Thiéres Rabelo

First, we have to look at the Twins and figure out what are their needs and what they can do about it. At this moment, ten pitchers and ten position players (provided Byron Buxton is healthy) are considered by most as locks for the postseason. Those 20 players don't include the players below, so when the time comes for the Twins to set a final playoff roster, some very productive position players could not be included. Do you leave off Luis Arráez, Jonathan Schoop or Ehire Adrianza? To me that’s the toughest and potentially most dangerous problem to solve. Luis Arráez leads all AL rookies in batting average (.335) and is at the top five in fWAR (1.4), WPA (1.34), OPS (.836) and wRC+ (123). How can you realistically not want this guy in the playoffs? The problem is that you don’t have other very clear options. One could argue that Jonathan Schoop has a considerably lower offensive production than him, with .254 AVG, 0.9 fWAR, -1.19 WPA (dead last on the team), .769 OPS and 97 wRC+. Or that, statistically, his defense isn’t much better than that of Arráez, since the rookie has better UZR and DEF, while Schoop has produced only one DRS more than him. But that’s not even the main point here. Schoop was the clear starting second baseman acquisition in the offseason. He’s being paid good money to do so. Usually, that would mean there’s virtually zero chance he’s not part of a playoff roster. Schoop is a vital part of the “Bomba Squad” spirit. With 18 home runs on the year, he’s very likely to become the seventh or eighth Twin with 20 dingers this season. Other than the Bombas, experience counts a lot during playoffs and Schoop can provide that. Adrianza becomes the second realistic option to be excluded, which would be a huge bummer. Not because I think he’s an Eduardo Escobar-type bench player. He’s not. But he is so hard-working, so patient and has made such a good contribution to this organization in the past three years that it would be heartbreaking to see him out of the playoff roster. He did make the cut for the 2017 Wild Card team, but still, there’s no guarantee that he will be included this time. He’s also producing at the highest he’s ever produced in a Twin uniform. This season he is slashing .287/.371/.431 (.802), with a 112 wRC+. He also represents a statistically better defender than Schoop, for example, when he played second base. But the latter still holds the same upper-hand mentioned in the last paragraph. And you’re definitely not leaving out Marwin Gonzalez to include Adrianza. So tell us, reader, what would you do here in this infield puzzle? But before you make a decision here, let me say that in the next paragraph you may find a solution, if you feel like all three deserve to make the roster. But it’s not any easier. Do you leave off Jake Cave and use Gonzalez as the fourth outfielder? When Buxton is back, the Twins will have four primary outfielders, with Jake Cave being on the bench. Now, if the Twins want, they can keep extra infielder by deploying Gonzalez as their fourth outfielder, when necessary. The question here is: do you exclude Cave on their behalf? Cave has already done a pretty good job when he was called to fill in for Buxton lass season. But this year? Hoo, boy. Fine, his overall numbers in 2019 are not extremely better than 2018, but he's currently having an out-of-the-earth month of August. Since being recalled on Aug. 3, he’s slashing .442/.500/.767 (1.267) with a 232 wRC+ and a .696 BABIP. He leads the Twins in all those metrics this month, except SLG, OPS and wRC+, losing to Nelson Cruz in them by very little. So, what would you do here? As much as we might like Adrianza and as well as Arráez might be playing offensively, how can you turn your back on this? Granted, Cave’s numbers could very well come down to earth after a whole month of September, which would make this decision much easier. If they don’t, what a tough decision to make. However, let’s not forget that when we talk about Cave, we’re talking about a much smaller sample size. So far, he’s got only 148 plate appearances, against 205 from Adrianza and 249 from Arráez. What do you do with Willians Astudillo? Since coming back from his oblique strain injury, “La Tortuga” is slashing .368/.368/.421 (.789) in four Triple-A games and .353/.421/.765 (1.186) in five Double-A games, striking out only once overall. If he comes back and maintain that level, do you have a spot for him on your postseason roster? Over who? Personally, I can’t see it happening and I can’t see anyone I would choose him over. But you never know what’s going to happen. Which pitchers make the postseason staff? Assuming that all the position players questions are answered when October comes. There are 10 pitchers who are considered locked in for a playoff spot: José Berríos, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson as starters. Martín Pérez, Tyler Duffey, Trevor May, Sam Dyson, Sergio Romo and Taylor Rogers as relievers. You need to add two or three more. Who do you have? Here are four names. 1. Zack Littell What a great job this kid has been doing this year. He had one bad outing in late May, in which he gave up eight of his ten earned runs in the year. So, if you removed that one outing, you find out that he would have a 0.87 ERA the whole year. Granted, he’s pitched only 25 innings this season, but that’s still impressive. Since June 18, when he got called up for the second time, he’s posting a 0.96 ERA, which is good for the fifth best in baseball. I was honestly very confused when he was the chosen one to be optioned last week. Can he handle high leverage situations in the postseason? I wouldn’t want to test that -- although in the very few moments (three and one third innings) he’s been put under pressure, he hasn’t allowed a single run and has held opposing batters to a ridiculous .091/.167/.091 slash line. 2. Trevor Hildenberger Hildy had an amazing start to the year, followed by a horrendous month of May, which resulted in him being sent down. Then, he started dealing with injuries and was sidelined for nearly two months. Now, he’s back and, apparently, he’s back to his old self. Before the start of May, Hildenberger was one of the team’s best relievers, posting a 1.92 ERA. Now, since coming back from injury, he’s pitched five games (seven innings) and is posting a 1.28 ERA, while striking out nine batters per nine and with a 7.03 K/BB ratio. He’s had some serious ups and downs in his short major league career, which can make us a bit suspicious, but he’s definitely earned the right to be looked at in September. 3. Devin Smeltzer Smeltzer didn’t shy away when he got his chance. He impressed everyone when he shutout the Yankees for five innings of relief in late July, so you can tell the kid is ready for the big stage. As a reliever this year, he has a 3.38 ERA for the Twins. In medium or high leverage situations, that goes down to 3.09. But that’s not even his spot. Along with Pérez, he could be the best option if a starter can’t get deep into a game and you need a long man. Besides, you absolutely need another lefty over there. 4. Brusdar Graterol The organization’s top pitching prospect doesn’t even need introductions. You can read a more in depth analysis of him in two of our latest articles, one by Jeremy Nygaard here and one by Andrew Thares here, as well as our daily Minor League reports. He’s pitched 59 innings in three different minor league levels this year and is holding opponent batters to a .180 AVG, striking out 8.84 times per nine. His ERA this year is 1.53 overall and 0.00 in 8 1/3 innings of relief. It would be a longshot if he actually made the playoff team after a callup in September. But, who knows? Other callups that are going to be looked at during September and maybe could earn a spot include Ryne Harper, Jorge Alcala, Randy Dobnak, Fernando Romero and Kohl Stewart. Harper was a regular on the Twins bullpen all year, but got out of track lately. He should get another chance, because he’s shown good stuff before. So who is on your final roster?

