Moneyball II: Oakland Strikes Back

[The Wise One]

I always said that the true test of the Rays would be how they drafted once they weren't getting perennial top five picks.

 

Thus far, it hasn't gone well for them.

 

Lots of teams build a winning franchise when they get to take the best players out of every draft. The true test is when they continue to win in years 6, 7, 8, etc. Those are the years when they have to rely on nailing it with mid-20s picks every draft to continue succeeding in MLB.

 

Since 2008 most of their high picks have been high school players that are still making their way up the system.

They really have not had a later round draft rise up since Moore and Jennings. They have had the same scouting director for a long time. It is a bit of luck to get a late rounder to the majors, but that is what a team needs.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This is one thing, all homerism aside, that I admire about the Braves and Cardinals. Both have been in the latter half of the first round for the better part of two decades, yet they continue to churn out homegrown players to continue that success.

 

In my post, I started typing a paragraph about the Braves and Cardinals but deleted it because I didn't feel like typing an essay.

[biggentleben]

Since 2008 most of their high picks have been high school players that are still making their way up the system.

They really have not had a later round draft rise up since Moore and Jennings. They have had the same scouting director for a long time. It is a bit of luck to get a late rounder to the majors, but that is what a team needs.

 

Their high picks are also not exactly doing swimmingly, though.

 

They have had 19 first round picks since 2008 (including 7 supplementals in 2011 alone!). 7 of those 19 were college players. With Tim Beckham making the majors, he is now their first pick in those drafts to make the majors. They had zero of those picks in the Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus top 100s this year, and Taylor Guerreri was their only representative on the MLB.com list at #96. High school or not, they're not developing with success.

[benji21]

I believe they came really close to spending to their cap. Anyone have hard numbers on this?

 

A lot of the frustration comes from people jumping the gun on international signings and fretting that the Twins don't "blow their wad" in the first few weeks. But, to my knowledge, by the end of the signing period they've always been close to their cap, if not right at it.

 

The international signing period is long and it takes some time for a lot of teams to reach their cap, particularly if they don't spend huge money on 1-2 guys right away, as the Twins haven't done in recent years.

 

Brock - I agree in part. With there being a number of worthwhile prospects out there to get, it does make sense, in a sense, to spread your chips around and hope to hit on one or more. My point is, the time that they did "blow their wad" is the time that they landed one of the best prospects in all of the minors. So why not use that approach again? When I advise my young son in his pokemon card trades, I tell him one great card is better to have then many mediocre ones. I believe that fits here as well

[kab21]

Brock - I agree in part. With there being a number of worthwhile prospects out there to get, it does make sense, in a sense, to spread your chips around and hope to hit on one or more. My point is, the time that they did "blow their wad" is the time that they landed one of the best prospects in all of the minors. So why not use that approach again? When I advise my young son in his pokemon card trades, I tell him one great card is better to have then many mediocre ones. I believe that fits here as well

 

The problem is that there aren't a lot of singularly great 16 yr old prospects like Sano. Additionally even the best international FA's have a poor track record of success. Aside from MCab 15 years ago the top 20 int'l FA's have done very little in the majors and aren't very good prospects.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html

 

A lot of that list is still in the minors but Thorpe and Polanco would easily be considered better prospects than all but Gary Sanchez (Heredia vs thorpe could be argued). Most of that list would rate below Felix Jorge. Those are 3 examples of prospects that the Twins acquired in their spread the chips around quantity over quality approach. They were all acquired for 250K-1M.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The problem is that there aren't a lot of singularly great 16 yr old prospects like Sano. Additionally even the best international FA's have a poor track record of success. Aside from MCab 15 years ago the top 20 int'l FA's have done very little in the majors and aren't very good prospects.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2011/2611342.html

 

A lot of that list is still in the minors but Thorpe and Polanco would easily be considered better prospects than all but Gary Sanchez (Heredia vs thorpe could be argued). Most of that list would rate below Felix Jorge. Those are 3 examples of prospects that the Twins acquired in their spread the chips around quantity over quality approach. They were all acquired for 250K-1M.

 

This. Beat me to it.