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2021 Prospect Rankings: 25-30


Danchat

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I'm attempting my first batch of prospect rankings ever! Here's how it will go:

 

I'm calling this an Aggregated Prospect Ranking. That means that I'm outsourcing opinions from several sources to form my own rankings - I haven't watched most of these players, so there isn't a whole lot that I can add from a scouting standpoint. I would, however, like to weigh the rankings to factors measured by others; for example, boosting a player's ranking due to position scarcity, or quantifying how their minor league play boosts their odds at panning out in the majors. It'll make for a useful ranking to look back on in the future, but just remember that I'm not an expert!

 

I will reveal my formula for ranking the players where they are in the final article... and there will be some selections that some will find surprising. But I hope you will enjoy it!

 

Sources:

MLB.com Pipeline: https://www.mlb.com/prospects/twins/

Fangraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/twins

Baseball Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dakota-chalmers-663793?stats=career-r-pitching-milb

Other Prospect Rankings on Twins Daily

 

 

Honorable Mentions

Outside the Top 30

 

RHP Griffin Jax - The former 3rd rounder has been available to be taken in the Rule 5 Draft in 2019 and 2020, but with no takers. He's stuffed the stat sheet in the minors with consistently low ERAs, but does not get strikeouts often and his stuff is likely not going to cut it in the MLB. He's already 26 and in AAA, which makes him a spot starter at best.

 

OF Kala'i Rosario - A 5th rounder in the very small Twins 2021 Draft Class, Rosario is a high schooler out of Hawaii. Scouts expect him to develop some power as he gets older. I could see him cracking prospect lists in 2022-23 if all goes well.

 

RHP Bailey Ober - Despite topping out around 87 MPH, Ober drew tons of strikeouts and clean innings in his first full season in 2019 between Rookie league, A+, and AA. The Twins saw enough promise in him to hand him a 40 man roster spot and could make his MLB debut this year. Ober will likely need to move to the bullpen to get a few more ticks on his fastball, but his breaking pitches and command are top notch.

 

RHP Dakota Chalmers - Acquired in the Fernando Rodney trade, Chalmers was added to the 40 man roster in late 2019, meaning he's already burned an option. He has a fastball that tops out at 96 and has the secondary pitches to consistently strike anyone out, but he's outside of the top 30 due to an inability to throw strikes and a spotty injury history. If he ever does crack the majors, it'll likely be as a reliever since he's never pitched more than 67 innings in a season.

 

OF Willie Joe Garry Jr. - He didn't hit so well in Elizabethton(rookie league) with a .228/.301/.365 line, but scouts are never-the-less still excited for him. The lefty has the tools to be a CFer with a strong arm, but his bat has a long way to go. He's not much more than a lottery ticket at this point.

 

3B Seth Gray - Gray had a decent debut at Elizabethton with a .225/.336/.445 (.781 OPS) line. He already has hit for power, as he swatted in 11 HRs in his first 257 PAs, and drew 30 walks in that span. His fielding ability is questionable, as it's fair to wonder if he'll stick at 3B.

 

 

The Top 30

 

#30 - Yunior Severino 2B (International from Dominican Republic, acquired in 2018 trade)

Severino had a quality rookie season in 2018, but fractured his thumb in 2019 and didn't play much. Still only 21, Severino has plenty of raw strength, but has yet to put it on display. He's going to be striking out a lot. He has a strong enough arm to play any spot on the diamond, but his bigger frame will likely put him at 2B.

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#29 - Emmanuel Rodriguez OF (International from Dominican Republic, 2019)

We haven't gotten to see our top international prospect from the 2019 class thanks to the virus. He'll turn 18 this year and has a long road ahead of him, but boasts a jack of all trades toolset. He's got a strong arm and enough speed to play center, and even some pop in his bat.

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#28 - Alreick Soularie OF (2nd round 2020, Tennessee)

Many questioned this pick at the time, and you can count me as one of them. Normally I'd be placing a 2nd rounder coming out of college higher on the list, but there are too many question marks surrounding Soularie to earn a high ranking. He appears to be a one tool prospect - he can hit. He managed a .336 batting average at Tennessee and reportedly shows great bat control. He was not good defensively and has a ways to go if he wants to be a corner outfielder.

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#27 - Josh Winder RHP (7th round 2018, Virginia Military Institute)

Winder put himself on the radar with a strong 2019 campaign, sporting a WHIP under 1.0 and a shiny 2.65 ERA. He even managed 5.96 innings a start. He was old for pitching at Low A (22), and may not have the type of pitches that makes him a true threat in the big leagues, but the results are there. He will be Rule 5 eligible in 2021.

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#26 - Will Holland 2B (5th round 2019, Auburn)

Holland had a rough outing at Elizabethton hitting .192, Holland profiles as an athlete who is still figuring out how to hit. Fangraphs rated him with the highest "run" tool, but thinks he'll end up at 2B, while MLB.com's report claims he can stick at short. If he can hold up defensively at short, he'll have a chance to develop into a quality utility infielder.

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#25 - Danny De Andrade SS (International from Venezuela, 2021)

The Twins just acquired De Andrade two weeks ago, spending $2.2M to land him as their top international free agent of the year. He ranked as a top 10 international prospect in this year's class. The 16-year-old has a solid frame to grow into, but none of his tools stands out. We don't have many pure shortstop prospects in our system, so it would be ideal if De Andrade could rise up to be one of the better ones.

 

Coming up next: #17-24

3 Comments


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Thanks for doing the honorable mentions as it is nice to see who was close to making the list.  FWIW I agree with most of those.  I like where you put Solarie as a fair number of analysts were not sure the bat would translate and at best he would be an average defender in Left or second base.  I think he is too high on the other lists but maybe he will prove me wrong I know Jeffers did.

 

While I agree with what you said about Windor and he placed about the same on MLB's prospect list I think you might be short selling him.  Lot's of reports of improved velocity and a legitimate change up.  I think he OK at this level but there is reason to bump him up as well.

 

I think you have Andrade placed about right but many analysts see him moving over to third and he has the power stroke to be fine there.

 

Nice list I like it.

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Thanks for doing the honorable mentions as it is nice to see who was close to making the list.  FWIW I agree with most of those.  I like where you put Solarie as a fair number of analysts were not sure the bat would translate and at best he would be an average defender in Left or second base.  I think he is too high on the other lists but maybe he will prove me wrong I know Jeffers did.

 

While I agree with what you said about Windor and he placed about the same on MLB's prospect list I think you might be short selling him.  Lot's of reports of improved velocity and a legitimate change up.  I think he OK at this level but there is reason to bump him up as well.

 

I think you have Andrade placed about right but many analysts see him moving over to third and he has the power stroke to be fine there.

 

Nice list I like it.

Winder's profile was written before the Fangraphs update that went on about his MPH gain, so he should probably be a bit higher.

 

The international prospects are hard to rank when they're so young and so far out, but I feel like this is the best spot to place them. Urbina will be in the #20-11 range.

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