Box Score Berríos: 5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 70.9% strikes (66 of 93 pitches) Bullpen: 3.2 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Sanó, 2 (25), Cave, 2 (4) Multi-Hit Games: Sanó (2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI), Cave (2-for-2, 2 HR, 2 RBI, BB), Castro (2-for-4) Top 3 WPA: Cave .134, Sanó .106, May .042 Bottom 3 WPA: Berríos -.357, Kepler -.122, Romo -.101 The Twins missed out on a great opportunity. They were facing the league’s least productive offense and somehow they were out-hit 17 to 9. The Tigers are also the seventh worst pitching staff in baseball in total strikeouts, but they managed to strike out Twins batters 14 times, including 11 for the starter Drew VerHagen. With the loss and the Cleveland win, the Twins lead atop of the Central now shrinks to two and a half games. All Eyes on La Makina Everybody is still looking for answers as to why José Berríos (La Makina, "The Machine") is having such an abysmal month of August. Earlier this week Ted Schwerzler put together a list of some weird numbers from his season, to help us investigate. The fact is, the version of Berríos we have witnessed in his previous three starts of the month just wasn't the real him. Tonight, he had the chance to shake off the worst month of his career since his rookie season. However, things didn’t start as smoothly as one would think they would against the team with the worst record in baseball. In the first two innings of action, he gave up three hits and walked former Twin Niko Goodrum. He managed to strand all runners, though. In support of their ace, the bats started working early. They manufactured the game’s first run in the first, after a single by Jorge Polanco (Chulo, “Pretty Boy”), followed by a Nelson Cruz (Boomstick) double, which was absolutely crushed: the ball left his bat at 115.1 mph--only his fifth hardest-hit ball of the season. On the second pitch of the home half of the second, the ball was smoked again. Miguel Sanó (Boquetón, “Large Mouth”) clobbered a hanging slider from VerHagen, good for 109.9 mph. That was his 24th of the season. https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1165063800560578560 Stay hot, Caveman! While Berríos stabilized a bit, allowing only a couple of runners to reach in the following three innings, he got some more run support. Since being called up for the fourth time this year, to replace an injured Byron Buxton, Jake Cave (Caveman) is making the most of it. This month, he’s the only Twin not named Nelson Cruz to be hitting above .400. Before this game, he was averaging .405 since August 3, when he got called up. He crushed his third dinger of the year in the fifth, to make it 3-0 Twins. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1165076666244304897 Cave would also make his presence felt on defense later in the game, when he robbed Miguel Cabrera of an RBI-extra base hit in the eighth, with a beautiful leaping grab near the warning track. ‘August Berríos’ strikes again Five shutout innings, which weren’t brilliant, of course, and we all thought José was finally getting rid of the funk. We were wrong. Three straight hits to open the sixth put Detroit on the board. After Berríos gave up a one-out walk that loaded the bases, Ronny Rodriguez made him pay, hitting a grand slam to give the Tigers their first lead of the night, 5-3. With that home run, Berríos has now allowed 20 earned runs this August, which is already the second most he’s allowed in any month of his career. The only time he’s given up more than that, 21, was in (surprise, surprise) August 2016. It’s not time to jump to any conclusions, but if Wes Johnson and the coaching staff don’t figure out in the next few weeks what’s wrong with Berríos, this version of him is bound to be crushed in October. Bullpen can’t stop the bleeding either Detroit never actually stopped hitting and scoring. Tyler Duffey (The Doof) and Trevor May (IAMTREVORMAY) managed to keep the game within reach after taking over from Berríos in the sixth and the seventh. But the same thing didn’t happen in the final two innings. Sergio Romo (El Mechón, “The Frosted Tips” or “The Padlock”) and Ryne Harper (Harp) allowed three hits and two earned runs each. Harper’s outing was even more harmful to the Twins, because Miguel Sanó hit a two-run homer in the bottom of the eighth, making it a two-run game, 7-5. But Detroit responded immediately and made it a four-run game in the ninth. Just like Sanó, Cave also went on to record his first multi-HR game of the season, hitting a solo shot in the bottom of the ninth. With the four homers, the Twins now have 248 on the year, 20 short of the MLB record. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

