Potential Trade Targets(Part 1)
Entry posted by Elinoah1110 in Trade Deadline ·
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At the time of this writing, the Minnesota Twins are 45-36. This places them seven games behind the MLB-best Cleveland Guardians and a game ahead of a surprisingly competitive Royals team. The AL Central is almost unrecognizable from a year ago, as the Twins were leading the division with a 40-41 record at this time last year. The Twins have seen players like Willi Castro, Jose Miranda, Royce Lewis, Griffin Jax, and Carlos Correa step up, while others like Eduoard Julien, Matt Wallner, Christian Vazquez, and Louis Varland have regressed. The front office and ownership have to feel some pressure from the fans for the decrease in payroll over the offseason, and the trade deadline is a great way to buy back some level of fan trust. In this article, and some future articles, I will explore some realistic trade targets that could help the Twins gear up to catch Cleveland or make a run as a Wild Card Team:
Oakland A’s Relievers:
After surpassing early expectations, the Oakland Athletics have returned to a more modest position. In their final season in Oakland, the team sits at 29-54, placing them at the bottom of a disappointing AL West division. The team has several areas that need strengthening, but their bullpen stands out as a strong suit. Hard-throwing Mason Miller will likely be a top arm to watch at the deadline, but the Twins may not meet the A’s standard for a trade package. Therefore, let’s focus on a few other arms that could potentially bolster the Twins' bullpen:
Austin Adams is enjoying a decent season at age 33. Although his era is 4.88, fans can expect some positive regression, as his BABIP is .388. Although he has a solid strikeout rate of 27.5%, Adams’ achilles heel is his walk rate of 13.5%, which places him in the 6th percentile of all pitchers(minimum 100 batters faced). Batters don’t typically hit the ball hard when they put it in play, as his average exit velocity is just 83.9mph(99th percentile), and his weak contact % is 11.4%(99th percentile). Adams also features an elite whiff rate of 33.9%(95th percentile). All of these numbers can be explained by his pitch mix as he throws his slider a whopping 76.4% of the time, which is the third-highest rate in baseball. This pitch features an average spin rate of 2975 rpm, making it one of the best sliders in baseball. Adams is playing on an $800k deal and is arbitration-eligible next year. The Twins have gone after pitchers with great sliders in the past and increased its usage, making Adams a very intriguing target for the bullpen.
Lucas Erceg is another A’s reliever who, at first glance, doesn’t have great numbers. However, taking a deeper dive reveals some very lucrative underlying metrics. Erceg is a hard-throwing right-hander, with his fastball averaging 99mph. He also features a slider, changeup, and sinker, throwing them an even 23.3% of the time. He ranks in the 99th percentile with an 84.2 mph average exit velocity and the 95th percentile with a 29.6% hard-hit rate. Erceg has incredible swing-and-miss stuff, which explains his 33.3% whiff rate(94th percentile) and 28.6% strikeout rate(87th percentile). Erceg may have a high price tag since he is in his second season, making $750k, and he’s under team control until 2030. Erceg’s stuff implies more upside than his 3.49 era, making him a great option to pair with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax at the end of the bullpen.
Reed Garrett:
Only time will tell if the New York Mets will sell at the deadline. They currently sit at 39-39, just 1.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot. Reed Garrett is a good reliever for the Twins to target if they decide to sell. Like Lucas Erceg, Garrett is under control until 2030 and only makes $740k this season. Garrett has played on four teams in parts of four MLB seasons, but he’s been enjoying his most successful season in the bigs. He’s a hard-throwing righty with a deep pitch arsenal, as he features a split-finger (24.6%), cutter(24.2%), sweeper(22.8%), four-seamer (18.4%), and a sinker(10%). He’s in the 99th and 98th percentile for whiff rate(38.5%) and strikeout rate(35.6%), respectively, and he consistently gets batters to chase(33.8% of the time). When batters put the ball in play, they rarely reach, as Garrett features an expected batting average of just .182(97th percentile). The Mets would likely need a large trade package to pry Garrett away, as they’re a competitive team, and he doesn’t hit free agency until 2030, but this may be the missing piece that the Twins need in their bullpen, and they have the ammo to pull it off.
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