Neyer: The prospects we know and the prospects we don't

[JB_Iowa]

Since it doesn't deal with Twins prospects, I don't know if this is the right forum but I found Neyer's column interesting.

 

Prospects don't always turn out the way you anticipate.  OTOH, if your system is deep, it should turn out ok anyway. 

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/top-prospects-lists-scouting-uncertainty-021115

[Rosterman]

You still have to find a place for each top prospect, as well as a time.

 

What is more amazing is when you look,perhaps, at the names of OTHER prospects that do make the big leagues for the team in that same span and stay on as role players, back of the rotation pitchers, or who do bring them warm bodies.

 

As we sit here in Minnesota, wondering who the top prospect catcher will be in a year or two. Will Nick Gordon take the place of Danny Santana. Will Sano become the big third baseman and push Plouffe in a trade for what? Where does Polanco fit in. Is there hope for a Levi Michael? Will Burton hold down centerfield in two years. Will Eddie Rosario make it even before then. Is Adam Walker the real thing. Do we keep Arcia? What about Hicks.

 

As someone said, we have Meyer, Stewart and Berrios knockin' on the door. But we also have May in the mix. There are a couple of back-of-the-rotation guys in the mix, too.

 

Is there a closer to replace Perkins? How fast will Jake Reed jump. Is Burdi a sure thing. We all remember Slama, right? 

 

Every name above could be here in two years, as well as Thorpe and Jorge and Gonsalves, Romeo, Walker, Melotakis, Zach Jones. Remember Max Kepler? Will he get lost in the rush?

 

Somehow the Twins will still find major league at bats for Wilkin Ramirez or Reynoldo Rodriguez, and Eric Fryer, and Doug Bernier.

 

There's 21 or so guys that you would almost call sure bets to find roster spots in the next two years. A whole team of young 'uns. And we want to win, and can we with that much rookie power coming into the pipeline, or will there not be enough lockers in the Inn and what do we do and when do we do it with the ones that we can do something with. Remember, it really only takes (shades of B.J. Hermsen) one bad year in AA or AAA ball for a player to become an also-ran, or not tendered a contract if eligible for minor free agency. 

 

If nothing else, Twins prospect land is a fun place to view, as ALL these guys have the ability and the timing to make it into the big leagues. They have to watch who is behind them, and worry if a spot will open up in front of them. And the dream of big league money is a driving force.

[nytwinsfan]

Great article and perspective. Thanks!

[gunnarthor]

Since it doesn't deal with Twins prospects, I don't know if this is the right forum but I found Neyer's column interesting.

 

Prospects don't always turn out the way you anticipate.  OTOH, if your system is deep, it should turn out ok anyway. 

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/story/top-prospects-lists-scouting-uncertainty-021115

Yeah, I've pointed this out before.  The early 2000 Twins did have a few top 100 prospects on those teams (Hunter, Guzman, Rivas) but a lot of the key guys were never ranked - Radke, Koskie, Santana, AJ, Dougie Baseball, Jones etc.  And the next Sano/Buxton (hopefully) nucleus will probably also have some good complementary players that weren't ever top 100 prospects - maybe Santana, Dozier, Vargas etc. So, yay, depth!

[jimmer]

Yeah, I've pointed this out before.  The early 2000 Twins did have a few top 100 prospects on those teams (Hunter, Guzman, Rivas) but a lot of the key guys were never ranked - Radke, Koskie, Santana, AJ, Dougie Baseball, Jones etc.  And the next Sano/Buxton (hopefully) nucleus will probably also have some good complementary players that weren't ever top 100 prospects - maybe Santana, Dozier, Vargas etc. So, yay, depth!

So is this even more proof that prospect rankings are also just guesses and we can just ignore them like we should ignore those yearly win-loss predictions? I mean just look at the disparity on the rankings of our top 3 pitching choices right now, and Rivas being ranked but not Radke or Santana or AJ and so on? :-)

[gunnarthor]

So is this even more proof that prospect rankings are also just guesses (just look at the disparity on the ranking of our top 3 pitching choices) and we can just ignore them like we should ignore those yearly win-loss predictions? :-)

Sarcasm aside, my guess is that prospect rankings - if you control for injuries - are probably more accurate over the long run than the standing projections.  And obviously some rankings are probably more likely to succeed.  Both Joe Benson and Carlos Correia were top 100 prospects but they weren't remotely the same.  Additionally, I think prospect rankings probably have a better built in check system.  That is, certain types of prospects are more likely to fail than others - guys in the low minors v. guys in the high minors, guys with bad walk to strikeout ratios, pitchers with bad control but high strike outs and guys with injury history.  You start seeing that with ratings now where BA or BP or whomever will rank a prospect but also give a risk grade. 

 

Both projections will have built in biases - standing projections will be dependent on the numbers the system uses while the prospect rankings will be based on the views of different evaluators.  Hence you see differences in how teams are projected to finish and why some prospects are ranked better by different guys.