Dear future Rocco, Twins Territory is grateful and maybe surprised by how good our team has been with you behind the wheel. We thank you for such a fun season, for putting together, alongside your coaching staff, the best offense in baseball and maybe one of the best of all time. So many smiles after each record-breaking Bomba are priceless. At this point, we’re really hoping you can pull an Alex Cora-type rookie season as a manager. Some of us have believed that for awhile now. But even if that doesn’t happen, it’s OK. This young core is here for the long haul and we’re looking forward to the next decade as Twins fans. In the past couple of months, though, the Twins have slowed down a lot, at some points struggling to remain above .500 since the first week of June. At the same time, Cleveland has reached the Twins, coming back from an eleven and a half game deficit, which made things even more bitter. So, every mistake has been blown out of proportion, whether that’s fair or not. So here’s a short list of obstacles you could work on avoiding in the years to come. Fix the infield defense As of late, the Twins fielding hasn’t been the best. As a team, they’ve committed 86 errors, the sixth-most in MLB. Among those, 43 were throwing errors, which is the fourth-highest in baseball. Earlier this week Twins Daily’s Parker Hageman tweeted an ugly fact about Minnesota’s infielders: https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1161825462890504192 Basically, all the Twins everyday infielders can be held accountable for that. Jonathan Schoop is tied for most errors in the league among second basemen with 12. Jorge Polanco is tied at third among shortstops with 15 errors. Miguel Sanó is tied for sixth among third basemen with 12. Even C.J. Cron, who has had some very good defensive plays throughout the year, makes this list. He is the fourth among first basemen with nine. Overall, the Twins defense isn’t one of the league’s worst. For instance, they rank 10th in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), according to FanGraphs, with 24. But that’s mostly because of their outfield. FanGraphs briefly breaks down how they calculate DRS here and when you look at the fielding calculations, you find that it uses rARM (Outfield Arms Runs Saved). The Twins outfielders are responsible for 11 (highest in baseball!) of those 24 runs saved. In other words, the infield defense has been bringing the defensive numbers down. You were able to put together such a good team of coaches to help transform this team in such an exciting unit. We trust you to find professionals who will help fix this infield defense. Of course, there’s always the option of replacing a player here or there as well. But, I’m sure you’ll figure that out. Give the bullpen a rest The Twins bullpen has suffered a lot this season when relievers were used with no days of rest. It’s not that Minnesota is one of the teams who’s done that the most frequently (they’re only 14th in the league at 73 games). But, even so, they have one of the worst outcomes. When pitching in back-to-back days, Twins relievers have allowed the fourth-most runs in MLB, 50, and have the second-highest OPS against, with .926. That is simply unbelievable. Not even Taylor Rogers, Minnesota’s best reliever, escapes this pattern. After he gave up a grand slam against Cleveland last Sunday, Aaron Gleeman posted how much worse his numbers are when pitching with no rest: https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/1160928760255746048 Other pitchers who have suffered because of this include Ryne Harper and Tyler Duffey, as well as trade deadline acquisitions Sergio Romo and Sam Dyson. Since this is your first year with these players, you’re still getting to know them. It’s understandable. Maybe you and the front office should work next offseason on adding arms you trust as much as you trust Rogers. Maybe do something about the injuries Injuries have been one of the smallest problems for the Twins as a team this year, at least if compared to last year. And, let’s face it, what can a manager do to prevent them from happening? Very little, we assume. But, if there’s anything in your power to change the frequency with which they happen to this team, we ask you, please do it. Almost every position has suffered from the consequences of injuries this year. Position players who hit the IL include Willians Astudillo (67 days), Mitch Garver (19 days), Cron, Marwin Gonzalez, Ehire Adrianza (each one of them 11 days) and Eddie Rosario (19 days). Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda (11 days each) were sidelined starters and José Berríos has shown signs that possibly something is not quite right with him in the past few weeks. No injuries have had more impact than those to Byron Buxton and Nelson Cruz. They have both had multiple IL stints and are currently combined for 49 IL days on the year. Not only is that a very long time, but they are maybe the most impactful players on this team. When Nelly was sent down last week, he was raking, hitting home runs left and right. Thankfully, earlier this week it was reported that his injury wasn’t serious and that he would be back in action shortly. But, should we be worried for the future? Maybe he should seek a specific treatment for his wrist problems during the offseason. Buxton’s absence was felt even more. While the Twins have a 53-25 (.679) record when he’s on the field, they have a 21-23 (.477) without him. Although it’s very hard to prove, I can’t believe that’s a simple coincidence. A lot of people have been discussing for years now whether or not he should change his approach to the game, maybe being less aggressive when chasing after warning track fly balls. As a former outfielder, maybe you could guide him through those changes, if they’re really the way to go. Or maybe just better conditioning would do the trick. Something must be done to change the fact that injuries are becoming the greatest obstacle in Buxton’s career success. The Twins can’t afford to lose a player that maybe represents 20 percent more wins in a season multiple times a year. Like I wrote before, there’s maybe very little a manager can do about that, but we ask you, whatever is in your jurisdiction to do, please do it. We all hope these tips can help you maintain this team on the right track for years to come. Love, Twins fans.

