Willy's What If: the Twins never trade Johan Santana
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Entry posted by William Malone in Willy's What If ·
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Hello, fellow humans! My name is William Malone IV. Son of William Malone III. And I come with great news! It is another "What If Wednesday" with your ole pal William Malone IV.
Scenario: what if the Minnesota Twins never trade Johan Santana?
This is a trade that clearly didn't work out for the Twins. It also didn't really work out for the New York Mets. They signed Santana to a six year extension, on top of the one year he initially had left in Minnesota. This locked him up for seven full seasons. Santana threw a pitch in just four of those seasons, and New York never reached the postseason while he was on their payroll.
Trading Santana didn't benefit the Twins that much. Signing him to a long term deal wouldn't have moved many needles as well. So what happens if the Twins just keep him for the 2008 season, then allow Santana to walk in free agency.
Fans always hate the idea of letting a player leave "for nothing." But an extra season of baseball's best pitcher is not nothing. Santana was still brilliant in 2008, leading the National League in ERA and innings pitched. He pitched a complete game shutout on three days rest in the Mets 161st regular season game. This temporarily kept New York in the playoff race, although they would get eliminated the next day. His infamous injuries would start coming into play a year later, as 2008 was the last time Santana made at least 30 starts in a season.
What if his 2008 season was in a Twins uniform? Minnesota was still pretty good that year. They lost an AL Central tiebreaker game to the Chicago White Sox, but you'd have to imagine it wouldn't be necessary if Johan Santana was toeing the rubber 34 times. It's safe to assume that Santana is worth at least one win.
Despite missing the playoffs in 2008 and making the playoffs in 2009, the 2008 squad was probably a bit better. Minnesota scored more runs in 2008. They also allowed less runs in 2008. This is why the 2008 Twins actually wound up winning more baseball games. The AL Central was just weaker in 2009. Even without the game's best pitcher, that was still a really good ball club.
As far as their playoff chances go, Francisco Liriano is a big key in all of this. There are many fans across Twins Territory who claim they had a real shot at winning a World Series in 2006 had Liriano not gone down with an elbow injury late in the year. Now you finally have the Santana-Liriano rotation duo.
Liriano did have a 3.91 ERA in 2008, which doesn't seem that impressive. But that's ballooned by an 11.32 ERA in three April starts upon returning from Tommy John surgery. The Twins optioned him down to Triple-A, and called him up back in early August. He made 11 starts from August 3rd until the end of that season, looking like he did in 2006. Maybe not quite as good, but it was ace level pitching down the stretch. He had a 2.74 ERA in those 11 starts, registering six wins and only one loss. That guy and Santana both healthy in a playoff rotation? Now we're talking!
It's hard to project what would've happened in the playoffs, but the American League playoff field that year lacked high end aces. Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay finished first and second in the AL Cy Young voting, but they were both on clubs that finished far out of postseason contention. Relievers Francisco Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera finished third and fourth. Of the eight pitchers who got votes, only two were starters on playoff teams; Daisuke Matsuzaka and Ervin Santana. The Tampa Bay Rays wound up winning the American League that year with a very good rotation of James Shields, Matt Garza, Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine. Very good pitchers, but nobody like Johan Santana. The way Liriano had pitched over the final two months, maybe nobody like him either.
Winning the American League came down one thing; could you mash? Tampa Bay averaged 5.2 runs per game against the Chicago White Sox, beating them in four games. The ALCS between Boston and Tampa Bay was quite the high scoring affair. The Rays scored 9, 9, 13 and 3 runs in the four games they won. Tight squeeze in that 3-1 game seven, but they mashed their way to three other wins.
And while the American League was short on ace pitching in their postseason field, so was the National League. The Phillies came out of the NL, and this was before they added guys like Lee and Halladay. It's already been mentioned that they finished first and second in the AL Cy Young voting that year. Those guys showed up in the City of Brotherly Love a little bit later on. In 2008, it was Cole Hamels and a lot of Nick Blackburn level guys behind him. But they mashed! Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Jason Worth! Those guys could hit! And it was hitting year.
Could the Twins have mashed to this level, only with Santana backing them up as a safety net? Joe Mauer won his second batting title that year. Justin Morneau was the MVP runner-up, falling shy of Dustin Pedroia. Maybe! Maybe not. What do y'all think. Tell your ole pal William Malone IV in the comments!
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