Thiéres Rabelo

ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke the news of a plan to have all teams play only in Arizona (here are the details). Not a lot of people loved the idea, like Baseball Prospectus’ Craig Goldstein, who really disliked the idea. But that was just one of the ideas being proposed. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported today another one, which would eliminate the traditional leagues and rearrange the clubs in new divisions, playing in Arizona and Florida. Whether we like them or not, those plans indicate that MLB and the players are very open to having even an unorthodox season, just so baseball can be back. One of the players who could benefit the most from the return of baseball is Twins’ starter Michael Pineda. After so many rough patches in his career, being able to come back and continue playing the way he did in the second portion of 2019 could be huge for him and Minnesota. A brief look back at his issues Pineda was a rookie sensation for the Mariners in 2011, being named to an All-Star Game that very year. However, since the conclusion of that season, things have not been easy. To begin with, after being acquired by the Yankees in early 2012, he started dealing with multiple shoulder injuries, which ended up sidelining him for the entire seasons that year and in 2013. Back at the majors in 2014, injuries did not give him a break and another shoulder injury cut his season short, allowing him to deliver only 76 1/3 innings. That was also the year of his infamous pine tar incident, which earned him a 10-game suspension. In the following two seasons, injuries weren’t as much of a problem for him, but he started to slowly decrease his productivity. Despite reaching at least 160 2/3 innings in both years, his ERA was never lower than 4.37 and he posted a career worst FIP for the time being, of 3.79. Some of his peripherals did improve in that span, like xFIP and K%, but, overall, hitters had figured him out. Then, after a not so promising start of the 2017, he was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament, which forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery. His rebirth with the Twins We all know the story of how the Twins smartly bet on Pineda in late 2017 and patiently waited for him to be ready for action in 2019 after rehab in the previous year. Nobody knew what to expect, as Pineda was a much, much different player from the one he was with the Yankees and the Mariners. For starters, he was no longer the flamethrower he once was. His velocity dropped to 92.8 mph on his four- seamer, the first time ever it was below 94.1 mph. He relied much more on his command, which had always been decent. Still, it was hard to predict the outcome in the beginning of the season. Knee issues which started in late 2018 and persisted until the beginning of last year caused Pineda to really struggle in the first months as a Twin. From March to May, he posted a 5.34 ERA in 11 starts, allowing hitters a .803 OPS. He also posted a 5.26 FIP and 4.94 xFIP, while striking out batters only 20.3% of the time. So, yeah, the first impression wasn’t the best. But when he came back from the IL, he turned things around. In his last 15 starts, from June to September, he posted a 3.10 ERA, 3.18 FIP and 3.87 xFIP. He was incredibly solid and the aforementioned velocity decrease was not at all a problem, because he managed to increase value of most of his go-to pitches. His four-seam had a 9.3 wFA (Four-seam Fastball runs above average), the first time since his rookie year that it was positive. Also, he turned his changeup into one of the best in the game, with a 5.4 wCH (career best) and a .253 wOBA, the 27th-lowest in the league. He was also one of the best pitchers in MLB at pitch tunneling, according to Fangraphs’ Michael Augstine. ESPN defined Pineda as “one of the most underappreciated improvements made by the Twins” in 2019. The suspension for PED’s. What will happen? Hopes were really high for what Pineda could bring to the table in the postseason. Unfortunately, he tested positive for hydrochlorothiazide, a banned substance he consumed by taking a medication to help him manage his weight. He was given an 80-game suspension, that was reduced to 60 games after appeal. He started serving his suspension in the final 21 games of the season, with the remaining 39 supposed to be served this year. But now that the season, if it’s played at all, is much likely going to be shortened, isn’t it feasible to wonder if MLB could alter his suspension? At least for me, it is. In a 162-game season, Pineda’s suspension would represent roughly 24% of the games. Maybe I’m crazy here, but I don’t think it’s absurd to consider this. If the major leagues actually happen this year, Pineda is certainly one of the players I’m most looking forward to seeing. If his second half of the season last year wasn’t a fluke, he can definitely be one of the great contributors for the Twins to try to win the division and maybe go further in October. He needs this. We need this too. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Twins 6, Toronto 3 Box Score Blyleven: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Gladden (2), Gaetti (1) Multi-hit games: Gladden (4-for-5, 2 HR, 2B), Brunansky (2-for-4), Lombardozzi (2-for-3, 2B, 3B) Top 3 WPA: Gladden .295, Gaetti .169, Lombardozzi .129 Fans were still going through ‘Twins Fever’ on that Friday night, as never before had they had world champs to cheer on. It was the home opener of the ring-ceremony series against the Blue Jays and no one wanted to miss that. Not even a frustrating 0-2 start of the season after a series in New York against the Yankees could ruin the party at Metrodome for Twins fans. The previous year, Dan Gladden didn’t have the most impressive debut regular season in a Twins uniform, but he was one of the great contributors to the Twins’ World Series run. He , putting the game out of the Cardinals’ reach. So, he was definitely on his way to becoming a fan favorite. Also, on the previous game, he had his third career four-hit game, in the 5-3 loss against the Yankees, showing early signs of what would become his career year.After a quick 1-2-3 top of