Put on Your GM Shoes

[ExpectMorePayLess]

With the pitching getting better and providing many more close contest, which scenario would bring more runs and wins?

 

OPTION A or B

Fantasy long term (2016 thru 2023) line ups

 

[A.]    3 Basher Lineup - Small ball / Contact Lineup

 

1) Buxton  CF

2) Rosario  LF or Hicks LF

3) Santana SS

4) Sano 3B - (25 - 30 HR)

5) Vargas DH - (25 - 30 HR)

6) Arcia RF - (25 - 30 HR)

7) Mauer 1B

8) Suzuki C

9) Polanco 2B

 

or

 

[b.]    6 to 7  Basher Lineup - More strikeouts / Game Changer Lineup

 

1) Buxton  CF

2) Dozier 2B (20 - 25 HR)

3) Sano 3B (25 - 30 HR)

4) Arcia LF (25 - 30 HR)

5) Vargas DH (25 - 30 HR)

6) Pinto C (20 - 25 HR)

7) Mauer 1B or Kepler (20 - 25 HR)

8) Walker RF (25 - 30 HR) or Kepler (20 - 25 HR)

9) Santana SS

[jimmer]

With the pitching getting better and providing many more close contest, which scenario would bring more runs and wins?

 

OPTION A or B

Fantasy long term (2016 thru 2023) line ups

 

[A.]    3 Basher Lineup - Small ball / Contact Lineup

 

1) Buxton  CF

2) Rosario  LF or Hicks LF

3) Santana SS

4) Sano 3B - (25 - 30 HR)

5) Vargas DH - (25 - 30 HR)

6) Arcia RF - (25 - 30 HR)

7) Mauer 1B

8) Suzuki C

9) Polanco 2B

 

or

 

[b.]    6 to 7  Basher Lineup - More strikeouts / Game Changer Lineup

 

1) Buxton  CF

2) Dozier 2B (20 - 25 HR)

3) Sano 3B (25 - 30 HR)

4) Arcia LF (25 - 30 HR)

5) Vargas DH (25 - 30 HR)

6) Pinto C (20 - 25 HR)

7) Mauer 1B or Kepler (20 - 25 HR)

8) Walker RF (25 - 30 HR) or Kepler (20 - 25 HR)

9) Santana SS

With the understanding that I don't necessarily agree with the idea that 'the pitching getting better and providing many more close contest' is happening, for sure, any time soon along with the understanding that the kind of OBP and normal run creating ability Mauer has shouldn't be anywhere near the bottom three of the lineup while still with the team, I'd go with B.  It has Dozier and it doesn't have Rosario or Suzuki.  

 

I'm not convinced either lineup is optimal either in personnel or construction 1-9.  I think people who aren't even on our radar will likely be in the mix all the way out to 2023. That's nine seasons away.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

I just went with the assumption that the top 15  to 20 prospects had a chance to help us down the road.  Some quality pitchers on that list.  Mauer probably should be higher.  I just tried to scatter the few contact guys and put the speed at the top.  I really don't care about who bats where that much on [ B ].  If done right, we should be like the Rays when they produced prospect after prospect for years.  It's in the works.

[jimmer]

I just went with the assumption that the top 15  to 20 prospects had a chance to help us down the road.  Some quality pitchers on that list.  Mauer probably should be higher.  I just tried to scatter the few contact guys and put the speed at the top.  I really don't care about who bats where that much on [ B ].  If done right, we should be like the Rays when they produced prospect after prospect for years.  It's in the works.

The task you gave yourself is no small feat. I will try and come up with an alternative in the next day or so for others to mercilessly critique. Too busy tonight to try it :-)

 

I'll likely do it in phases, like a rough 2016-2018 team, and then a rough 2019-2023.

[amjgt]

Where's Gordon?

[Dantes929]

Its mostly a matter of degrees.  I like speed and OBP more than most but OBP isn't always a factor of small ball.    In our last good year of 2010 for example our #1 and 2 hitters Span and Hudson were actually less than the team average in OBP because Thome, Mauer and Morneau had fantastic OBP stats,  In fact I was never one to bash Gardy much but one of the things I didn't like about his approach was just that.  Putting guys in the 1st two spots that weren't big on base guys.   When Span or Hudson were hurt he would put Tolbert or Punto in there.   Mauer should have been batting 2nd.   He should always be batting 2nd.    So in your example above I like the B lineup if you just flip Dozier and Mauer because Pinto figures to be a better hitter than Suzuzki and Walker or Kepler are power guys that maybe figure to get on base a lot as well as being fast.     What are the assumptions in terms of OBP for Polanco vs Dozier.   I've also never been a real huge fan of having 6 OBP guys in a row and then 3 power guys in a row.    Maybe put a power guy at 3rd, 4th and 7th.   

[bird]

Where's this year's #6 overall pick?