Box Score Odorizzi: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 59.6% strikes (59 of 99 pitches) Bullpen: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Kepler (33), Schoop (17) Multi-Hit Games: Gonzalez (3-for-4), Adrianza (2-for-4) Top 3 WPA: Schoop .288, Romo .230, Rogers .155 Bottom 3 WPA: Cron -.115, Polanco -.113, Garver -.098 Cleveland dropped the second game of their series against the Yankees in New York, which brings the Twins lead to a game and a half atop of the AL Central. That’s the highest advantage the Twins have since Aug. 7, as they now own a 74-48 record, still the fourth best in baseball. Unlike the series opener, it took Minnesota a bit longer to get on the board. After throwing a 26-pitch, but scoreless, first inning, Mike Minor managed to keep the Twins scoreless until the fourth, but they took advantage of a Rougned Odor error, who dropped a Miguel Sanó routine pop-up. Right on the first pitch after that, Max Kepler homered to right field, to give Minnesota a two-run lead. Wunderboy keeps adding accomplishments to his career year. This was his 33rd home run of the season, which moved him closer to the single season record for a Twins outfielder, as informed by our Twins Daily own Ted Schwerzler. He also moved the Twins a bit closer to the all-time single season home run record. All with this bomb: https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1162533095498833920 Odorizzi continues to bounce back After the worst month of his career after his rookie season (7.43 ERA this July), Jake Odorizzi continues to show signs of recovery. He couldn’t hold on to the one-run lead he took into the sixth, but he was one out short of a quality start. After tonight, he is now posting a 2.07 ERA in three August starts and 1.95 if you count his last July start, against the Marlins. His improvement brings Twins fans a little more optimism for a playoff run, since he’s starting to look much more like the All-Star he was during the first half of the season--in a much needed time. Other than a rare wild pitch during the fourth inning (only his second as a Twin), he basically didn’t have big problems in his first five innings of the game, allowing the Rangers to score only one run on three hits. But Texas got to him during the sixth and made him pay after he allowed a leadoff double and a two-out walk. Nomar Mazara became the last batter he faced, as he hit a two-out double to deep center field, giving the home team its first lead in the series. But that wouldn’t last very long. The unlikely hero Batting only .217 in his previous 15 games coming into tonight and having hit his last homer in Jul. 28,, I guess it’s hard to say many people envisioned Jonathan Schoop being the one to push Minnesota toward the win. But that’s the magic with this year’s Twins. The Bombas simply won’t stop. He crushed a 2-2 changeup over the plate, following a Marwin Gonzalez single and the Twins retook the lead. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1162550418288893953 Other than hopefully providing Schoop’s season with a sparkle he’s been looking for in the past two months, that home run was the 238th for the Twins this year and they now need 30 to break the Yankees single-season record established last year. Minnesota is on pace to hit 316 this year. The bullpen takes care of business When Odorizzi gave up that lead-blowing double in the sixth, Tyler Duffey was called to put out the fire. He struck out Odor to end the inning and started a very efficient night for the Twins ‘pen. Sam Dyson recorded his third consecutive scoreless outing for Minnesota. He did get some help from the defense, which turned an inning- ending double play after he allowed two runners to reach. In his first appearance since giving up a tenth inning grand slam on Sunday, Taylor Rogers came into the game in the eighth and also held the Rangers scoreless. When most people thought he would come back to record another six-out save, Baldelli decided to bring in Sergio Romo and he also got the job done, earning his 20th save of the year. Hats off to Margo Despite the colder than usual night from the offense, Marwin Gonzalez simply refuses to cool down. After a four-hit night on Thursday, Margo led Minnesota with three hits on the night and he’s now batting .404 since the start of the Atlanta series. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

Box Score Smeltzer: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 60.4% strikes (49 of 81 pitches) Bullpen: 4.2 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Castro (12), Rosario (25) Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-for-4), Cave (2-for-4) Bottom 3 WPA: Smeltzer -.191, Arráez -.085, Cron -.063 For the fourth consecutive game, the Twins didn’t get a good outing from their starting pitcher. Since Jake Odorizzi allowed only one run on Monday against the Braves, Twins starters have allowed a total of 28 runs, two of them unearned. Devin Smeltzer was off to a very good start, but he couldn’t get past Cleveland’s top of the order in the fifth. Before the fifth inning meltdown, in which he gave up five earned runs on five hits, Smeltzer was able to hold Cleveland batters to just a one-run lead. With the exception of the second, he threw sixteen pitches or less in all other innings. He had also allowed only two hits before the fifth. Tyler Duffey took over, but couldn’t take care of the two inherited runners. The Indians, on the other hand, were able to lock their second win of the series behind a fantastic start from All-Star Game MVP Shane Bieber. Like Clevinger on Thursday, Bieber went into distance, nearly reaching 110 pitches. He delivered seven innings, striking out a total of eleven Minnesota batters. Twins set new single season home run record Exactly like in the previous three games, the Twins offense had to catch up and tried to start a rally. And they did it in record-breaking fashion. Jason Castro homered off Bieber to lead off the fifth, tying the club’s single season home run record, at 225. In the sixth, Eddie Rosario jumped on the first pitch of the inning to hit the milestone dinger, break the club record and put the Twins back in the game. It was Eddie’s 25th of the year. