heard anything about whether this is (1) to have him work on things (which happened once earlier in the year), (2) disciplinary, or (3) injury-related?

 

Hopefully it is just number (1).

 

[jokin]

 

According to this tweet below from the Lookouts' account, Sano is out of the lineup again tonight for the second night in a row.  Anyone heard anything about whether this is (1) to have him work on things (which happened once earlier in the year), (2) disciplinary, or (3) injury-related?

 

Hopefully it is just number (1).

 

 

I don't like to see Sano out 2 games in a row for :

 

4) all of the above

[Twins33]

Turns out it was #3: a jammed index finger.

 

https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/604437239515389953

[drjim]

Video of his bomb last night:

 

https://www.facebook.com/BaseballAmericaMag/videos/vb.247155898718/10153000894408719/?type=2&theater

[nytwinsfan]

As drjim's video link demonstrates, Sano hit another bomb last night, number 10 on the year. He is looking great. Overall, his numbers are .250/.354/.506 (.860) with a 13.3% BB rate and a 24.6% K rate. That K rate is a bit high, but if you look at his 2011, 2012, and 2013 seasons, it is actually a lower K rate than any of them (26.3%, 26.0%, and 27.4%, respectively). So that is really good to see. And of course his BB rate is higher than it has been in previous seasons, with the exception of 2012. The only concerns remaining are that Sano's BABIP and ISO are a little low compared to previous years, but that may be just the rust in April, which has since mostly worn off.  Since May 1, Sano is batting .307/.387/.584 (.971).

 

Also, pretty small sample size, but Sano is absolutely obliterating left-handed pitching, with a .333/.448/.917 (1.365). Just a thought, my understanding is that Kennys Vargas, although a switch hitter, generally has better splits against righties. Thus, I like to imagine a September/playoffs situation where Vargas or Arcia platoon with Sano at DH. Man that would be fun.

[Guest]

I have seen Sano play several times, and I am always impressed at how well he moves for someone his size.  At Saturday's game, he had a hot and high one-hopper that required him to quickly retreat and leap.  He made the difficult play look effortless, both the fielding play and the rifle to first.

[nytwinsfan]

With a single and double last night (2 for 4), Sano is now hitting .254/.353/.486 (.839) on the year with a 13.1% BB rate and a 24.4% K rate (his best K rate ever, except for 80 PAs in rookie ball in 2010). Last night was also Sano's first error in the past 8 games, which is the longest stretch he's gone without an error all year.

 

Since May 1st, Sano is hitting .303/.380/.541 (.921).

 

Since June 1st, Sano is hitting .304/.407/.478 (.886), and that despite a nagging hand injury that caused him to miss a few games.

 

In short, Sano is hitting great. The one arguably negative thing on offense is that his power is slightly down, but honestly, power is the one offensive thing no one should be worried about from Sano in the long run.

[nytwinsfan]

https://twitter.com/wicks1221/status/609827222208290817

[nytwinsfan]

After going 2 for 4 with a double last night, Sano is now hitting .252/.352/.491 (.842) on the year.

 

In his last 10 games he is hitting .243/.326/.486 (.812) with two errors.

[nytwinsfan]

After hitting his 14th HR of the year last night, Sano is now .248/.348/.500 (.848) on the year. 

 

Perhaps the best news is that Sano only has 1 error in his last 10 games and only 2 in June. June isn't over yet, but it seems to be a bit of an improvement on May when he had 8 errors and April, when he had 4 in two thirds of a month.

[nytwinsfan]

After going 3 for 5 with a double and home run tonight, Sano is now batting .273//370/.546 (.916) on the year.  Since June 1st he is batting .329//.422/.671 (1.093). Also, still only 3 errors in June.

[nytwinsfan]

 

"Final" slash line for Sano's AA season:   .274/.374/.544 (.918).