nicksaviking
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Everything posted by nicksaviking
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So I'm 25 and single again? Yeah, I didn't make great decisions at 25 so I'm pretty confident the skills I would choose would revolve around picking up girls and drinking too much.
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I wouldn't be happy if they never trade him. However there are plenty more opportunities to do so and I'm OK waiting for the next opportunity if this is the best offer they have now. And I won't be resentful if the Twins never get a better offer for Dozier; the risk of losing this bird-in-the-hand doesn't look all that terrible to me. Even if ensuing offers are less, I'm not inclined to think they'll be significantly less though I'm more than willing to chance that they are.
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At this point, I strongly lean toward "no deal" and see if we get lucky at the AS break or next off season with full understanding that change in market is beyond the team's control. I'm not as high on De Leon as many others are, but who knows, perhaps my feelings will change and I'd take him straight up come March. But I'm not making that determination in the middle of January, I'd at least wait to consider my options until right before the season starts. If Dozier is the Dodgers preferred target then they'll come back to check in on him before they make any other irrevocable plans.
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Sure, we have a phone at home. We can still go out to play later, it's only January 13th.
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No, you're not. You're banking that the market changes for Dozier. We've long ago established that Dozier's value is not derived from his stats but instead demand. Demand is low, which means so is his value. Everyone always complained that Ryan sold off the players at their low point. Well through no fault of his own or the Twins, Dozier is at a low value point.
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One prospect has NEVER been enough for Dozier. A month ago nobody here would have thought so. Now it seems a lot of people have resigned themselves to accepting whatever the Dodgers deign to bestow upon the Twins. It's January 13th, if the Twins had taken this offer, we would have spent the next three months complaining about how little the team got. Also, if the Dodger fans that come to this site aren't upset about this proposed deal, that's a pretty big heads up that it's a bad deal.
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Interesting, I got that one too, but I've been getting that same one when I check my local paper online for several months.
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Then look at who may have been included by checking out their prospect lists: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/top-21-prospects-los-angeles-dodgers/ Aside from De Leon the Dodgers had three other starting pitchers in their top ten, Alvarez, Buehler and Stewart, all of whom are not currently being offered. One other guy, who is ranked 10th by Fangraphs, is going to be a relief pitcher. The Dodgers have four other arms in the 15-21 range but only one of them is above A ball. It doesn't matter if the offer was 1:1 or if the offer is De Leon and various other players, the other players either aren't starting pitchers, or are much, much lower quality starting pitchers. Which means the Twins aren't upgrading their rotation now or in the future by any more than De Leon. If that's fine by you, great, but please stop insisting that there's a big difference between a 1:1 deal or De Leon plus parts.
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He throws in the low 90's without a strong breaking pitch and he's a flyball pitcher. That doesn't look like a high ceiling guy to me. He looks like he's a high floor guy due to his control.
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Also, it's only the middle of January. Twenty-five man rosters aren't set for two and a half months.
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2016-2017 Vikings Offseason Thread
nicksaviking replied to TheLeviathan's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
I think they are, they are just playing in two different stadiums until the Rams stadium is built. The Chargers will be renting from the Rams is my understanding. Maybe scheduling at Memorial Stadium doesn't quite work for two NFL teams in addition to the Trojans currently. Or maybe USC said they'd prefer not to have two NFL teams tearing up their field as the turf would never get a week off to rejuvenate. -
2016-2017 Vikings Offseason Thread
nicksaviking replied to TheLeviathan's topic in Minnesota Vikings Talk
Yeah for marketing purposes, as in, "Hey, who here likes the Dodgers?! Well you're going to love us because we're basically the football Dodgers! Do you guys like us now? Wait, do you want us to actually change our name to the Football Dodgers? I think that name kind of sounds like we're the kid in school who is too afraid to catch the ball, but if you guys super promise to support us and not the Rams, we'll do it!" -
Yes, yes he does need to say the idea came from a source, even if unnamed, unless he wants to construe the idea as his. Anyone who's stayed awake for even half of a journalism course could tell you that. That's not how journalism works. That's how really terrible social media works. That's how the Fake News epidemic works, but that's not how journalists work.
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No one's asking for Urias and the reason the Twins are asking for other quality pieces is because De Leon is not that kind of guy either.
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So they should only target can't miss players? Those guys generally aren't available. Or you don't think it's possible that the Twins aren't completely confident in De Leon and told the Dodgers that to offset the risk the Dodgers are going to have to give up another good prospect? Because that's what it sounds like, and that sounds reasonable. The Twins absolutely positively should not be confident that De Leon or any prospect is a lock to be a good player.
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Why would the Twins think he is pretty much a lock to be a good SP? Nobody should think that about any pitching prospect. If that were true it would be De Leon, not Urias who was untouchable.
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De Leon is no slouch and I never said he's without value, but he came out of nowhere a year ago. Also, yes it's unfair but pitchers age does matter, velocity typically starts decreasing in the mid 20's. But that's not even the biggest concern, for a top prospect, I want a good breaking ball. I don't see a righty with a low 90's FB striking out too many guys with a change up as his out pitch; not at the MLB level and particularly not in the AL. Maybe if he was a lefty.
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If he didn't state in his piece that the Dodgers told him they were concerned that Dozier came from a small market then it is implied that he, Rosenthal believes it's an issue. He didn't say, "A Dodgers source says...." Throwing out unsourced, unverified and undocumented nonsense like that is what convinces nutjobs to go shoot up pizza joints trying to hunt imaginary peodiphiles. If that's the kind of reporter he wants to be these days he should make clear that he's just a blogger.
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Alvarez isn't and has never been on the table. And De Leon is not a top 5-10 prospect, not to me anyway. He's a 24-year-old with a low to mid 90's FB and not much of a breaking pitch. On the 'Exciting Twins Pitching Prospects Scale' I give him a solid Gibson. He's way ahead of Blackburn but miles behind Liriano. But I will say perhaps I underestimated some of our fans' level of excitement about him. If some folks think he's in the same category as Garrit Cole, Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey I get the excitement and the desire to get him.
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I agree these guys aren't junk and actually calling players "junk" is against posting policy, so let's cut that out Twins fans if it's happening. However after Urias, Bellinger, Alvarez, De Leon, Stewart and let's throw in Verdugo, there's not too many guys that are overly exciting from a trading team's perspective. A corner guy like Calhoun and a guy surely to be a reliever in Sheffield aren't going to get anyone too anxious. Maybe these teams just don't match up, but De Leon plus organizational guys ranked 9-10 or later isn't going to get it done and I think most people detached from the situation would agree it's not enough.
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So accepting the Dodgers extreme lowball offer is the way to show everyone they aren't afraid to take risks? Seems like calling the Dodgers bluff takes more guts. I am really surprised how many people think the Twins should take this offer, it's just so lopsided. What if the offer was only Stewart and throw in pieces?
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I wouldn't think they'd have it any different than Japanese or Dominican players.
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I agree, this shouldn't impact players. It's a good talker for the sports bar though, I'll relocate it there.
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Yes but so are things like floor vs ceiling. The Twins need an ace, they need high ceiling guys. Seems to me De Leon is valued more on his high floor. Not all top 20 prospects are the same.
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The odds that the Twins get offered a better deal later are less than 10%? It's unlikely, but not that unlikely.