the first from Bert Blyleven, Gladden wasted no time and hit a leadoff home run deep to left on the third pitch he saw, making it 1-0 Twins. Blue Jays starter Dave Stieb couldn’t find his stuff and after allowing two runners to reach base in the bottom of the second, it was time to face Gladden again and things didn’t go his way. The Twins outfielder hit a ground ball to the gap and scored Tom Brunansky, doubling the Twins lead. Toronto went on to tie the game in the sixth, only to see Gary Gaetti break the tie in the same inning with a leadoff home run in the bottom. Minnesota put on a couple more runs in the seventh. Stieb was taken off the game after giving up a leadoff triple to Steve Lombardozzi. Reliever Mark Eichhorn's first batter faced was no one but Gladden himself, who doubled to bring in another run. Toronto made another pitching change after two quick outs, which, however, didn’t stop Gladden from advancing to third on a bunt. With reliever David Wells on the mound and Kent Hrbek batting, Gladden did the unthinkable: before Wells’ third pitch, he moved up and stole home for the very first time in his career, making it 5-2 Twins. "We worked on it in spring training, and it was the perfect situation," Gladden told Star Tribune staff writer Dennis Brackin after the game. "Two outs, left-handed hitter, left-handed pitcher." To top it all off, there was still time for Gladden to come back and homer off the same Wells in the eighth, scoring the Twins’ final run of the night. That was only the first time in his career that he had a multi-HR game, including postseasons. It was also the only game of his career in which he had at least four hits, four runs batted in and multiple homers. You can check highlights of that game, as well as a detailed overview of the 1988 season, on this video: Minnesota was off to a bad start, going 4-11 in their first 15 games, but eventually things picked up and they went on to have their best record in 18 years, finishing the year with a 91-71 record, the third best in the majors. They didn’t make the playoffs, as Oakland won the AL West with a 104-58 record, on their way to a World Series appearance. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

First of all, I think it’s important to state that I don’t think things are going to head the wrong way. This already good team only became stronger and is, in theory, bound to have another positive year. But maybe it’s important to imagine what alternative routes a team can take when facing unexpected adversities. Injuries are almost one-hundred percent impossible to foresee. So, there’s nothing a club and a player can do to completely avoid them. But, yeah, they’re the biggest risk for any team (ask the Yankees right now). Even last year, such a successful one for Minnesota, a number of key-players spent time sidelined, like Byron Buxton, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Eddie Rosario and Miguel Sanó, to name a few. But due to the impossibility of predicting injuries, let’s talk about things that could go wrong productivity-wise – like in 2018. The Twins rotation looks stable, with the returns of Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, as well as with the signings of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey and the trade for Kenta Maeda. At the same time, most people logically consider it the potential Achilles heel of this group. That’s why we chose to focus on it in this article. Here are some things that could get in the way of starting pitching success for the Twins: José Berríos is definitely the Twins best starter. But last year he did show some signs for concern. Patrick Wozniak wrote about the problems he’s encountered as of late, including the decrease in his velocity and late-season struggles. Although Hill represents a potentially huge upside, especially for October baseball, there’s very little evidence that his health will not be an obstacle for that. By the time of his signing, a lot of people even wondered if he would be able to pitch at all, given his age and injury track record. Bailey has had a really rough last five and a half years in the majors. He’s dealt with several health issues, which ended up leading to to surgeries, including a Tommy John Surgery in 2015. Ever since, he’s never been the same good pitcher he was before 2013. In the four seasons before last year he had pitched 231 2/3 innings, with a 6.25 ERA and a 5.13 FIP. How he could represent an improvement over what the Twins got from Martín Pérez or Kyle Gibson last year is still uncertain. Maeda’s career splits between home and away games is considerable. His ERA as a starter goes from 3.16 pitching at Dodger Stadium to 4.70 away from it. He also displayed increases in his FIP (3.46 to 4.06) and OPS (.634 to .718) splits. Moving from the seventh most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball to the thirteenth in the same category (not to mention the colder weather) may cause him some trouble. I can’t stress this enough: I do not think most of these are happening. This is just a hypothetical worst-case scenario, just so people won’t be blindsided because of all the optimism generated by the good offseason, like I was in the beginning of 2018. Speaking of which, I ask the most important question: what is the difference between now and then? Is there an effective way the Twins could avoid that same outcome this year? In my opinion, yes. Should elements of this very unlikely catastrophe take place, the Twins this year have a much greater rotation depth than two years ago. Randy Dobnak is a prime candidate to have a good year, especially because of the early absences of both Pineda and Hill. Besides him, Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe and Sean Poppen are also in pursuit of their big break and have shown good signs last year. