Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • entries
    894
  • comments
    3,748
  • views
    1,630,182

What If Twins Never Signed Joe Mauer?


Twins Video

If you've paid any attention to one of the most criticized parts of the Minnesota Twins over the past handful of years, you've been made aware of the large contingent of fans upset over Joe Mauer's $184 million contract. Despite being the fourth-largest deal in MLB history at the time, and the largest ever for a catcher, it seemed to make perfect sense from the get go. Now more than six years later however, there's still plenty wondering (and even wishing), what if it never happened?

 

Let's set the stage. At the time he signed his contract, Joe Mauer was a soon to be 27 year old coming off of a second straight All Star appearance (third overall), and having won his first MVP award. He was a three time batting champion, Mauer owned a career .327/.408/.483 slash line, and he had collected two Gold Gloves to go with his three Silver Sluggers. Maybe the cherry on top of it all, the former first overall pick, was a St. Paul native and accomplishing it all for his hometown team.

 

Then on March 21, 2010 it happened. Prior to his final arbitration season, and headed into free agency, Minnesota locked up Mauer. He was given an eight-year, $184 million deal with a full no trade clause. Effectively, Joe Mauer was made a Twin for life.

 

So what if Minnesota never went down that road? What if Mauer simply played through his final arbitration year, making $12.5 million, and was dealt to a new organization? You have been refreshed on the production and the awards, but what did the external landscape for the Twins look like?

 

Taking a speculative approach for the purpose of this piece, lets assume the Yankees would have had significant interest, as would've the Red Sox given how well Fenway Park would play to Joe's strengths.

 

Heading into 2016, the top 10 prospects in baseball as decided by Baseball America included Jason Heyward (braves), Stephen Strasburg (Nationals), Mike Stanton (now, Giancarlo Marlins), Jesus Montero (Yankees), Briant Matusz (Orioles), Desmond Jennings (Rays), Buster Posey (Giants), Pedro Alvarez (Pirates), Neftali Feliz (Rangers), and Carlos Santana (Indians). There's some big names in that list, and there's some relatively big misses as well.

Let's hone in on the Yankees and Red Sox though. Starting in New York, their top two prospects in 2010 were both catchers: Montero, and a guy named Gary Sanchez. Behind them was Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and further down the line, Eduardo Nunez. The top 10 prospects for Boston at the time included names like Casey Kelly, Jose Iglesias, Anthony Rizzo, Josh Reddick, and Garin Cecchini.

 

At this point, it's pretty easy to check off which of those prospects have amounted to something, and which haven't. Trying to be as fair as possible, the expectation that two top 10 prospects would head to the Twins seems like a good bet. Asking the Yankees for something like Sanchez and Betances, or the Red Sox for Iglesias and Rizzo seems like it could be fair.

 

So, let's assume that there wouldn't be any backlash for the Twins trading Mauer in the first place (a showstopper and a fool's errand, but whatever). From the Yankees side, Sanchez is just debuting so it's far to early to evaluate. Betances is one of the game's best late inning relievers, but he didn't become a dominant star until 2014, at the age of 26. Now 28, he'd be a nice piece to have in Minnesota, but hardly the missing link pushing the club into contention.

 

In terms of the Red Sox, Iglesias has been a defense first shortstop that owns just a 4.9 career fWAR since his 2011 debut. Still only 26, he's got time on his side, but expecting a peak to be much high probably isn't likely. Anthony Rizzo is easily the biggest name from above, and was moved from Boston, to San Diego, and eventually to Chicago. Making his debut with the Padres in 2011, he's since gone on to be an MVP candidate for the Cubbies, and own a career 18.4 fWAR at 27 years old.

 

Whether or not the trajectories and outputs of the aforementioned players would remain the same is far too much to assume. Regardless, a best case scenario looks like a set of players producing roughly 25 fWAR combined since 2010. So what has Joe Mauer been up to since his deal?

 

Having been worth 32 fWAR through the 2010 season, Mauer has now been worth 14.4 fWAR since signing his deal. After an injury shortened 2011 season (playing just 82 games), Mauer rebounded to become an All Star again in 2012 (4.5 fWAR), and 2013 (5.2 fWAR). Concussions forced him out from behind the plate (a premium position) and into his new role at first base. He's been far from the same player, despite having a solid 2016 season.

