Why 2025 will be the year Trevor Larnach takes the next step (and yes I know this is the third year in a row we've been saying this)
Twins Video
Well, it sure has been a while hasn't it? 2024 into 25 has been super hectic for me planning a move and the like but spring training starting finally got me the motivation to get writing again. But that's enough about me, you're here to read about Trevor Larnach, not some bozo living in a cheap apartment in Uptown.
So by now we all know Trevor Larnach's story, first round pick with tons of talent but had lingering injury issues holding him back, as is normal for 90% of the top prospects in the Twins system over the years. Now in the majors and turning 28 in two days (Happy early birthday Larchad!) and with elite talent below him in the minors, he's at a career crossroads and I believe this is the year he really puts it all together. So why am I gassing him up to such a huge degree? Well it comes down to three major things you can see in his hitting profile.
Statcast Batting Statistics
|
Season
|
Age
|
Pitches
|
Batted
Balls |
Barrels
|
Barrel %
|
Barrel/PA
|
Exit
Velocity |
Max EV
|
Launch
Angle |
LA Sweet-
Spot % |
XBA
|
XSLG
|
WOBA
|
XWOBA
|
XWOBACON
|
HardHit%
|
K%
|
BB%
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24 | 1211 | 158 | 15 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 90.0 | 116.0 | 13.1 | 34.8 | .212 | .376 | .300 | .306 | .411 | 41.1 | 34.6 | 10.3 |
| 2022 | 25 | 724 | 105 | 12 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 90.1 | 112.4 | 13.1 | 36.2 | .227 | .442 | .309 | .322 | .437 | 43.8 | 31.7 | 10.0 |
| 2023 | 26 | 915 | 113 | 15 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 90.1 | 112.0 | 17.5 | 41.6 | .215 | .431 | .313 | .323 | .443 | 49.6 | 34.0 | 12.7 |
| 2024 | 27 | 1576 | 268 | 27 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 92.0 | 113.2 | 12.4 | 36.2 | .259 | .458 | .336 | .345 | .405 | 45.1 | 22.3 | 10.0 |
| Player | 4426 | 644 | 69 | 10.7 | 6.3 | 90.9 | 116.0 | 13.6 | 36.8 | .233 | .428 | .317 | .326 | .419 | 44.7 | 29.5 | 10.6 | |
| MLB | 82372 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 88.5 | 122.4 | 12.3 | 33.2 | .245 | .405 | .316 | .315 | .368 | 36.5 | 22.2 | 8.4 |
First off, Larnach hits the absolute **** out of the ball. looking at his batted ball data (shown above) you can see his average exit velocity in 2024 was 92 MPH compared to the league average of 88.5, which was good for top 10% of the league(!!!!), this along with an impressive max exit velo of 113.2 shows off the insane power Larnach has in his bat, but if you need an example here's a video of him hitting a no-doubt nuke into the Delta Sky 360 Club, something only 7 Twins hitters have accomplished (including Twins legends like Jake Cave, Tyler Austin and Byung-Ho Park):
Next up, Larnach has massively improved his strikeout and whiff rates. Referring back to the table (yeah I know I'm leaning on Statcast data to a pretty sad degree, but it is by far the best source imo) we can see Larnach brought his K rate down from a pretty sketchy 34% in 2023 to an almost exactly league average 22.3%. It's not elite or anything, but that mixed with his well above average walk rate combines for a player with the tools to be selective with his pitches and punish the ones he gets with the wrath of god.
Batted Ball Profile
|
Season
|
GB %
|
FB %
|
LD %
|
PU %
|
Pull %
|
Straight %
|
Oppo %
|
Weak %
|
Topped %
|
Under %
|
Flare/Burner %
|
Solid %
|
Barrel %
|
Barrel/PA
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 45.6 | 24.7 | 25.9 | 3.8 | 39.9 | 33.5 | 26.6 | 4.4 | 32.9 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 5.0 |
| 2022 | 41.9 | 36.2 | 18.1 | 3.8 | 38.1 | 36.2 | 25.7 | 1.9 | 32.4 | 23.8 | 20.0 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.7 |
| 2023 | 34.5 | 38.1 | 23.0 | 4.4 | 38.9 | 42.5 | 18.6 | 4.4 | 20.4 | 28.3 | 21.2 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 |
| 2024 | 44.0 | 26.9 | 25.4 | 3.7 | 42.5 | 33.6 | 23.9 | 1.9 | 30.2 | 25.0 | 23.9 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 |
| Player | 42.4 | 29.8 | 23.9 | 3.9 | 40.5 | 35.6 | 23.9 | 3.0 | 29.5 | 25.0 | 22.7 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.3 |
| MLB | 44.4 | 23.8 | 24.7 | 7.1 | 37.2 | 37.5 | 25.2 | 3.9 | 32.6 | 24.8 | 24.4 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.8 |
Now let's hop to the batted ball profile. So, to put it simply as my caveman brain loves to, what you want in a player with pop like Larnach does is two things, putting the ball into the air and pulling it, and shockingly Larnach does both well above league average. Looking at his spray chart from last year you can pretty clearly see it, literally all of his Home Runs are pulled at least a little bit
Now, as someone who has some ooga booga brain from time to time (I blame the brain damage from concussions back in High School Football), I have definitely fell into the eye test trap crying about how Larnach always hits the ball 5 million MPH into the ground for outs but this just isn't true. His GB rate is literally league average, I suppose it's bias seeing the ball smoked all the time leading you to think it happens more often than it does.
So with all this in mind we just need to touch the final but also most important thing, that he's gonna finally be a full-time starter on opening day! 2024 was a solid year that bought him a starting role that will finally give him the chance to put destiny in his own hands.
To conclude this rambling mess of stats and word vomit, Larnach has the tools to be a solidly above average corner OF. I'm buying all the stock possible in him and even if you're jaded now I hope this might've fooled you into having some hope for our in-house players again. I leave you with perhaps the single greatest HR of Larnach's career, I honestly think this absolute monster could not be matched by even the likes of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, heck even Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds aren't hitting this kind of peak performance


2 Comments
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now