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Petriello put together very reasonable sources of doubt about Garver, three of which caught my attention: his lack of track record to earn him confidence, the fact that his 2019 numbers were well above what had come before, and his struggles against non-fastballs. So I raised some counterarguments for those points, to try to inject some optimism in favor of The Sauce. Does he really have no track record? If you consider Garver’s time as a major leaguer alone, that’s a fair point. Because he chose to attend college, his MLB debut came only at age 26. But that doesn’t mean that what he did the previous eight years is not relevant. A while back, I looked back at some Twins collegiate careers. In four years playing for the Lobos, Garver had outstanding numbers. He maintained a slash line of .351/.421/.527 (.948 OPS) in the four years he played for NCAA Division-I. He revolutionized the program, leading it to its best seasons in history and earned national recognition, being named a Johnny Bench Award finalist (a prize now known as the Buster Posey Award) two times. That’s why his breakout 2019 didn’t come as a surprise for his college coach Ray Birmingham, as he told Twins Daily last year. As Petriello points out, he also earned some recognition for his minor league career, being named the Twins Minor League Player of the Year in 2017. In 110 games at Triple-A, good for 456 plate appearances, he slashed .298/.386/.520 (.906 OPS). Even though he was never considered a top prospect during his years in the minors, he did have a very solid time there. So 2019 shouldn’t have come as much as a surprise. Did his breakout really start only in 2019? In his article, Petriello chose to separate Garver’s MLB career into 2019 and 2017-18. But did his rise really only start in 2019? Actually, in spite of his overall 2018 stats showing a rather average performance, his breakout started in the middle of that season. From June 1, 2018 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 156 games (592 PA), hitting .278/.359/.555 (.914 OPS), with a 139 wRC+ and .380 wOBA. Oh, and he also hit 36 bombas. Those are some much more reliable numbers to back up his breakout. During that time, he shared a lot of his PA’s with two or three other catchers, so it will be fun to see him finally being the Alpha of the Twins’ catching position. How did other hitters perform at the same point of their careers? Maybe the greatest mystery for Garver in 2020 is whether his struggles against non-fastballs are going to hurt him or not. So, I tried to investigate other hitters that had similar problems after three seasons in the majors and if that affected their following seasons or not. Mitch Garver Bryce Harper Aaron Judge J.T. Realmuto Two proven power hitters, who had very similar gaps between their fastball numbers and at least one other type of pitch. Such difficulties didn’t stop them from becoming two of the most feared bats in baseball. Both of them still display this difference nowadays, so I think it isn’t a big reason to worry. Considered by many the best catcher in baseball, Realmuto also showed an even larger lack of balance in his first two years in the majors, but he managed to even things out in his third year. Given the amount of hard work Garver put into becoming a better catcher defensively, I don’t think it’s impossible that he becomes a better non-fastball hitter, like Realmuto did. But the bottom line is: he’s still going to see more fastballs than offspeed or breaking stuff. My guess is that he’s going to be fine either way. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

This year’s main projections do not show Buxton much love. PECOTA projects him for a batting line of .230/.288/.436 (.724 OPS), 19 home runs, 63 RBI, 33 BB, 135 strikeouts. Fangraphs and Baseball Reference aren’t expecting much of an improvement this year either. But last season, though cut short by injuries, provided us with a lot of optimism. Buxton had, by far, his best offensive performance in 2019. He slashed .262/.314/.513 (.827 OPS), with a career high 34 extra-base hits in only 87 games. Even though he didn’t play a full season, he was still worth a decent amount of Wins Above Replacement, according to the three main websites that measure it: 2.7 fWAR, 2.9 WARP and 3.1 bWAR. But his offensive improvement is not superficial. He’s also improved his power, plate discipline and quality of hit balls. According to Baseball Prospectus metrics, he swung the bat more than in any other year of his career, with a 53.3% swing rate, but that increase came with quality too. He had career bests at contact rate (71%) and zone contact rate (81.5%). Per Baseball Savant, he also had his best year in a number of offensive metrics, such as wOBA (.340), exit velocity (89.3 mph), launch angle (19.5º), hard hit rate (38.7%) and barrel rate (8.3%). All of this resulted in much better hit balls, dropping his ground ball rate almost 15% in 2019 (29.6%), in comparison to his previous career average (44.1%). Along with the increased power, he’s also become more aggressive, as he’s had a career high 37.6% first-pitch swing rate. Contrary to what one might think, that didn’t do any damage to his plate discipline, as he had the lowest swinging strike rate (28.9%) and strikeout rate (23.1%) of his career. All of those numbers point to a significant improvement in comparison to 2017, his best year in the majors to date. Thus far, because of his superstar defense, considered by many the best in the majors among outfielders, and his clear offensive improvement since 2017, the greatest obstacle between Buxton and all-star status is his health. So, we must ask: can he remain healthy all year? I asked Twins Daily contributor Dr. Lucas Seehafer to talk a little bit about Buxton’s health and here’s what he has to say: NOTE: I’d like to thank Twins Daily’s contributors Dr. Seehafer and Matthew Trueblood for assisting me with this article. Your help has been invaluable. