Jim Merrit for Leo Cardenas says hello

What player did the Twins get for Dave Hollins?

Yes one for one trades you generally get what you give up. Occasionally you get the player that thrives in a new environment

Jim Merrit for Leo Cardenas says hello

What player did the Twins get for Dave Hollins?

Yes one for one trades you generally get what you give up. Occasionally you get the player that thrives in a new environment

Two player trades that involve a prospect would fall under adding future value. Leo Cardenas for Jim Merrit was an ok trade, but Cardenas probably added only two wins to the team.

It's about the future. The Twins saw no one but the fading Suzuki at the catcher position. They foresaw Buxton displacing Hicks in centerfield.  So they traded someone they had no place for in the future, for someone they desperately needed.

It makes no sense to compare their hitting stats and say they are equivalent. Hicks had not lineup spot so would have very few at bats.  Catcher had no one at all lined up to start next year. 

Also, they clearly hoped Murphy was a young, improving player on the upswing who could grow into a starting role. 

And because they thought Buxton was a future star, they hoped upgrade two positions at once with the trade.  The plan was to go from Suzuki and Hicks -- a fading veteran at catcher with no viable replacement, and a soon to be benched veteran in centerfield -- to two young, rising starters at both positions in Buxton and Murphy.  It may not have worked out as they hoped, at least not yet, but that was the plan. 

That's why the two alternate futures envisioned are not equivalent at all, despite the similarity of the two tradees' stats. You buying that?

You acknowledge that people trade from a position of surplus to trade for a position of need, but then say you don't see how that improves the team if their stats are the same.  The difference is, one has no avenue to getting at bats, because there's a better player blocking him. The other fills a desperately needed hole, where not only is nobody blocking him, there's not even someone as good as him available at all, so it's an upgrade. 

It's about the future. The Twins saw no one but the fading Suzuki at the catcher position. They foresaw Buxton displacing Hicks in centerfield.  So they traded someone they had no place for in the future, for someone they desperately needed.

 

It makes no sense to compare their hitting stats and say they are equivalent. Hicks had not lineup spot so would have very few at bats.  Catcher had no one at all lined up to start next year. 

 

Also, they clearly hoped Murphy was a young, improving player on the upswing who could grow into a starting role. 

 

And because they thought Buxton was a future star, they hoped upgrade two positions at once with the trade.  The plan was to go from Suzuki and Hicks -- a fading veteran at catcher with no viable replacement, and a soon to be benched veteran in centerfield -- to two young, rising starters at both positions in Buxton and Murphy.  It may not have worked out as they hoped, at least not yet, but that was the plan. 

 

That's why the two alternate futures envisioned are not equivalent at all, despite the similarity of the two tradees' stats. You buying that?

 

You acknowledge that people trade from a position of surplus to trade for a position of need, but then say you don't see how that improves the team if their stats are the same.  The difference is, one has no avenue to getting at bats, because there's a better player blocking him. The other fills a desperately needed hole, where not only is nobody blocking him, there's not even someone as good as him available at all, so it's an upgrade. 

It doesn't make a difference if they don't add wins to the team. Hicks had over 400 plate appearances, which is definitely enough to judge a season. Murphy is being blocked anyways, and now just got sent down.

It doesn't make a difference if they don't add wins to the team. Hicks had over 400 plate appearances, which is definitely enough to judge a season. Murphy is being blocked anyways, and now just got sent down.

Agreed. But I'm not arguing that the trade was good or successful.  I'm saying that if it does turn out to be successful, the value of the two players to the Twins will be far from equivalent, regardless of the fact that their batting stats were similar last year.  The intent of the Twins is to replace a future bench player, in Hicks (assuming Buxton matures), with a starting catcher, who hits and fields BETTER than he did last year, and fills a dire need, since catcher is a position for which they have literally no one with major league ability just one year from now.  Assuming it works out, they will go from replacement level or lower production at catcher, to a rising star (that's the goal), without giving up anything at the centerfield position, since that will be filled by Buxton anyway.  That's all I'm saying.  If Murphy fails to ever hit again, sure, the trade was a flop.  If he hits as good as last year, he's an upgrade -- with no downgrade in centerfield. 

Agreed. But I'm not arguing that the trade was good or successful.  I'm saying that if it does turn out to be successful, the value of the two players to the Twins will be far from equivalent, regardless of the fact that their batting stats were similar last year.  The intent of the Twins is to replace a future bench player, in Hicks (assuming Buxton matures), with a starting catcher, who hits and fields BETTER than he did last year, and fills a dire need, since catcher is a position for which they have literally no one with major league ability just one year from now.  Assuming it works out, they will go from replacement level or lower production at catcher, to a rising star (that's the goal), without giving up anything at the centerfield position, since that will be filled by Buxton anyway.  That's all I'm saying.  If Murphy fails to ever hit again, sure, the trade was a flop.  If he hits as good as last year, he's an upgrade -- with no downgrade in centerfield. 

Hicks could end up better than Rosario, so I don't think that Hicks would have been a guaranteed bench player.

It doesn't make a difference if they don't add wins to the team. Hicks had over 400 plate appearances, which is definitely enough to judge a season. Murphy is being blocked anyways, and now just got sent down.

this season, so far, you're right, the trade's a wash. Both sides are getting zero.  But it's too soon to judge. In two years, if the Twins have a starting catcher, and Buxton starring in center field, it will have worked perfectly.  If Buxton never learns to hit and Hicks is starting for the Yankees, and Murphy washes out, it will have been a disaster.   If neither does anything, it will be, as you say, irrelevant.  But it will take a few years to know for sure.