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1160010490409639938?s=19 Welcome to the show, Dobnak! A dream came true for former Uber driver Randy Dobnak tonight, as he made his major league debut. He couldn’t have asked for a better one too. The Pennsylvania native pitched four scoreless innings on 68 pitches, keeping the Twins within a swing of a bat. He did get a huge help from the defense too, when C.J. Cron threw home to get Yasiel Puig in the seventh and Luis Arráez started a double play in the eighth. Tied atop of the division for the first time since April 20, these two times play again tomorrow, with Odorizzi taking on the mound to face Adam Plutko. First pitch scheduled to 6:10 C.T. Postgame With Baldelli Coming soon. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

Box Score Pérez: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 60.2% strikes (41 of 68 pitches) Bullpen: 4.0 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Cruz (27) Multi-Hit Games: Cruz (3-for-4, HR, 5 RBI, BB), Kepler (2-for-3, 2 BB, RBI), Polanco (2-for-5), Rosario (2-for-5, RBI) Top 3 WPA: Cruz .394, Kepler .231, Polanco .211 Bottom 3 WPA: Pérez -.289, Dyson -.081, Gonzalez -.066 The Twins got five innings out of starting pitcher Martín Pérez, who also had a very low pitch count. But he couldn’t keep the Royals off the scoreboard, giving up three home runs and a total of five earned runs. That was the sixth time he allowed five or more runs in his last eleven starts. The bats continue their recent out-of-this-world run, as they have now scored an MLB-best 79 runs since the start of the Yankees series, on July 22. This offense has no chill Both teams exchanged punches early in this game. The Royals manufactured a run after All-Star outfielder Whit Merrifield singled on the third pitch he saw, stole second and was brought home by a two-out single by Jorge Soler. I’m sure you know that didn’t last long. Minnesota responded immediately, with identical aggressiveness - but more power. Max Kepler jumped on the second pitch he saw and hustled for a double. One batter later, Nelson Cruz made it clear that not starting during the Marlins series made no difference whatsoever. He blasted his 27th home run of the year into the second deck of left field. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1157448553557569538 The bats kept pounding and pounding. A couple more runs scored in the second, but, this time, with a more scarce resource. The destructive Twins offense has the 22nd walk rate in the majors, walking only 8% of the time. But Luis Arráez and Jason Castro drew two of them and both of them ended up haunting Royal starter Glenn Sparkman. The wonderkid scored on a sac fly from Ehire Adrianza, while Castro took advantage of a rare mistake by Alex Gordon, who couldn’t hold on to the ball after a sliding charge. Royals strike back Pérez’ first time through the order couldn’t have gone more smoothly. Second and third could hardly have been rougher. Kansas City had back-to-back two-run innings in the fourth and fifth. Hunter Dozier hit a leadoff home run and then the visitors started their own small-ball party, hitting two consecutive singles, a sac bunt and Soler scored on a balk. The Twins starter couldn’t regroup properly and gave up two solo home runs in the fifth (Cam Gallagher and Dozier, with his second), giving the Royals their second lead of the game. That was enough to end Pérez’ night at only 68 pitches. With yet another poor start, he now has a 5.53 ERA since the beginning of June, after posting 3.10 as a starter in April and May. Is there a reason to worry? Possibly, we’re not going to see much from him as a starter in October. The seesaw continues Once again it was time for the offense to rescue this game. And they got their end of the job done. After Kepler walked and Jorge Polanco singled, mighty Cruz doubled to center field (inches short of a homer!), scoring Max. On the following at-bat, Eddie Rosario scored Jorge on a sac fly, regaining the lead for the Twins. Lewis Thorpe came in to pitch the sixth and he didn’t have the best of starts. He gave up a leadoff double to Cheslor Cuthbert, who was brought home by a Humberto Arteaga double, tying the game. But the Aussie managed to cool down and finished pitching 1 2/3 innings. As a reliever in the majors this year, he’s now posting a 2.84 ERA, making his case for a playoff spot each day stronger. Is Cruz ever going to come back to Earth? Being named the AL Player of the Week on Monday might have inspired Cruz. Kepler and Polanco (who else?) reached safely on back-to-back plate appearances again and the Boomstick took care of business yet one more time. He doubled off the center field wall for his third hit of the night and fifth run batted in. There aren’t many more words left to describe what this man has been doing for the Twins this year. It’s astonishing. Miguel Sanó (single), Arráez (groundout) and Castro (single) also joined the party, each of them driving in a run, making it a five-run seventh. Dyson still not sharp, Romo saves it Sam Dyson made his second game in a Twins uniform, one day after his debut. Just like the game in Miami, he wasn’t even close to what he was in San Francisco and gave up three earned runs. Obviously that’s not ideal, but he did retired two batters (as opposed to none on Thursday) and threw 75% strikes (as opposed to 42.8% the day before). Rocco Baldelli brought in Sergio Romo to get the last out of the eighth in relief of Dyson, his third game of the week, and he earned his first save as a Twin, his eighteenth of the year. Romo, as usual, was fired up, displaying a lot of emotion every out he got. He struck out two batters in 1 1/3 inning of work, but also had the help of an amazing leaping grab by Polanco at short in the ninth. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