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Last week, Matt Braun showed us how good the Indians still are. Alongside Cleveland, Chicago was the only other AL Central team to win a series against Minnesota (they won two) in 2019, on their way to a 72-89 record. Have they become somewhat of a threat for the Twins and the Indians in the race for the division crown? Some of their fans sure think so. To help the rotation, Chicago signed veteran lefties Gio González and Dallas Keuchel. In part, this was likely done to help mentor their rising star Lucas Giolito and probably to also mentor their other young starting pitchers, Reynaldo López, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech. While González and Keuchel are still good pitchers and might very well push them closer to a wild card spot, they might not have been the best choice to help dethrone the Twins. Minnesota punished left-handed pitching all year long, ranking first in AVG (.285), SLG (.521) and OPS (.872) and second in wOBA (.361) and wRC+ (126). Also, no team hit more home runs (95) nor had a lower ground ball rate (39.4%) against them. It’s hard to imagine that a nearly unchanged lineup will suddenly have a different outcome. Gonzalez turns 35 in September and last year he spent a considerable amount of time dealing with injuries, which cut his season short. He logged only 87 1/3 innings in 17 starts and while his ERA and most of his peripherals improved in comparison to 2018, they were still worse than his career averages (except for his ERA). He started two games against Minnesota last year and he couldn’t pitch past the fifth inning in either. He combined for 8 1/3 innings, allowing four home runs and nine earned runs, leading to a 9.72 ERA. Keuchel just turned 32 and seems to be in better shape, but his track record against current Twins hitters isn’t brilliant. His slash line against them, according to ESPN, is .287/.357/.485 (.842). That includes the earlier years of the careers of Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton and Eddie Rosario, who matured considerably since last facing him. But that’s not even the worst part. As Twins Daily’s own Ted Schwerzler pointed out on his Twitter account, the White Sox infield defense may cause Keuchel and his 60.1% ground ball rate a lot of problems. https://twitter.com/tlschwerz/status/1223784145639432194 With the departure of their Gold Glove-winning second baseman Yolmer Sánchez to the Giants, things look even worse on that front. He was, by far, their best infield defender, being worth 11 DRS in 2019. Newly acquired designated hitter Edwin Encarnación, who can play first base when needed, also has a below average defense at first, being worth -1 DRS in 2019. Their outfield was the fourth worst in the majors in DRS (defensive runs saved), with -39. Their only addition there was Nomar Mazara, who came to Chicago in a trade with the Rangers. But he doesn’t represent a great improvement on defense, as he was worth -4 DRS in the outfield last year. So Keuchel and his 4.72 FIP in 2019 might encounter troubles along the way, especially against the Twins. Offensively, the White Sox surely improved their lineup considerably. They solved their DH issue by bringing Encarnación and also did a great job by replacing Ryan Cordell with Nomar Mazara in the right field. All-Star catcher Yasmani Grandal will not only be an enormous help to the pitching staff, but also a great fit for their lineup. The already good core of Yoan Moncada, Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez and veteran Jose Abreu now looks stronger. However, I believe this lineup still doesn’t have what it takes to top the Twins’ pitching staff on a regular basis. Besides, even if they do, there’s a great chance Minnesota’s lineup will out-slug their pitching staff even more often. The White Sox are in great position to have their first winning season in ten years. Perhaps even reach the playoffs for the first time in 12 years. But it doesn’t look like 2020 is the year they’re going to outperform both Minnesota and Cleveland for the AL Central throne. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Is Garver’s improvement sustainable? Jason Castro’s tenure with the Twins is over, but more important than his contributions on the field were his two years as Mitch Garver’s defensive mentor. While he is still not an elite defensive catcher, his improvement was as clear as crystal, more specifically at the catcher-framing front. Per Baseball Prospectus, he was worth -8.2 framing runs in 2018, ranking 110th among 117 qualified catchers. In 2019, he improved that number to 4.2 framing runs, good for 28th among 113 catchers. Another angle is to look at Savant’s Runs From Extra Strike. Here’s how he improved in that metric, as well as in total strike rate. It seems as if he loves catching and he has put a lot of effort into becoming a better catcher. The big question for this year is whether he can permanently sustain that improvement he learned. If he does, put that together with new Twin Alex Avila’s good defense (+5 Runs From Extra Strike in 2019) and Minnesota will have a nice backstop combo. How is Sanó going to handle first base? Miguel Sanó has a very small sample playing at first base. Including his minor league career, he has a combined 223 innings playing there. But it’s safe to say that he’s had much more success at first then he’s had at third. While he was worth -5 DRS and -6.7 UZR in the hot corner in 2019, those numbers improve to -1 DRS and -0.1 UZR in nine games at first base. His fielding percentage at first (.956) was also much higher than at third (.926). It’s going to be very interesting to know how that works over a full season and also how he will develop through the years in his new role. Can Donaldson have another good year defensively? In 2019, Josh Donaldson was worth 15 DRS, the second most among all third basemen in the majors. Using Statcast’s new Outs Above Average (OAA) for infielders, we can also notice that he’s been the third best in the position at that metric, with 8, behind only Gold Glove Winners Nolan Arenado (17) and Matt Chapman (14). However, in the previous three seasons, probably because of a series of injuries, those numbers were considerably worse. Nonetheless, not once in that that span did his DRS go below 1, which is far better than anything Sanó has managed to do there defensively (his career DRS at third is -19). So, either way, he is much likely going to represent a considerable improvement. Will Rosario bounce back? Now here’s a tricky one. While Eddie Rosario had his worst season defensively in 2019, we can also see an unusual pattern for his career. His defensive performances over the years have been going up and down. Per Statcast’s OAA, he was MLB worst