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Why 2025 will be the year Trevor Larnach takes the next step (and yes I know this is the third year in a row we've been saying this)


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Well, it sure has been a while hasn't it? 2024 into 25 has been super hectic for me planning a move and the like but spring training starting finally got me the motivation to get writing again. But that's enough about me, you're here to read about Trevor Larnach, not some bozo living in a cheap apartment in Uptown.

So by now we all know Trevor Larnach's story, first round pick with tons of talent but had lingering injury issues holding him back, as is normal for 90% of the top prospects in the Twins system over the years. Now in the majors and turning 28 in two days (Happy early birthday Larchad!) and with elite talent below him in the minors, he's at a career crossroads and I believe this is the year he really puts it all together. So why am I gassing him up to such a huge degree? Well it comes down to three major things you can see in his hitting profile.

Statcast Batting Statistics

 
Season
Age
Pitches
Batted
Balls
Barrels
Barrel %
Barrel/PA
Exit
Velocity
Max EV
Launch
Angle
LA Sweet-
Spot %
XBA
XSLG
WOBA
XWOBA
XWOBACON
HardHit%
K%
BB%
2021 24 1211 158 15 9.5 5.0 90.0 116.0 13.1 34.8 .212 .376 .300 .306 .411 41.1 34.6 10.3
2022 25 724 105 12 11.4 6.7 90.1 112.4 13.1 36.2 .227 .442 .309 .322 .437 43.8 31.7 10.0
2023 26 915 113 15 13.3 7.1 90.1 112.0 17.5 41.6 .215 .431 .313 .323 .443 49.6 34.0 12.7
2024 27 1576 268 27 10.1 6.8 92.0 113.2 12.4 36.2 .259 .458 .336 .345 .405 45.1 22.3 10.0
Player   4426 644 69 10.7 6.3 90.9 116.0 13.6 36.8 .233 .428 .317 .326 .419 44.7 29.5 10.6
MLB       82372 7.0 4.8 88.5 122.4 12.3 33.2 .245 .405 .316 .315 .368 36.5 22.2 8.4

 

First off, Larnach hits the absolute **** out of the ball. looking at his batted ball data (shown above) you can see his average exit velocity in 2024 was 92 MPH compared to the league average of 88.5, which was good for top 10% of the league(!!!!), this along with an impressive max exit velo of 113.2 shows off the insane power Larnach has in his bat, but if you need an example here's a video of him hitting a no-doubt nuke into the Delta Sky 360 Club, something only 7 Twins hitters have accomplished (including Twins legends like Jake Cave, Tyler Austin and Byung-Ho Park): 

 

Next up, Larnach has massively improved his strikeout and whiff rates. Referring back to the table (yeah I know I'm leaning on Statcast data to a pretty sad degree, but it is by far the best source imo) we can see Larnach brought his K rate down from a pretty sketchy 34% in 2023 to an almost exactly league average 22.3%. It's not elite or anything, but that mixed with his well above average walk rate combines for a player with the tools to be selective with his pitches and punish the ones he gets with the wrath of god.

Batted Ball Profile

 
Season
GB %
FB %
LD %
PU %
Pull %
Straight %
Oppo %
Weak %
Topped %
Under %
Flare/Burner %
Solid %
Barrel %
Barrel/PA
2021 45.6 24.7 25.9 3.8 39.9 33.5 26.6 4.4 32.9 23.4 23.4 6.3 9.5 5.0
2022 41.9 36.2 18.1 3.8 38.1 36.2 25.7 1.9 32.4 23.8 20.0 10.5 11.4 6.7
2023 34.5 38.1 23.0 4.4 38.9 42.5 18.6 4.4 20.4 28.3 21.2 12.4 13.3 7.1
2024 44.0 26.9 25.4 3.7 42.5 33.6 23.9 1.9 30.2 25.0 23.9 8.6 10.1 6.8
Player 42.4 29.8 23.9 3.9 40.5 35.6 23.9 3.0 29.5 25.0 22.7 9.0 10.7 6.3
MLB 44.4 23.8 24.7 7.1 37.2 37.5 25.2 3.9 32.6 24.8 24.4 5.9 7.0 4.8

 

Now let's hop to the batted ball profile. So, to put it simply as my caveman brain loves to, what you want in a player with pop like Larnach does is two things, putting the ball into the air and pulling it, and shockingly Larnach does both well above league average. Looking at his spray chart from last year you can pretty clearly see it, literally all of his Home Runs are pulled at least a little bit

image_2025-02-24_195948860.png.b2fdb02d54b0aaddffa17c89b0002ab4.png

Now, as someone who has some ooga booga brain from time to time (I blame the brain damage from concussions back in High School Football), I have definitely fell into the eye test trap crying about how Larnach always hits the ball 5 million MPH into the ground for outs but this just isn't true. His GB rate is literally league average, I suppose it's bias seeing the ball smoked all the time leading you to think it happens more often than it does.

So with all this in mind we just need to touch the final but also most important thing, that he's gonna finally be a full-time starter on opening day! 2024 was a solid year that bought him a starting role that will finally give him the chance to put destiny in his own hands.

To conclude this rambling mess of stats and word vomit, Larnach has the tools to be a solidly above average corner OF.  I'm buying all the stock possible in him and even if you're jaded now I hope this might've fooled you into having some hope for our in-house players again. I leave you with perhaps the single greatest HR of Larnach's career, I honestly think this absolute monster could not be matched by even the likes of Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, heck even Babe Ruth or Barry Bonds aren't hitting this kind of peak performance

 

 

 

2 Comments


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Josh Rahman

Posted

Also sorry I just pasted the full tables making it a bit clunky to read, didn't wanna dick around with getting only certain bits since I've been pretty busy lately and I just really wanted to finish this one while I have some time before I move this weekend 

KBJ1

Posted

I wish. I thought the same about Kiriloff last year, and look where that went.

For all we know (and hope for) Rodriguez gets the nod in LF.

Would love to see Larnach with a 1B mitt.

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