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Respy

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Everything posted by Respy

  1. Respy
    .250 28 Homeruns 90 runs 80 RBI He'll set a career high in steals. Let's say 22.
  2. Respy
    MLB re-did its website layout. Brain is broken.
  3. Respy
    Haley. Thriller. At least they're throwing zeroes on the board.
  4. Respy
    Anyone know if opposing teams tend to deploy pull-shifts for Castro? He seems to me to be fairly pull-happy, especially on infield grounders. Perhaps there could be a benefit here to putting a speedy guy like Buxton in the lineup in front of Castro, so that his steal threat and first-to-third threat makes the other team less likely to shift? On that note, does anyone know if a team is less likely to shift when there's a speedy runner on first?
  5. Respy
    LED lights for night games? They say the visibility overall will be better. 2016 Mauer AVG: Daytime (.291) ; Nighttime (.245)
  6. Respy
    So much of this depends on where in the world Moliter puts him in the batting order. 1st? 2nd? 5th? I'd assume he's mostly done batting 3rd? Regardless of where he hits, I think he can still put up a modest .800 OPS with an average around .270. Regardless of where he hits, he needs to be a clutch hitter for the Twins. 49 RBI and 1 homerun with runners on base, is not going to cut it. If only he could hit in every count like it was 3-2 (.359 average, .484 slugging). Unfortunately I'd say he gets a bit less than 400 at bats, and ends up with 7 homeruns and 45-50 RBI.
  7. Respy
    Slightly off-topic, but for fun, I thought I'd also share a projected Twins lineup, with 2016 clutch values shown: Polanco (0.1) Mauer (-1.8) Dozier (-2.3) Sano (-0.5) Buxton (-1.5) Kepler (-1.1) Park (-0.9) Castro (0.1) Rosario (-1.0) Well that's depressing.
  8. Respy
    I know analytics does not tell the whole story, but I'd point out that Henry Blanco's 'Clutch' stat was -0.65 with the Twins in 2004. FYI Jason Castro's average yearly MLB Clutch value is -0.2. Interpretation chart below (via Fangraphs): Rating Clutch Excellent 2.0 Great 1.0 Above Average 0.5 Average 0.0 Below Average -0.5 Poor -1.0 Awful -2.0
  9. Respy
    Regarding his strikeout numbers, you can look at his minor league numbers and his first two MLB seasons (2010 and 2012) and he had a walk rate of around 15%ish. But, he only averaged 6 homeruns per 400 plate appearances. I think at some point around 2012-2013 someone told him that if he is going to have any value whatsoever as a hitter, he needed to start popping some dingers. His strikeout rate doubled to about 30%, and his homer rate about doubled to 12.3 HR per 400 plate appearances. Has that made him more valuable as a hitter? I don't know. I think modern analytics say probably yes. I don't think he'll change his approach given his successful offensive year in 2013.
  10. Respy
    Offensively, I'm most interested where his batting average will sit. .210 is painful. .230 is tolerable. His 2013 season at .276 would be amazing. His BABIP numbers give a good indication of where he projects. MLB average BABIP is about .297-.300. The year he hit .276, his BABIP was .351. A very lucky year for him. The last three years where he hit, .222, .211, and .210, his BABIP was .294, .280, .297, respectively. A bit on the unlucky side, perhaps. Using these three years, and MLB average BABIP of .297, would say he projects to hit at .219. Again, I would be happy if he hits over .230 and hits over 10 homeruns. Regarding those homeruns, I looked at his batted balls chart against RHP from 2014-2016 on Fangraphs (cannot figure out how to paste chart here). 20 HR to right field. 2 to center field. 10 to left field. 6 of them to left field were really short (short porch in Houston). Those 6 would not be homeruns at Target Field. You might ask about deep flies to Tal's Hill in Houston that would be Target Field homeruns? It looks like Castro doesn't hit many deep fly ball to center. So, we might see a regression in homeruns this year.