outfielder, with -17. But at the same time, before last year, his worst OAA result was -3 in 2017, which was still better than those of Mike Trout, George Springer and Bryce Harper, to name a few. In 2016, he was worth 4 OAA. He’s also been on a roller coaster when it comes to DRS in the outfield, as his career numbers stand thus: 2015: 11 2016: 2 2017: -10 2018: 5 2019: -8 So, which Rosario will be out on the field this year? Can Buxton stay healthy all year? Here we have the most important question. Byron Buxton became the Twins’ everyday center fielder in 2017 and he had an outstanding season, which earned him MVP votes. He led all outfielders in the majors with 26 OAA and was worth 24 DRS, ranking third-highest in the league. But since then, he simply couldn’t catch a break when it came to his health. After being on the field for 1,143 innings in 2017, he played for only 924 innings in the following two seasons combined. While it seems like he’s finally found his touch offensively (111 wRC+ and .827 OPS last year, both career best), he was missed even more in the field. In 2019, the Twins outfield was worth 12 DRS and Buxton was responsible for 10 of those, even though he was out on the field for only 692 innings. He can single-handedly raise the bar for Minnesota’s outfield. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

There aren’t many projections available at this time of year, so we can only speculate about which teams might get to July far from a playoff spot. However, MLB has already kicked things off with its first MLB Power Rankings of 2020 and we can have a tentative idea of what clubs may be sellers at the deadline. Here are my four picks from teams outside the top ten of these rankings. David Price (LHP) Upside: If you think the only thing missing in the Twins rotation is an ace that will lead them in October, Price might be the most interesting option. He has, by far, the largest playoff experience out of all the pitchers on my list, with 99 1/3 career postseason innings. In his last two October runs, he’s posted a 2.75 ERA, holding opposing batters to a .172 AVG. Because the Red Sox may be motivated to dump his contract and are suddenly facing a huge wall of uncertainty with the departure of Alex Cora, one might imagine they wouldn’t make things too difficult should the Twins reach them for this deal. Downside: He hasn’t been quite healthy since the start of the 2017 season, with an average of 119 innings per season in the past three years. If the Twins did acquire him, they would have to stick with him for two whole seasons past this year, so his health could be an issue. Besides, he is still owed a fortune. While this might reduce Boston’s asking for him, if they don’t eat up a considerable chunk of his remaining contract, maybe the Twins should back away. Mike Clevinger (RHP) Upside: Coming off the best year of his career (he was worth 4.5 WAR pitching only 126 innings), Clevinger should be a very attractive option, because of a number of reasons. He apparently just entered his prime, he just turned 28 and he’s under team control for two more years past this year. Downside: With such a long list of advantages, Clevinger will certainly not be cheap. The Indians probably will ask for a huge package in exchange, especially considering who they would be trading him to. Giving away top prospects is not very appealing and even less if they’re going to a division rival. Kyle Freeland (LHP) Upside: An injury-plagued 2019 made most people immediately forget about the arguably best starting pitcher from the Rockies. Freeland is one year removed from the best season by a pitcher in Rockies history, when he was worth 8.4 bWAR and came in fourth in the NL Cy Young race. He also has a very respectable track record in college and in the minors before 2019. If he can have a bounce back year, Freeland, who’s still only 26, could be a huge addition for any team now and in the long-term. In his only playoff game, .Downside: It’s still uncertain whether 2019 was just an abnormality in Freeland’s career or he just wasn’t as good as everybody thinks. Also, assuming he bounces back, the Rockies would not give him up cheap. Johnny Cueto (RHP) Upside: The veteran Cueto brings to the table enormous playoff experience, including a World Series title with the Royals. Before undergoing Tommy John Surgery in 2018, he was having a nice bounce back year, with an ERA of 3.23. Coming back from the surgery last year, he had only four starts, two good ones and two bad ones. If he pitches well in the first half of the season, it would make sense to bet him. The Giants would probably welcome anyone trying to get his huge salary of their payroll. Downside: His health is the biggest question mark, but, thankfully, Minnesota would have another six months to observe that. Even though I don’t think the Giants’ asking price would be that big, he is still owed $21 million for the 2021, which is a lot of money for 35-year old. Fortunately, 2022 has a club option, with a $5 million buyout. Let us know which other suggestions you have, by leaving a comment! MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

With the rather unaggressive approach Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have taken this offseason, it might as well be a part of a much greater long-term project. What if the alternative here is soon becoming as dominant over a long stretch as the Dodgers have been? There are undeniable similarities between what the current Twins front office has been doing in the past three years and what Dodgers’ President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman has done, both with the Rays between 2008-14, and with Los Angeles in the last five seasons. One thing that makes Friedman a good comparison for “Falvine” is that he managed to find success without using all the Dodgers’ big market money. Here are the three main pillars from Friedman’s system and similarities to the current Twins’ approach. Player development Last year, the Dodgers secured their seventh consecutive NL West title. They didn't do it by signing big free agents. No team in baseball has a more successful core built by homegrown players. Here’s a list of some of the current