Respy

Hildenberger-Mientkiewicz-Lombardozzi

Backfoot slider? Just speculation.

This, exactly. But they have to trade with whatever team claims the player first, right? So if this is the case, it must be a team high on the waiver list?

Some matchups to watch today: During the last series between the Indians and Twins, Jose Ramirez went 11 for 18 (a mere .611) and is on a 10-game hitting streak with 9 of the last 10 being multi-hit efforts (and 5 of the 10 being 3-hit games!).Brian Dozier is only 4 for 32 lifetime against Trevor Bauer. With Adrianza going to the DL, will Molitor play the statistics and keep hot-hitting Eduardo Escobar in the lineup by giving Escobar or Polanco a rare start at second base?Miguel Sano 2 for 23 (.087) with 11 K's against Bauer and his nasty breaking pitches. Sano also went 0 for 4 with 3 K's yesterday. Does Escobar play third base today?Joe Mauer is 12 for 37 (.324) lifetime against Bauer. Sound pretty typical? Well, 8 of those 12 hits are extra-base hits (7 doubles and 1 HR) which gives Joe a sweet .595 slugging% in the matchup. Look for Molitor to try and get Rosario (10 for 25 against Bauer) and Vargas (8 for 18 against Bauer) into the lineup. With Joe likely at first, Vargas would need to DH and if Grossman plays, that could mean a day off for Buxton or Kepler.Mejia is 1-0 this year in games that start at 6:10pm CST (c'mon, I had to find some kind of positive sign for him). Twins X-Factor: The bullpen. Will we see Gee or Hildenberger pitch today immediately after the callup? Mejia is averaging 4 innings per start. The Twins bullpen is the worst in baseball at 5.20 ERA. Maybe the Twins should invest some money in US Patent 3247859: Anti-Implosion Device.Indians X-Factor: The bullpen. Indians bullpen is the best in the league at 2.56 ERA.My Magic 8-ball says: Indians win 11-6.

Gee will be temporary as Hughes and Santiago are almost ready to come back. I really hope Hildenberger can stick. About time!

I agree that Torii may not be the best at teaching how to avoid a strikeout, but he knows a lot about composure at the plate and the mental side of the game. Torii in my opinion learned how to be a more clutch hitter and hit smart in different counts later in his career. Don't forget also that Torii played a big part in Dozier turning around his hitting in 2016.

Back to the original question - How long is his leash? I would say as long as the WAR stays positive. It's important to note as well that he hits lefties decently, which helps the club. Some may say he's not adjusting, but his BB/K rate is his best this year (0.29 versus 0.13 each of last two years) and his OPS is at a career high (0.771). It would be great if he walked more and/or had an OPS above 0.800, but if he averages double digit homeruns and steals, hits lefties decently, and plays decent-to-good defense, is it worth complaining about as a #7-#9 hitter? Still with only 1000 MLB AB's, I'd give him more time, but am not opposed to putting more pressure on his playing time. PS - He does happen to be having his best month offensively in June with a .286 average, .880 OPS, 4 HR, 5BB, 13 K's.

Meh. At least he has more MLB experience than these other guys we've been picking up.

Also this: "FanGraphs’ WAR for pitchers is based on FIP (plus infield fly balls). We also have a version called RA9-WAR which is based on runs allowed. Baseball-Reference uses runs allowed and attempts to correct for the team defense." http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ So you are correct that his low Fangraphs WAR seems to be based on FIP. Which, I generally don't agree with that methodology because WAR should be based on actual stats, not theoretical stats or accounting for how lucky/unlucky you are. A low actual ERA contributes to teams' wins, not FIP.

It's of course all relative to the algorithms used, but I've considered anything above about 6 WAR for a starting pitcher to mean they pitched a full season at ace/elite level. Clayton Kershaw, for example, is usually around 6-8 WAR. I would say Santana's WAR of 3.1 from Baseball Reference at half way through the season, sounds about right. His Fangraphs rating of 0.9 WAR puts Santana on pace for about 2 WAR by the end of season, which is just not right, considering Fangraphs' own definition of WAR: "Average starting pitchers also are worth around 2 WAR." Santana has not been an average pitcher this year. This also from Fangraphs: "For position players and starting pitchers, here is a good rule-of-thumb chart: Scrub 0-1 WAR Role Player 1-2 WAR Solid Starter 2-3 WAR Good Player 3-4 WAR All-Star 4-5 WAR Superstar 5-6 WAR MVP 6+ WAR" http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

Consider it considered!