  11. Respy
    I don't think they selected him with the intention of putting him in the rotation this April. He put up solid numbers in AA/AAA last year, and had a phenomenal appearance at winter ball (one run in 23 2/3 innings) right before the Rule 5 draft. Before Wimmers came into the discussion, I would assume that Haley was viewed as the top option in long relief, gave some rotation depth, and could provide some options for 2018+ if he had a good 2017 in the bullpen. He might still not make the team, but the Rule 5 draft is fairly low-risk (minus the measly $25,000 return fee if he goes back to the Red Sox). Regarding your question on his history, he's got a pitcher's build with decent stats and durability, with potential to be bottom-of-the rotation starter. His scouting report repeats the words "flashes" and "at times" and seems to indicate that he could be a decent pitcher if he figured out how to be more consistent. This for a Twins team that had a terrible pitching staff next year. I wouldn't have made the Rule 5 pick of Haley myself, but it makes enough sense.
  12. Respy
    He started as recently as 2015, and averaged over an inning per relief appearance at AAA. Should be fine as a long reliever, but then I'm not sure why we would have both Wimmers and Haley on the 25-man roster.
  13. Respy
    Yes, I recall watching Gibson pitch last spring training and thinking how good his sinker and slider were moving. I thought for sure that he was poised for a breakout year. Then he hit a brick wall in April. I remember thinking the same thing about Mike Pelfrey in spring training of 2015. I have come under the assumption that most sinkerball pitchers prefer warm/mild/fair weather so they can stay loose and consistent. (I'd also point out Carlos Silva 2004-2007 Metrodome ERA 3.82; away ERA 5.67). Gibson should improve this year but my expectations are not too high.
  14. Respy
    Agree 100% with both Brandon and Brock. If we have thought that putting him at leadoff was too much pressure, imagine putting him right in the heart of the order! I'd bat him around 7th and let him work his way up.
  15. Respy
    In a world of advanced scouting and statistics, and extreme shifts, I think it's best for a scrappy-type player to be able to do both. We are going to be able to see more success in the future for baseball-savvy players who can make both those short-term and long-term adjustments to stay ahead of the scouting by other teams. Hopefully Granite can be that type of player.
  16. Respy
    You might just be in luck this year!
  17. Respy
    http://m.twins.mlb.com/news/article/220115716/twins-install-led-lights-at-target-field/ "LED lighting installed at Target Field" Remind me to bring my sunglasses to the next night game I attend.
  18. Respy
    Hate to say it, but given that Duffey is starting today and Mejia is pitching in relief, this late into spring training, the managerial staff probably has firm intentions of sending Mejia to AAA to start the season. And considering that Berrios has only pitched 4 innings with the Twins and 5 innings with Puerto Rico this spring, I would bet that for at least this reason, he will also start at AAA. So unless I'm missing some innings over at the minor league complex, it would seem to me that Duffey is in line for the 5th starter spot?
  19. Respy
    ByungHo Park's spring training OPS north of 1.000 also makes me happy.
  20. Respy
    According to http://www.holidayinsights.com/moreholidays/march.htm it is also Extraterrestrial Abductions Day. So there's that.
  21. Respy
    Danny Santana 2017 WAR: Over/Under 0.0?
  22. Respy
    Should be closer by next year, at age 27. If we can manage to get between 3-5 years of solid closing out of him without getting hurt, maybe even more if we are lucky, that would be fantastic for this team going forward. Remember that we've only gotten 3.5 years of closing out of Perkins. I liked Kintzler in that role last year, but it's just not a good long-term solution.
  23. Respy
    Nice article, thanks. Hopefully he doesn't start to get battered at AAA, and keeps those walk numbers down. Sounds like he has better control of mechanics than most guys his size.
  24. Respy
    Generally, yes. Can't complain. Can point out, though, that a majority of innings for our bullpen guys come against the minor league backups. But, the pen should look a tad sharper than last year.
  25. Respy
    Great to see the solid game from Mejia. I would assume with only 12 AAA starts under his belt, Mejia will pitch at least a half season at Rochester. If Mejia was the only left-handed rotation candidate, this might be a different story. But with Santiago currently slotted for the rotation, that's a non-factor.
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