 

Never mind. The Twins don't promote that fast.

[ExpectMorePayLess]

Where's Gordon?

 

 

Santana will be the SS of the future.   As fast as Gordon and just as good defensively.   Gordon will be traded for some other strong prospect pieces to keep farm system plentiful.  

[jimmer]

Santana will be the SS of the future.   As fast as Gordon and just as good defensively.   Gordon will be traded for some other strong prospect pieces to keep farm system plentiful.  

we're going to trade a well thought of (by some) prospect?  Is Ryan still GM in your scenario? :-)

[Dantes929]

we're going to trade a well thought of (by some) prospect?  Is Ryan still GM in your scenario? :-)

Doesn't help that he is still regretting the Ramos for Capps trade.

[jimmer]

Doesn't help that he is still regretting the Ramos for Capps trade.

that wasn't Ryan's trade, and I think people bemoan the Ramos trade a little bit more than they should. Yeah, he was worth more than Capps, who we didn't even need, but Ramos isn't all that.

[lightfoot789]

we're going to trade a well thought of (by some) prospect?  Is Ryan still GM in your scenario? :-)

 

Will Myers and others for James Shields.  Helped put Royals in World Series and Myers was higher ranked prospect than Gordon.

 

The New Twins Way

[jimmer]

Will Myers and others for James Shields.  Helped put Royals in World Series and Myers was higher ranked prospect than Gordon.

 

The New Twins Way

I loved that trade for the Royals when they made it AND nothing has changed my mind about it.  Having said that, I seriously doubt Ryan would have made it or will will trade Gordon if he's thought of as a top prospect.

[brvama]

I think you're overly optimistic about the basher lineup. 7 guys with 25HRs would be great but unlikely. Even so, HRs without men on base doesn't score many runs. I think a lineup with 3-4 mashers with the rest filled out with OBP and speed would be ideal. So I'd construct one similar to option 1.

[Dantes929]

Will Myers and others for James Shields.  Helped put Royals in World Series and Myers was higher ranked prospect than Gordon.

 

The New Twins Way

Royals squeaked into the playoffs and were one wild pitch from being eliminated in the first game.    Shields could just as easily have needed surgery after one week and Myers turn into Mike Trout.  

[Dantes929]

that wasn't Ryan's trade, and I think people bemoan the Ramos trade a little bit more than they should. Yeah, he was worth more than Capps, who we didn't even need, but Ramos isn't all that.

lol,  I knew it when I typed it but it is still a prospect for a vet and I am guessing Ryan wishes it hadn't happened.   Ramos by the way has a better CAREER OPS than Suzuki had last year in his career year.   Plus Ramos is still playing and Capps is done just like the Rays still have Myers and Shields is long gone from the Royals.    That trade balance is still to be determined.     I would still like to have Ramos.

[jimmer]

lol,  I knew it when I typed it but it is still a prospect for a vet and I am guessing Ryan wishes it hadn't happened.   Ramos by the way has a better CAREER OPS than Suzuki had last year in his career year.   Plus Ramos is still playing and Capps is done just like the Rays still have Myers and Shields is long gone from the Royals.    That trade balance is still to be determined.     I would still like to have Ramos.

No, the Rays don't have Myers and he's not exactly tearing things up. And there were more players involved including, arguably, the best reliever last year in Davis.

 

Oh, I'd definitely still prefer to have Ramos too, since I didn't like the Capps trade either. I also didn't like it when we got Suzuki nor am I happy we've kept him. I think he's a huge negative for our team, myself.

 

I'm just saying Ramos hasn't turned into a stud or anything. Some act as if he was a guaranteed superstar or has turned into one.

[Dantes929]

When you are right you are right.   Of course now to determine who did well we have to see the new crop of guys for the Rays but that is not my point anyway.   I would declare the Royals the winners in the swap but it could just as easily have been a bust for the Royals and a perennial all star for the Rays just like it could have tuned out that Capps wins a WS for us..  In the Twins case I am fine with banking on the prospects and do wish we still had Ramos.

[Penthang]

I loved that trade for the Royals when they made it AND nothing has changed my mind about it. Having said that, I seriously doubt Ryan would have made it or will will trade Gordon if he's thought of as a top prospect.

Honestly, I think the first prospect the Twins will trade will be either Sano or Vargas. It seems like they are good with Plouff at third, and if he can repeat or improve on last season I'm ok with that. With the outfielders that are in the pipeline that leaves DH as the landing spot for Sano unless they trade Arcia.

[lightfoot789]

Royals squeaked into the playoffs and were one wild pitch from being eliminated in the first game.    Shields could just as easily have needed surgery after one week and Myers turn into Mike Trout.  

 

Would you be posting this if it were the Twins squeaking in and they won?    If "Ifs and Buts" were candy and nuts.........

 

I'm about results and wins.  Royals did that.  Enough to get to the world series.  Great Year.