Right now, the Red Wings have the third worst ERA in the International League, with 5.34. They are also among the five pitching staffs who have allowed the most hits (900 in 840 2/3 innings) and have the fifth worst WHIP of the league, at 1.49. Most importantly, in several moments of the season in which the Twins needed to call somebody up to maybe put out a fire, the on call pitcher would kind of pour a bit more of gasoline in it, instead. During the first weeks of April, a couple of relief pitchers were called up to make their season debut in the majors and they were absolutely awful. I’m talking about Chase De Jong and Andrew Vasquez, who joined the team in New York for the Mets two-game series. They combined for only one inning pitched, with seven earned runs on three hits, five walks and one hit batter. That was a terrible first impression and none of them got called up again. De Jong is not even part of the organization anymore. From there, not many pitchers coming up from Rochester actually accomplished a very effective contribution to the Twins. The only exceptions that come to mind are Tyler Duffey, who’s a major presence in the current bullpen, and Matt Magill, who also helped a lot during his 28 games for the team, before allowing six unearned runs on four two-out hits against the Mets July 17. He was designated for assignment and then traded after that outing. Other than these two, the Rochester-to-Minnesota bullpen shuttle has been going back and forth. Fernando Romero, Kohl Stewart and Zack Littell are examples of pitchers who have come and gone after some disappointing outings in the majors. Romero, who made the transition between the rotation and the bullpen this year, has been called up three times, but didn’t manage to bring his ERA to lower than 5.63, currently parked at 7.88. Down in Rochester, it’s not looking phenomenal either, as it stands at 4.23 in 21 games. Stewart got called up four times and has done a decent job since migrating to the bullpen, holding a 2.45 ERA as a reliever, but he got sent back this week after allowing two earned runs on three hits against the Yankees on Tuesday. Littell also got called up three times and even though he had a great stretch of ten consecutive scoreless outings, he was optioned a couple of days after he blew a lead in the 5-4 loss against Oakland last Saturday. After that list of negative examples, one would think that there’s no way the Twins could rely on the arms coming from their New York affiliate. Then, four players came up and had their big chances to pitch out of the Twins bullpen this week, performing brilliantly. After Minnesota got rid of four relief pitchers in less than 10 days (Adalberto Mejía, Mike Morin, Matt Magill and Blake Parker), they saw no other option but to try and find the solution in Rochester. Even though virtually all fans hated that choice, wanting them to actually make trades to reinforce the bullpen, it actually worked. Before and during the Yankees series in Target Field, the Twins recalled Lewis Thorpe, Devin Smeltzer and Cody Stashak, the last one making his MLB debut. Sean Poppen got the call to pitch in the opener of the White Sox series on Thursday. The four young bloods performed incredibly, combining for 11 2/3 innings of work, allowing only two earned runs, one walk and striking out twelve batters. More importantly, they helped to take the burden off the seven remaining pitchers on the Twins bullpen, who were being overused in the days before. Other than Smeltzer and Poppen, no other reliever has pitched in the last two games. Which makes me wonder. Can the Twins realistically count on one of these arms for this year? Of course, all of us want the Twins front office to go out and acquire at least two new relievers via trade, but even if they did so, there would be two other spots to fill. Can one of those four aforementioned pitchers make the cut? Only four bullpen arms have been there for a long time now: Taylor Rogers, Trevor May, Ryne Harper and Tyler Duffey. It’s reasonable to assume the Twins won’t trade for four relievers, but, instead, will consider giving someone in the house a chance. If they acquire a starting pitcher via trade, then you could count one among Michael Pineda and Martín Pérez to transition to the pen, most likely Pérez, who has already done that in the beginning of the season. Still, who gets the last spot? Everything points out to former Indians great Cody Allen, who had an awful stint with the Angels early this year, got designated for assignment, and signed with the Twins on a minor league deal. So far in the minors for the Twins (Fort Myers and Rochester), he’s pitched nine innings and has a 2.00 ERA, with a .226 batting average against and striking out eight batters per nine. He has at least earned himself the right to be looked at before the deadline. If he can go back to his old self (and, so far, Wes Johnson and the coaching staff have done wonders on recovering pitchers), he could be a major lift for the bullpen. Last year the Twins pulled five trades after July 27, so we can expect a lot of action this year. But maybe someone from within could be a surprising help. What do you think? Is there anyone in Rochester who would make your team? Comment and let us know.

