Twins trade rumors

[PMKI]

The Nationals would probably be interested in Doumit.

[ashbury]

That's a bit unrealistic, too. WAR has lots of problems but it'll work for our purposes....

I took a similar tack on this question in a blog entry a little more than a week ago. My conclusion was similar to the "prepare to be disappointed" theme here.

 

The problem is that what you get in return goes down pretty sharply as the talent you are unloading gets closer to average. Take Pence versus Span, looking at WAR from baseball-reference.com

Age Pence Span

24 3.3 4.2

25 2.1 3.7

26 3.7 1.5

27 2.8 2.3

28 3.2 2.3

 

(The age-28 seasons are both partial and thus somewhat comparable, a little to Span's detriment.) Span's career started out stronger but the recent track record favors Pence, and there would also be the lingering concern over the concussion.

 

I do think you can expect one can't-miss prospect plus maybe another middling prospect in return for Span, but not a haul like Pence fetched. Based on WAR I saw Span as a trading asset as somewhat matched (ironically) to a pitcher, Zambrano. Would you like a Span-for-Kazmir type of trade? I probably would, but that's about the limit - you won't restock the starting rotation with Span as the bait, and he's about the best/only trading asset we've got.

[gunnarthor]

I do think you can expect one can't-miss prospect plus maybe another middling prospect in return for Span, but not a haul like Pence fetched. Based on WAR I saw Span as a trading asset as somewhat matched (ironically) to a pitcher, Zambrano. Would you like a Span-for-Kazmir type of trade? I probably would, but that's about the limit - you won't restock the starting rotation with Span as the bait, and he's about the best/only trading asset we've got.

You make some good points but I think their are two issues that will add to Span's attractiveness. First, unlike Pence, he is cost controlled and therefore more teams can afford him than Pence. Second, with the additional wild card, more teams will (hopefully) be buyers at the deadline. That said, I'm not sure the Twins move Span at all. I think it's more likely that the Twins don't make a major move and instead try and make more Bullock for Diamond trades and wait a year before moving anyone of significance.

[PMKI]

So the Braves are scouting Liriano. I say that we don't settle for anything less than Julio Teheran! haha

[CwK]

Or Vizcaino or Gilmartin

Or both...

STRONG ARM THEM