I agree entirely that Granite and Wade are projecting very, very nicely to be at least 4th outfielders. What's unfortunate is how our MLB roster is currently constructed with 2 utility infielders (Escobar and Adrianza) and 2 DH's (Grossman and Vargas), we currently have no room for a 4th outfielder. Wade could come to AAA for injured Palka, but I think they would have done that last month if they were interested. On a related note, anyone know how decent or bad Mitch Garver looked in the outfield?

What I'm arguing is that I feel Wade has not dominated AA. His single dominating factor offensively is his walk rate, which will likely decline at higher levels. I can't comment on the quality of his defense though.

Wade still does not have very many minor league reps (960 PA). For comparison, Granite has 1689 MiLB PA's. I love seeing Wade's patience at the plate, but in reality his power numbers have dropped every year and his walk rates are likely going to take a heavy hit at AAA and MLB against pitchers who can actually throw strikes. If they need him because of OF depth at AAA, then sure bring him up. Otherwise I see no issue letting Wade adjust a bit more at AA.

Some matchups to watch today: Derek Holland is already 0-2 against the Twins this yearHolland is a lefty, and look for righties like Grossman (5 for 14 against Holland) and Escobar (4 for 7 against Holland) to make an impact today.Mauer might get the day off today, only hitting 4 for 20 against Holland with 6 strikeouts. Vargas or Sano might be at 1B today.Ervin Santana looks to bounce back after going only 4.0 and 5.0 IP in 2 of his 3 last starts.Santana should be careful pitching to Melky Cabrera (12 for 38 lifetime against Santana and 17 for his last 40) and Abreu (6 for 15 lifetime against Santana and 12 for his last 29). But he'll try to mow down the rest of the lineup which is collectively hitting around .200 against Santana.The Twins' X-Factor: The Twins need a deep start from Ervin Santana. If he can pitch deep into the game, look for a Twins W.The White Sox X-Factor: Todd Frazier's bat. Frazier has been in a prolonged season slump, hitting .205 with 'only' 11 homeruns. After going 0 for 18 last week, he hit a homerun Saturday and has been putting the ball in play. The White Sox need Frazier to pick it up and knock in more runs for their offense to be competitive.My magic 8-ball says: Twins win 6-3

I basically concur with everything. Very nice article. I especially am pleased to see that you are OK with Nick Gordon spending some more time at AA. Though a few more walks would be nice, his bat by all means has been very good this year, and a big improvement on previous years. But, he definitely needs as many fielding reps, especially at shortstop, as possible. Gordon has 15 errors in 62 games this year (after having 26 in 105 games last year). For comparison, Polanco has had 4 errors in 52 games this year at the MLB level. Gordon is still only 21, and Vielma is ahead of Gordon in the organizational chart because he needs to be on the 40-man roster, so Gordon could very possibly spend the rest of the year at AA and that would be OK. Gordon can spend all of next year at AAA while Dozier is in the last year of his contract (assuming he's not traded), then we can expect to see Gordon in September 2018 and hopefully as a regular in 2019 at the still-young age of 23. Granite will be quite interesting to watch. He just keeps hitting the ball. As much as people would probably like to compare him statistically to a Ben Revere, Revere was a .700 OPS hitter at AA/AAA and Granite has been around .800. Hopefully he can play his way onto the Twins roster, but I agree that he would need to be starting most days.