Box Score Pineda: 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 K, 64.5% strikes (62 of 96 pitches) Bullpen (Thorpe): 2.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K Home Runs: Kepler (27), Cruz (26) Multi-Hit Games: Cruz (3-for-4, HR, BB, 2 RBI), Sanó (2-for-4) Top 3 WPA: Pineda .192, Kepler .188, Cruz .122 A record-breaking 200th home run The best offense in baseball continues to destroy records. Max Kepler hit a three-run home run in the second inning, the 200th for the Twins in the season, which makes them the fastest team to reach that many dingers (103 games). The previous record belonged to the 2005 Texas Rangers, who hit their bicentennial homer in their 122nd game. Minnesota is now on pace to hit 316 homers in the year. Kepler also extended his home run leadership among German born players, now with 83 career bombas, five more than former Mariners infielder Mike Blowers. That homer was part of yet another relentless effort by Minnesota bats, who were able to score five runs in one inning. Young White Sox starter Dylan Cease gave up six hits in the second, including an RBI-single to Nelson Cruz, as well as a sac fly to Byron Buxton with the bases loaded. Curiously enough, such productive offense has the second worst batting average in the majors with the bases loaded, now with .193, and is one out of five teams in the league with one or no grand slams this season. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1154918261873610753 Pineda continues to rise Twins starter Michael Pineda once again had an outstanding outing, delivering the third quality start in his last four starts. For the first time since June 28, the Twins had two back-to-back seven inning outings from their starters. Overall it was an uneventful start for him, who only had issues during the third inning, in which he gave up a walk and three hits, one of which was a two-run homer to Adam Engel. In his last eight starts, Pineda’s now posted a 2.87 ERA, 9.0 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. He’s come up big for the Twins when they needed the most and is making a strong case to lock his rotation spot in an eventual post-season run, even if the club trade for rotation help. The bullpen also thanked Pineda for his outing, as the Twins were able to use only one reliever for the third straight game. Lewis Thorpe had yet another very good outing, pitching two scoreless innings. In that three-game span, the Twins relievers gave up only one earned run. Nelson Cruz still hot Nelson Cruz refuses to cool down. In the seventh inning he hit his 26th home run of the year, his tenth since the All-Star break. This was also the fifth consecutive game in which he homered, making him the first 39-year-old to do so since Barry Bonds, in 2004. The Boomstick is now on pace to hit over 40 home runs in the season. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1154941661224558592 The Twins are now 63-40 and maintain a two-game lead over Cleveland in the AL Central. The Indians beat the Royals. Minnesota goes for its first series win in two weeks tomorrow, as Martín Pérez faces Ivan Nova. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1154961304026664960 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

Right now, Minnesota has a 7-8 record in July (.467) and a 22-20 record (.523) since the start of June. This could be explained, among many other things, by the toughening of the schedule. Four of the five teams the Twins faced this month are above .500, but still, they are 7-6 in those games (.538). So, even though they aren’t playing as well as before, they are doing their homework against contenders. But, have other great teams gone through similar storms? Yes, they have. The 2018 Red Sox, who won 108 games during the regular season, had their worst monthly record in September, when they had a 15-11 record (.577). Besides, they had four three-game losing streaks, three of them in August and September. So far this year, the Twins have only had one of those and in spite of the terrible month they’re having, they are still on pace to win 99 games on the season, which would be a record 5% worse than the 2018 Boston’s. July isn’t over yet and the Twins have a season worst .467 record. But the 2017 Astros had a nightmarish month of August that was even worse than that. In that month, they had an 11-17 record (.393) that was very difficult to explain. The pitching staff who had the MLB’s 10th-best ERA (4.18) had an even better ERA during that month (4.00), which also ranked 10th in the majors. Their offense, which until that point had been the most run-producing one in the majors, scored the fourth least runs during that month. What’s odd here is that four of the position players who played at least 25 games during that month had at least .290 AVG and .719 OPS. That didn’t stop them from getting swept by struggling the Chicago White Sox and going 2-4 against division rival Texas Rangers, who ended the season below the .500 mark. Similarly, the 2016 Cubs faced a major drop in production during the regular season. Exactly like this year’s Twins, they struggled in the two middle months of the season. During the month of June, they had a 16-12 record (.571), only slightly better than the Twins last month (15-12, .556). On the following month, Chicago had an even worse result, as they had a record of 12-14 (.462), even worse than the current July for the Twins. Those Cubs offense scored the third most runs in the majors until June to 12 in July and went from an MLB-best ERA until June to the league’s seventh worst in July during 2016. All three former World Series champions made critical moves before the deadlines (non-waivers and waivers). Last year the Red Sox brought in Steve Pearce, Nathan Eovaldi and Ian Kinsler. The Astros in 2017 got superstar starter Justin Verlander in the end of August through waivers and also brought in Francisco Liriano earlier. Chicago strengthened their pitching staff before their 2016 post-season run by bringing in relievers Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery. The Twins are facing their most critical stretch of the season and there’s no doubt that the outcome of their season will be decided now. So far, most fans are frustrated with how long it’s taking for the front office to make moves to improve the team. But just like the aforementioned teams, the simple fact that they’ve had bad stretches doesn’t mean much. Make the right moves now, take advantage of the easier schedule during the final two months of the season and you have yourself a shot.

Box Score Odorizzi: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 63.6% strikes (56 of 88 pitches) Bullpen: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Gonzalez (11) Multi-Hit Games: Castro (2-for-2) Top 3 WPA: Gonzalez .136, Cruz .090, Castro .054 Bottom 3 WPA: Harper -.234, Cron -.217, Rosario -.093 The Twins offense once again shows signs of irregularity. After scoring the three runs early, they were dominated by A’s starter Chris Bassitt and the bullpen. Former Twin Liam Hendriks came in to pitch a five-out save, including a six-pitch eighth. The only highlight for Minnesota bats in the night was Luis Arraez’ hitting streak remaining alive, as he hit an infield single in his last at-bat. He’s now had a hit in 12 consecutive games, the second longest streak in baseball. Odorizzi had some unfinished business against the A’s. Last time he faced them, a blister on his right middle finger cut his start short, after only three innings. He gave up a season high five earned runs, four of which came off a grand slam. He was then put in the 10-day injured list, incidentally missing the first All-Star game of his career. The A's jumped on Odorizzi early. Marcus Semien hit a leadoff home run on the third pitch of the game, a bullet to left field. A couple of batters later Khris Davis grounded to center to score Mark Canha, giving Oakland a two-run lead. After that, Odo went on to pitch three shutout innings, despite not being as sharp as he has usually been this season, striking out only one batter. The offense made a good effort to back up their starter. Miguel Sanó drew a two-out walk in the second and on a Matt Olson fielding error near first base, after a Max Kepler ground ball, he was brought home to cut Oakland’s lead in half. On the following inning, Marwin Gonzalez hit a two-run bomb to give Minnesota the lead. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1152389720980230150 Odorizzi gave up a game-tying single in the fifth, which gave him a no-decision, as he didn’t come back to pitch the sixth. He remains unbeaten at home, where he is 6-0 in the year, now with a 2.56 ERA. He hasn’t lost a game at home since Aug. 24 of last year, against this same Oakland team. The Sire is down Uncharacteristically, Ryne Harper was punished by righties in his relief appearance. Before tonight’s game, right-handed hitters were being held by him to only .203 batting average. Facing the middle part of the A’s lineup, he gave up three hits, all against righties, that were enough to score a couple of runs. This was Harper’s 42nd game of the year, but only the third time he allowed more than one run in an outing. In his relief, the rest of the bullpen did a fine job, pitching three scoreless innings, with Tyler Duffey, Blake Parker and Zack Littell. The latter managed to pitch his tenth consecutive scoreless outing, despite giving up a one-out triple to Semien. He had a little help from a 3-2-3, inning-ending double play. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.