[TheLeviathan]

Would you be preaching if it were the Twins squeaking in and they won.    If "If and Buts" were candy and nuts.........

 

I'm about results amd wins.  Royals did that.  Enough to get to the world series.  Great Year.

 

There is a passionate bunch of baseball fans out there that want to minimize any successes Dayton Moore has so years of memes still have play.

 

As for this thread, I think with what the Twins have coming up we may just have to embrace the masher mentality.  Interestingly, we're basically becoming the mid 2000s White Sox model we used to mock.

[twinsfanstreif]

I'd probably go with option B but most likely would do some kind of hybrid of these line ups. I don't think Santana is fit to bat in the 3 hole on option A but Walker is most likely a bench bat/defensive sub on option B

[Dantes929]

Would you be preaching if it were the Twins squeaking in and they won.    If "If and Buts" were candy and nuts.........

 

I'm about results amd wins.  Royals did that.  Enough to get to the world series.  Great Year.

It was a great year and I was pulling for them and happy for them but absolutely I would acknowledge that the Twins were lucky if it were them.   Just like I believe the Twins may have been one break like that from winning a couple playoff games that might have spurred on a similar run.    Please don't say you make your own breaks.    Yes, Hrbek had to pull Gant off 1st base but the ump still had to call  him out.    Luck is part of the game.   I am just saying for every Shields for prospects that help a team to WS there is a Viola for prospects where the prospects develop to go to the WS.   Saying it was a great move to get Shields is obvious  because they did get to the WS but it is also hindsight.  You are about wins and results.   I'm about good moves at the time.    If they don't work then yes, I can live with that.   I did not think Ramos for Capps was a good move.   I do believe Span for Meyer and Revere for Worley and May were good moves.   So far it has not paid dividends.  Worley did not pan out and even if May and Meyer never pitch another game and Revere wins 5 batting titles you will not hear a peep out of me.

[jimmer]

Honestly, I think the first prospect the Twins will trade will be either Sano or Vargas. 

I'd like to think it'd be Rosario.  

[jimmer]

It was a great year and I was pulling for them and happy for them but absolutely I would acknowledge that the Twins were lucky if it were them.   Just like I believe the Twins may have been one break like that from winning a couple playoff games that might have spurred on a similar run.    Please don't say you make your own breaks.    Yes, Hrbek had to pull Gant off 1st base but the ump still had to call  him out.    Luck is part of the game.   I am just saying for every Shields for prospects that help a team to WS there is a Viola for prospects where the prospects develop to go to the WS.   Saying it was a great move to get Shields is obvious  because they did get to the WS but it is also hindsight.  You are about wins and results.   I'm about good moves at the time.    If they don't work then yes, I can live with that.   I did not think Ramos for Capps was a good move.   I do believe Span for Meyer and Revere for Worley and May were good moves.   So far it has not paid dividends.  Worley did not pan out and even if May and Meyer never pitch another game and Revere wins 5 batting titles you will not hear a peep out of me.

Not everyone who liked the KC part of the Shields/Myers trade only liked it in hindsight.  

 

I thought it was the right move at the right time. I loved the trade right from the beginning, and I know many that did as well.  I know some people on here liked the trade at least as early as his first year in KC, because way before I posted here, I'd look in every once in awhile and there were quite a few people who argued for the trade during Shields first year in KC. 

 

I felt Moore got way too skewered for it and I was glad for him and the organization that they were challenging for playoffs in 2013 and made it last year.

[Dantes929]

Not everyone who liked the KC part of the Shields/Myers trade only liked it in hindsight.  

 

I thought it was the right move at the right time. I loved the trade right from the beginning, and I know many that did as well.  I know some people on here liked the trade at least as early as his first year in KC, because way before I posted here, I'd look in every once in awhile and there were quite a few people who argued for the trade during Shields first year in KC. 

 

I felt Moore got way too skewered for it and I was glad for him and the organization that they were challenging for playoffs in 2013 and made it last year.

It was a gamble that paid off.    I have no problem with liking that trade when it happened or even liking it in hindsight though to me that seems myopic(?).    I am more a journey than a destination guy so I try not to evaluate it based on hindsight.   I compare it to Gardy's Manager of the Year award.   He got the award because they won the title despite a fair amount of injuries.   That is based on destination.    The journey was that, Gardy was forced to make some replacements because of injuries that he should have made anyway and probably would not have made but for the injuries.    The replacements did well and the Twins won the Division.  So to me the year he won the MOY was his worst year of managing.    Rays may have made the playoffs because of Myers in 2013.   Royals may have made the playoffs in 2014 because of Shields.  There were other players involved in the trade so who knows who will be the long term winner.    I just like the Twins prospects and don't care to see that Royals trade as justification for the Twins to do the same thing.    Maybe if the Twins have a dry spell of 28 years like the Royals did I will feel different.