 

In trying to equate some financial equivalence to Mauer's production, we have to look no further than Fangraphs (again). From 2004-10 Mauer was worth $182 million while being paid $34.025 million. After 2011, Mauer has earned $138 million (by season's end), and has been worth $104.7 million (currently). Added together, Mauer has been paid $172.025 million to date, while being valued at $286.7 million.

 

At the end of the day, Joe Mauer isn't going anywhere for the Twins. His contract isn't an issue, and the fact that he doesn't hit a zillion homers isn't a massive downfall. What is reality though is that Minnesota is likely better off having hung onto their superstar (the backlash had they not likely would've been even worse), and both parties were dealt an unfortunate blow when brain injuries became an issue.

 

Trying to retroactively dictate the past is an interesting premise. This is one though that the Twins appear to have put the right foot forward.

 

For more from Off The Baggy, click here. Follow @tlschwerz

3 Comments


Recommended Comments

Rosterman

Posted

It makes you suddenly realize how foolish it is to make a single player the brand of a team...either when they drafted Joe Mauer in the first place, or gave him the extension. Of course, the thought still remains of Joe Mauer being a lifetime boon to the organization, if he so chooses to remian anywhere in the game of baseball. But it also shows that when a player diminishes in value (this time because of a position change), it can also hurt the team in the long run.

 

 

If we had never signed Joe, we would've had Prior and that baggage of an overpriced draftee who would've hated being signed by Minnesota (assuming he would've signed).

 

We would've kept A.J. and not have Liriano and Nathan and Boof.

 

Wow, suddenly things start to look royally different.

 

We could've traded Mauer, too. I wonder what the backlash would've been like. Of course, we could part ways with him right now if any other club saw $20 million of contributions from him on the field. And I think we could happily absorb the ramifications of such a move. But it ain't happening.

 

In hindsight, we didn't need to move Ramos. We should still have Pinto. Heck, we should've developed Danny Rams!

 

Two questions remain.

 

The game of baseball has changed. ANy money you give to a player is a sunk cost for one season or multiple seasons. At some point, you may jump on your desk and say you were the "master of the game" and did something totally right. On the other end, you suddenly say I am paying a guy $30 million a year for his good years, write-it-off and move on.

 

I think the sport will be seeing more and more BAD longterm really rich contracts, but if they give results for one or two important moments in the team's game, it will continue to happen. The money, sadly, is there.

 

The other question is "What is Joe's longterm situation with the Twins organization?"  Will he retire in two seasons or continue on in the sport, and if not with the Twins, where? Is he worthwhile signing to a lifetime "end your career with us/personal services contract" or do the two parties part ways and maybe in a couple of years Joe joins the likes of Hrbek and such as a roving ambassador and batting consultant. Will Joe continue his career as a hitting instructor (and can he do that). Will he buy a team? 

 

It will be interesting to see what happens to the "Mauer" brand as his career winds down.

 

old nurse

Posted

Mauer to the Brewers for some prospect named Lucroy and their injury prone SS whats his name. Sweeten the pot by throwing in Baker and get some outfield prospect named Cain. The Brewers were trying hard to win now by adding veterans.

Since Morneau was coming up for a contract, Morneau straight up for a young pitcher named Kershaw.  Colda woulda shouldas

 

Edit. Of course in one of these deals adding Brian Duensing would be the deal clincher.

 

how bad could have Anderson screwed up Kershaw?

FargoFanMan

Posted

It still bothers me that Joe gets all this blame. My belief that it's not as much Joe Mauer as it is the inept front office that was running things. You knew what Joe Mauer was and what he was going to be. What did the Twins do to help themselves? Nothing! They sat on their hands year in and year out at the deadline and in the offseason aside from 2 trades. The Shannon Stewart and AJ trades which were before Joe and paving the way for Joe. Too many times we did nothing to give the Twins the playoff push. A total bummer about Morneau and later Mauer but that's the complete illusion of greener pastures in the future when this team was waiting at the gate plenty of times. For what? Fielding a competitive team for a new stadium? Maybe that was it or maybe not. As for Joe. Maybe he should have had another year or two of premium catching time than he has had and same with Justin. That's sports though. You have to capitalize now and not be afraid of the future consequences to a degree. If it gets you a championship this year then what does next year matter? If the Front Office does its job you shouldn't have long spells of losing for more than a year or two. Not 5. Never was and still isn't Joe's fault. Period.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...