players either drafted and developed by the club or signed internationally: Cody Bellinger, Cleyton Kershaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenley Jansen, Corey Seager, Alex Verdugo, Walker Buehler and Julio Urias. At the same time, Los Angeles still has the third-best farm system in the league. They are constantly adding and properly developing talent. In the last postseason, the Dodgers had the highest number of homegrown talents, with 15 of their 25 players, worth 34.4 Wins Above Replacement, also the highest among the ten teams in the postseason. The second team on both of those categories are the Twins, with 13 homegrown players, worth 28.4 WAR (you can check the full list here). Trading for under the radar talent One other feature that Friedman has been bringing to the table for his teams is the ability to make very smart trades, supplying the farm. Here are some examples: In 2012, while still with the Rays, he traded veterans Wade Davis and James Shields to Kansas City in exchange for prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. In 2018, the Dodgers sent veterans Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood and Kyle Farmer to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, Jeter Downs, and Josiah Gray. While Bailey was immediately released, Gray and Downs are currently the club's #4 and #5 prospects. Nate Palmer wrote a great article revisiting the great deals Minnesota made in 2018, which are just a few examples of how smart the Twins have been when making trades under this current regime. A lot of those prospects still need to materialize, but the Twins can either develop those players or use them as valuable trade pieces — like the Dodgers constantly do at the trade deadline. Finding good deals in free agency and waivers This last one may not be the best comparison now, since signing big free agents is not nearly a problem for the Dodgers. But while still in Tampa and with very limited money, Friedman managed to pick up some nice bargains at free agency, like Casey Kotchman in 2011, Jeff Keppinger and Fernando Rodney in 2012, and James Loney in 2013, all of who were one-year deals worth $2 million or less. Falvey and Levine have done the same in Minnesota. While there haven't been big splashes yet, they have landed great, team-friendly deals. Most noticeably, Nelson Cruz, Michael Pineda and Sergio Romo, which proved very successful. Even though the 2018 season didn’t pan out very well, they also had a very productive offseason, signing Lance Lynn, Logan Morrison, Fernando Rodney, Zach Duke and Addison Reed. Those players had good track records and were very sensible signings at the time. Recently, Matthew Taylor showed us how dangerous it can be to bet your future to seek a World Series title, using the Kansas City Royals example. Perhaps signing Rich Hill and Homer Bailey to one-year deals will not put the Twins closer to a ring this year, but I’m fine with that if it will bring the Twins closer to a dominance similar to the one the Dodgers have in the west. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Whereas prospects would be the main part of any deal, the Twins should have a list of MLB talent that they would be willing to include in trade packages. Here’s my rank of current Twins who could be negotiated. 1) Eddie Rosario Despite being loved by a large part of the fanbase, there’s no denying Rosie is the Twins’ top trade asset. Even though I can see a big upside to keeping him, many fans were annoyed with the worsening of his defense and plate discipline last year. Plenty of teams are still in pursuit of a corner outfielder and some of them could provide the Twins with acceptable starting pitching help, like Arizona and Detroit. Immediate replacement: Jake Cave has taken advantage of every opportunity he’s had in the majors so far. It makes a lot of sense to give him the everyday job out on the field. Potential suitors: Diamondbacks, Tigers, Mets, Cardinals, Reds, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals 2) Miguel Sanó Here’s a move that wouldn’t make a lot of Twins fans happy. Just this week I ran a poll on Twitter and nearly eight out of ten people opposed trading Miggy Smalls. I wouldn’t love to see him getting traded either, but he could generate a huge return. Teams in need of both, first or third basemen (or a designated hitter), could really benefit from acquiring him. Sure, it would be painful to watch him leave, but depending on who the Twins get in exchange, it might be be worth it. Aaron Gleeman and John Bonnes discussed that possibility on their last podcast. Immediate replacement: Again, it’s hard to imagine this scenario without knowing if Donaldson will accept the Twins’s offer, but Gonzalez is definitely the next in line to be the everyday third baseman. Potential suitors: Rays, Nationals, Braves, Rangers, Brewers, Tigers, Rockies (if they actually trade Nolan Arenado) 3) Jake Cave Exactly like Rosario, Cave could easily cater for a lot of teams' needs in the outfield. Perhaps he wouldn’t generate the same type of return as Rosie would, but put him alongside a couple of decent prospects in the package and you have yourself a pretty good case. Make them say no. Immediate replacement: Right now, LaMonte Wade Jr. should be your first choice to become the fourth outfielder, should Cave be traded. But down in the minors the Twins could also turn to Brent Rooker, Luke Raley or even Alex Kirilloff. Marwin Gonzalez can do some work there too. Potential suitors: Diamondbacks, Tigers, Mets, Cardinals, Reds, Padres, Blue Jays, Royals 4) Lewis Thorpe Just like Cave, Thorpe probably wouldn’t provide the Twins with the best of returns by himself. If he actually gets dealt, he should be one of the pieces along with a handful of prospects. With a very successful minor league career and already in the majors, Thorpe becomes a very interesting option for teams in need of both rotation or bullpen help. Last week I discussed how he could help the Twins themselves in 2020. It’s a very long shot, but if the Rockies are serious about trading Arenado, Thorpe could be a great part of that package. Immediate replacement: Since he’s still not an established member of the Twins rotation, the Twins won’t need to think too much about how to replace him. Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, Cody Stashak and Sean Poppen are all ready for stepping up, should he be traded. Potential suitors: Rockies, Marlins, Cubs, Blue Jays, Angels, Athletics, Astros 5) Willians Astudillo When the Twins signed Alex Avila, they made it clear that “La Tortuga” wouldn’t be Mitch Garver’s substitute. If there’s absolutely zero chance of Garver being moved to first, there’s not much of a point in keeping Astudillo around. Sure, he can put out fires basically in any position, but if you can get a decent package involving him, you shouldn’t say no. At least a couple of teams are in search of a substitute backstop. Astudillo has, at times, played very well in the past, which could indicate he can contribute effectively to a major league team. Immediate replacement: on the field, not needed. In our hearts, non-existent. Potential suitors: Rockies, Pirates MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

Working out trades is still very much on the table, too. But maybe some of the prospects to be involved in them could, instead, effectively fill some of those gaps now. Not giving up much of the organization’s long-term future could be useful in a division full of teams that are investing hard on what lies ahead of them. First, we should point out the current obstacles the Twins have to become more than a great regular season ball club. I narrowed it down to two major areas, if you will, namely starting pitching and infield defense and gaps. Are there good enough options already in the organization? Starting pitching After bringing back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, two of the most dependable pitchers in the league this year, Minnesota still has two spots to fill. The free agency path hasn’t been taken yet, as multiple targets have signed somewhere else. Hyun-jin Ryu is still available and the Twins are reportedly in on him. There are also plenty of trade targets to be explored, but the Twins have at least one arm that could step up right now. Lewis Thorpe was among the most dominant pitchers in Triple-A last season. Among the 73 pitchers who logged 90 or more innings in Triple-A last season, Thorpe had the highest K/9 (11.12), swinging strike rate (14.5) and was second in K% (29.5). His first stint in the majors wasn’t exactly brilliant overall, but he did display some very exciting stuff, like his 1.95 FIP and 4.50 K/BB as a reliever. His pitch arsenal needs to be worked at, but he’s already got a Sergio Romo-esque slider, which resulted in a .199 WOBA and 44.6% Whiff%, both better than Romo’s slider itself. He’s bounced back very well from his Tommy John surgery (2015), logging 336 innings (including MLB) since coming back, in 2017, while posting a 3.91 ERA. Besides, throughout his minor league career, Thorpe has always shown a much-needed feature for this current Twins roster: he can be a serious threat to right-handed batters. If you think of how Wes Johson was able to transform 28-year-old Martín Pérez, however briefly, into a great pitcher during the first half of the season, it becomes fun to imagine what he can shape this 24 year old Ausie lefty into in the near future. Infield Rumors of a possible Josh Donaldson signing with the Twins heated up these past days. Reportedly, Minnesota is willing to offer him a four-year deal, which would be concluded at his age 37 season and would very likely hit the nine-figure price. Worthy or risky? Your call. The fact is that the competition is fierce and the Braves were seemingly given the benefit of having the final offer. So, what if the former MVP doesn’t land in the Twin Cities? A couple of options come to mind. Brent Rooker got off to a slow start in Triple-A, but ended up hitting .319/.463/.572 (1.036 OPS) over his final 41 games/177 plate appearances with Rochester. In his three seasons since being drafted out of Mississippi State in 2017, Rooker has never had a wRC+ lower than 124. Even though he’s spent his whole 2019 playing as an outfielder, he spent his 2018 playing slightly more first base. He could fill in nicely there for the Twins, especially after the official departure of C.J. Cron to the Tigers this morning. But that wouldn’t solve Minnesota’s biggest issue on the infield, which is the weak defense in the left side. While having a great season offensively, Miguel Sanó was worth -5 DRS and -6.7 UZR playing at the hot corner. Jorge Polanco, despite showing some clear signs of improvement on defense, was worth only 1 DRS and -9.1 UZR. If ultimately Sanó’s presence on third is untenable, there’s a possible solution that could be experimented. Nick Gordon was once one of the club’s most prestigious prospects. But since having a terrible start at Triple-A in 2018, when he slashed .212/.262/.283 (.544 OPS), he’s been somewhat forgotten by a number of fans. He had a tremendous bounce back year in 2019, batting .298/.342/.459 (.801 OPS) in 70 games for Rochester. He’s played only one game at third base his entire career, but calling him up could give Rocco Baldelli a lot of options, like moving Polanco to second and Luis Arráez to third, where he had his best defensive metrics this year, with 7.8 Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF) in 130 innings. Should none of the above be the way to go, Baldelli could make utility player Marwin Gonzalez the everyday third baseman and benefit from his stellar defense at the position (4 DRS, 2.6 UZR, 18.9 DEF). MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Latest Twins coverage from our writers — Recent Twins discussion in our forums — Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email