Polanco has been, and always will be, an injury nightmare. They'd never give him up anyways because he has tons of potential and he's still cheap for them. Gerrit Cole is worth mentioning, but I think would still require a massive prospect haul despite his recent health issues. Being realistic, if the Twins are talking to the Pirates, it would most likely be for Daniel Hudson or Wade LeBlanc. Both have been OK (by no means good) out of the bullpen this year. Either would be a slight upgrade to our bullpen. And, both of them are capable of spot starting. Hudson is 30 and would be $5.5M this year and $5.5M next year. Not too bad. LeBlanc is affordable at $750k this year and $1.25M next year, plus arbitration in 2019, but he's already 32 and would need to fit into our plans. Nicasio would also be an option, but I think the cost would be too high as he's having a fine year, and becomes a free agent at the end of the year.

Correction: I see reports of Lewis starting at GCL, and some speculation that Javier as well would start in GCL. Maybe they plan to rotate Royce into the outfield a bit?

I hadn't thought about the possibility of Javier and Lewis starting this year on the same team. I'd think Javier will start at DSL or GCL, and Lewis at Elizabethton?

If I had to predict, I would say they'll be sellers. In reality though, I think we are seeing as long as they hang around .500, the Front Office is going to float in limbo and keep control of as many current players as possible. July 31 is still a LONG time from now. They could be 10 games under .500 or 10 games over .500 (and that would make the decision easier). If they are around .500, which puts the team in moderate playoff contention, I think they will look at offers as both buyers and sellers up to the deadline. The first move (if there is one) would likely trigger which direction they need to go. It's also very possible that they do nothing. It might take too much to make the team good (ie mid-rotation starter), yet they want to stay in contention and not sell off Santana, Dozier, etc.

.324 the last 10 days with 6 walks and 6 strikeouts. Good little run and he seems to be making some positive adjustments. Thanks for the updates.

I agree that the Twins need to be careful with Romero and Gonsalves, and promoting them to the big leagues soon might not be the smartest idea. So what to do in the meantime? I am not a fan of these waiver wire pickups for SP at all. For the starting rotation, that leaves us with Berrios and Santana. Let's assume that Santiago will be back soon and needs to be our third starter. Two spots are left. Duffey is an option but he looks good in the bullpen and our bullpen needs the help too. Kyle Gibson has obviously struggled but has potential to be an innings eater. Mejia has struggled as well, but in today's market, he's honestly been an adequate #5 guy keeping the team in the game most starts. Mejia is still young with some potential, as well. So, I personally think we can get by with: 1. Santana 2. Berrios 3. Santiago 4. Gibson 5. Mejia Now for fixing the bullpen? I think the FO needs to be more aggressive here. Hughes when he returns will need to go to the bullpen, barring injuries to the above 5. Duffey has been good, Kintzler has been good, Rogers has been good, Boshers looks like he might stick, Belisle is improving. Busenitz might stick. I'm on the fence with Breslow. Haley will be returning and I suspect they will leave him on the roster. Melotakis probably needs to get brought up at some point (though he would give us another lefty on top of Breslow, Boshers, and Rogers). They need to find a way to give Hildenberger a shot, by waiving one of our waiver wire pickups off the 40-man. 1. Kintzler 2. Duffey 3. Rogers 4. Belisle 5. Boshers 6. Hughes 7. Busenitz or Hildenberger 8. Breslow or Melotakis My math here says dump Breslow. Send Turley down. Hildenberger would need to remain at AAA for now unless they dump Belisle, DFA Turley, or transfer Hughes to 60-day DL if he has any major setbacks. Haley I'd personally send back to Boston, but will probably take Busenitz's spot.

Wow. How long have minor league teams been celebrating playoff births by trashing the locker room like MLB teams do?

PS - It also matters that Granite is a lefty who doesn't hit lefties as well (2017 OPS rights/lefties = .944/.701). Wouldn't make a good 4th outfielder option when we need to give Kepler/Rosario some rest. (Buxton also hits lefties worse for his career). (Buxton also hits everybody worse for his career).

I would presume that the FO is all-in on Buxton, Kepler, and Rosario. And with a glut of DH players and needing too many pitchers on the staff, there's no room for Granite. Give him a couple more hundred at bats in AAA and he'll be a good September call-up. If anyone between Buxton/Kepler/Rosario/Grossman gets injured, Granite should be up right away. If Granite keeps hitting .500 for the next month, they need to consider bringing him up for Vargas or a pitcher. Hopefully he'll stick on the 25-man roster next spring.