Box Score Pérez: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 72.2% strikes (60 of 83 pitches) Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 12 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K Home Runs: Cruz (18), Garver (15) Multi-Hit Games: Garver (2-for-3, HR) Top 3 WPA: Garver .144, Pérez .140, Cruz .070 Bottom 3 WPA: May -.461, Magill -.139, Arraez -.105 The Twins still have never beaten the Mets at Target Field. The only other time they have visited the Twins since the ballpark debut was in 2013, when the Mets also got the sweep. The last time Minnesota has won a home game against the Mets dates back to Jun. 2004. Of the 14 runs scored by New York in the afternoon, only half of them were earned. The Twins defense was a mess all over the place. The one error that sparkled the Mets late came off the hands of Eddie Rosario in the eighth inning. He dropped a routine fly ball that would have ended the inning with no runs scored. Instead, two runs scored on that play and the Mets went on to score four other times. Jake Cave also made a diving mistake with Ehire Adrianza pitching in the ninth. For the first time in the season, the Twins lost three consecutive games. They now own a 58-36 record, four and a half games ahead of the Indians. If Cleveland beats Detroit later today, that advantage will drop to four games, which would be their smallest lead since May 14th. Offense shows signs of improvement early The Twins offense was so good and dominant in the first portion of the season that a recent drop to no lower than tenth best in several metrics was enough to cause some overreaction among fans. For the first time this year, Twins bats started to be target of criticism by a few of them. That is especially true when the subject is runners in scoring position. Despite still being one of the best teams in the majors with RISP, the Twins productivity has fallen considerably in that area in the past month and a half. Whereas they have the sixth highest OPS with RISP overall in the season (.824), they came into this game with the ninth worst in the majors (.734) since the start of June. In last night’s game, the Twins struggled again, going 1-for-9 with RISP, with a total of ten men left on base. Things started to change a little bit when Max Kepler doubled off Jason Vargas in the second and was scored by Miguel Sanó on a single to left a couple of batters later. The Mets responded right away, with a one-out, solo home run by Amed Rosario in the top of the third, but the tied score didn’t last long. Nelson Cruz put the Twins back on top with his 18th homer of the year, a hanging one to the corner of the left field. He continued to make Vargas pay, hitting his sixth home run against him, the most he has against any MLB pitcher. https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1151564077195567105 Pérez sharp in long-awaited start With the All-Star break, Pérez didn’t pitch for eleven days, but that wasn’t a problem at all. Very economical and with a very sharp command, Pérez cruised through the first three innings, doing so with only 30 pitches, 25 of which were strikes. He also punched out four batters and gave up the one home run to Rosario. He started to slip a little bit in the fourth, as he loaded the bases with no outs, including a hit-by-pitch against Robinson Canó. Pete Alonso reached to lead off the inning on a throwing error by Miguel Sanó. He scored when Todd Frazier grounded into a double play later on, so the run was unearned. Pérez sort of pitched himself into another jam in the fifth, eventually allowing two runners to reach, but he got out of it. Pérez concluded his seventh quality start of the year, the first since Jun. 27th. Be careful, the Sauce is scorching Mitch Garver continues hot. Already leading all MLB catchers in SLG (.653), OPS (1,037) and wRC+ (168) before this game, the “GarvSauce” went deep for the 15th time in the bottom of the fifth inning to break the tie once again. He becomes the sixth Twin to reach that many home runs this season, putting Minnesota very near the MLB record for most players with at least 15 home runs in a season (nine). https://twitter.com/Twins/status/1151574483452514306 He also doubled in the eighth and scored afterwards. Garver continues to have one of the best seasons by a Twins catcher in club history. He’s now got higher SLG and ISO than 2009 Joe Mauer and is on pace to surpass his 23 home runs of that season, the most by any Twins catcher in history. Mets erupt against bullpen, sloppy defense Pérez was pulled after the sixth inning, even with a low pitch count. Trevor May took over and just like that, the Mets offense erupted. He gave up a couple of hits to start the inning and then, on a 0-2 count, he pitched an 81mph curve that was crushed for a three-run homer, giving New York the lead back. Things, then seemed under control in the eighth, as Matt Magill struck out two batters after giving up a leadoff walk. On a routine fly to left, Eddie Rosario made a rare mistake, dropping the ball after catching it, allowing two runs to score. Then Magill gave up three hits in a row, including an Alonso two-run bomb to the second deck, to make it 11-3. Adrianza took over the mound to finish the game and gave up three more runs in the last inning. Postgame With Baldelli https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/1151605989361115136 Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet Click here for a review of the number of pitches thrown by each member of the bullpen over the past five days.