It’s not the end of the world to consider trading him at this point. Especially because his trade value should be pretty high right now. Afterall, regardless of how disappointing it might have ended, wasn’t a bad season at all. So, it makes a lot of sense to deal him in exchange for quality pitching. But it’s a tough pill to swallow when people try to justify this deal by saying that Rose is “washed”. He isn’t. Perhaps the main reason people’s impression of Rosario was mostly negative after this season was the below average second half that he had. After slashing .282/.312/.529 (.841) and hitting 20 HR before the All-Star break, he slowed down in the second half, hitting .268/.286/.465 (.750) and 12 HR. Overall, the 2019 season was his worst season putting the ball in play, as he had his career-low BABIP, with .273. He also chased too many out of the zone pitches, with his O-Swing% reaching a career high 46.3%. His ability to draw walks, which was never very good, seemed to regress this year (3.7 BB%), as it dropped way below his career average (4.4 BB%). But that simply isn’t enough to establish Rosario as a bad hitter nor to say that he can’t contribute to the Twins success in the foreseeable future. For instance, despite regressing in the aforementioned aspects, he also showed a lot of improvement this year — maybe even more than regression. For instance, his 38.8 hard-hit rate was a career high, which undoubtedly helped him achieve career highs in HR (32) and RBI (109). His weak-contact rate was just 1.9%, a career best. Also, both his barrel (8.5%) and solid-contact (7.1%) rates were comfortably above the MLB averages. His .330 xWOBA in 2019 was both better than league average (.319) and much better than his overall career mark in that stat (.307). Another fun fact: Despite swinging at pitches outside the zone in an alarming rate this year, he did manage to strikeout the least times in his entire career. His 14.6% strikeout rate was the third best among all left fielders in the league and 13th in the entire AL. He struck out at a lower rate than Jose Altuve, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana and Mike Trout, to name a few. If the chase of pitches outside of the zone is what bothers you about him, here’s a list of players who also had a O-Swing% of 40 percent or more: Javier Báez, Eduardo Escobar, Rafael Devers and Nicholas Castellanos. Rosario had better contact (80.3%) and SwStr% (11.7) than every single one of them. On the other hand, Rosario had the worst year of his career defensively. Per Fangraphs, he had -6 DRS, -5.7 UZR and -11.1 DEF, which, among 24 left fielders with at least 500 innings on the field, rank 19th, 21st and 21st respectively. That’s terrible. But is it enough proof that he can’t be a good fielder anymore? Hardly. Since being called up in 2015, Rosario ranks second among left fielders with 37 assists and the fourth in putouts (893). He also ranks seventh in UZR (10.6) out of 22 left fielders with at least 2,000 innings. He isn’t nearly a great defender, but very few players at that position are. Only three had a positive Defensive Runs Above Average in the last five years. So I barely think we have reason to worry here. There’s enough reason to believe Rosario can bounce back. There’s also a lot of justifiable reasons to want to trade him this winter. But saying he’s damaged goods definitely isn’t one of them. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — Bumgarner V. Wheeler: Who Should the Twins Pursue? — Stealing Bases Isn’t Minnesota Nice – Will That Change? — Let's Find a Role for Devin Smeltzer in 2020

The young Venezuelan, who was the organization’s No. 3 prospect last year, made his much-anticipated MLB debut as a September callup. Including the postseason, he appeared in 11 MLB games, posting a 4.22 ERA out of the bullpen. He has electric stuff, and if it wasn’t for one bad outing against Cleveland, he would have had a 1.68 ERA in his first month as a major leaguer. Giving Graterol a rotation spot early would be a real shot in the dark, but it could definitely work out. One example that in particular stands out in particular is Mike Soroka of the Braves. Soroka made his MLB debut in 2018, also at age 21. He was the team's top prospect at the time. He went through Atlanta’s minor league system quickly, also taking advantage of his Canadian National Team experience. Along with their age and pedigrees, Graterol and Soroka's minor league performances are comparable. Soroka posted an ERA of 2.84, held opposing batters to a .605 OPS and averaged 8.04 K/9 in the minors. Graterol had a 2.48 ERA, held opponents to a .574 OPS and averaged 9.67 K/9. The biggest difference would be that Soroka (370 2/3) pitched a lot more innings down on the farm than Graterol (214) has. Just like Graterol, Soroka pitched very little in his first major league callup. Soroka started five games for Atlanta between two separate stints, posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He then went on to deliver an out-of-this-world 2019 season for the Braves, becoming one of the front-runners for the Rookie of the Year award. He pitched 174 2/3 innings this season, was worth 4.0 fWAR and had a 2.68 ERA. Between Double A and Triple A, Graterol pitched less than 60 innings this year. His shift to the bullpen was part of that limited innings count, but so was a shoulder injury. Odd coincidence: Soroka only 30 2/3 innings in the minors in 2018 and was also sidelined because of shoulder inflammation. These two kids are similar even when you check their pitch arsenal. According to Baseball Savant, Soroka relies on four pitches: sinker (44.6%), slider (24.3%), four seamer (18.7%) and changeup (12.4%). Those are the very same four pitches that Graterol uses, in a very similar ratio: sinker (49.3%), slider (30.6%), four seamer (18.1%) and changeup (2.1%). The key-differences are that Graterol has much greater velocity (99.0 mph on his sinker, against 92.3 mph from Soroka) and Soroka adds much more movement to his pitches (2,372 spin rate average on his pitches, against 2,045 from Graterol). For more details on Soroka’s mechanics, you can check this out. There’s very little to ensure that Graterol will have the same outcome as Soroka did, but it seems foolish to rule out the possibility that he can’t be effective in the Twins rotation immediately. Please share your thoughts in the comments below. Not registered? Click here to create an account. To stay up to date, follow Twins Daily on Twitter and Facebook. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY — The Trend-Setting Twins — A Case for Signing Yasmani Grandal — What Makes Luis Arraez so Good and How Can He Repeat His Excellence in 2020?