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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    I hope the Twins do get some solid relief free agents this off season, but whether they work out or not is maybe 50/50. For the most part these guys are terribly unreliable year to year; if they were reliable, they’d probably be starters. Anyway, I wouldn’t use last year’s numbers to make my decision on these guys. I’d evaluate velocity, pitch usage and other peripherals, but I wouldn’t trust these guys to repeat what they did in 2021 any more than I’d trust a burrito I bought at a gas station.
  2. nicksaviking
    He definitely wouldn't be the worst free agent they could sign. But there will be better fits so a reunion just seems like it would be for sentimentality sake. I'd probably be open to keeping the bench coach job warm for him when he's ready for his second career though.
  3. nicksaviking
    Time will tell for sure, but I always get the impression that when it comes to the shortstop position, most pundits and fans only see the players' defense as a pass/fail proposition. But it isn't black or white, there's plenty of scenarios where a below average defender is acceptable. I mean statistically, half of the starting shortstops in the league are going to be below average. No one wants Jorge Polanco as a starting shortstop, but the team did win 100 freakin' games with him at the position. It's not ideal but it's not like it's going to destroy the season. Obviously, aim for higher quality defense than Polanco, but I don't want the team to get so caught up in the defensive side of things that they don't regularly put the optimal offense into the lineup.
  4. nicksaviking
    Semien has been better than Baez each of the past three years. Much, much better. Semein has actually been the best SS in the league by fWAR since 2019, which includes his subpar 2020 campaign. Plus, Semien basically never misses a game.
  5. nicksaviking
    I honestly think the fit is pretty close to backwards from what is listed. Baez and Story strike out a heck of a lot. I'd sign them if the others are unavailable, but I'd be way more hesitant on those two. Heck, a month from now I might be completely against any kind of long term deal for Baez. He's definitely last on my wish list of this group; he's very inconsistent, likely because of the strikeout problem and his below average ability to get on base. His career .307 OBP seems destined to make a fanbase frustrated. Edit: No need to ponder it over for a month. I've talked myself out of wanting anything to do with a big contract for Baez.
  6. nicksaviking
    Most of these guys will cost a lot, but as far as their contracts becoming an issue for the team? The risk is low. Outside of Buxton, there really don't seem to be any internal players who have a chance at needing a big time extension in the next half decade. And if you'd prefer to spend money on OTHER free agents, you'll be waiting a couple of years. The 2022-23 class looks brutal. Berrios is probably the headline FA pitcher right now. Bogaerts and Turner are FA, but even if they make it to free agency, bidding on two SS instead of five is going to be an even bigger challenge. I expect the Twins to seriously chase these guys, but since it takes both parties to want to make a deal, they can't just lock on to one of them.
  7. nicksaviking
    I agree, but abiding by Point 1 and Point 2 together will almost certainly mean this team will not be contending next year. They need to find starters, and we simply cannot expect to them be a championship caliber team if they are starting three rookies. Absolutely pitch the young guys, but don't expect them to hit the ground running.
  8. nicksaviking
    If I’m honest, my first thought was “Ugh, just get the real prospects up already.” Then I read Betsy Helfand’s piece and this one, cried a bit and realized I still love this game.
  9. nicksaviking
    Risky or not risky, the Twins almost always have done free agency the same way. We have X amount of dollars to spend and plan to use it on free agents to fill xxxxxx roles. How about just once, they try something different. We have X amount of dollars to spend and plan to use it on Xxx. We will fill the remaining holes with the internal options even if they are untested. Internal options, who let's be frank, may not pan out, but likely are no more risky than the desperate aging vets we'd end up singing in late January anyway.
  10. nicksaviking
    I don't disagree with your take on signing one long term asset and developing the young pitchers to see what we have. But they've been signing multiple one-year, stop-gap starters for two years now; they should have had a blueprint to putting together a long-term sustainable rotation at least since 2019. Winging it for the last several years, particularly years they were winning the division seems unorganized and reckless.
  11. nicksaviking
    Right, in addition to giving out regrettable contracts for average to below average pitchers, the danger with trying to immediately fix the awful rotation into a contending rotation would be once again not developing their own young pitchers. Giolito and Cease were absolutely brutal early in their careers. Are the Twins expecting their top young arms to hit the ground running? They'd be foolish to assume that will be the case. But you aren't going to be a contender if you're giving 20-30 starts to a couple of young guys who put up Giolito's 2018, Cease's 2019 or Jose Berrios' 2016 seasons. They organization is going set the club back years if they do 2022 wrong out of desperation.
  12. nicksaviking
    Yeah, they certainly need to START to build a rotation next year, but being a real contender? Not likely. I mean has anyone looked at Chicago's rotation? They can't match up with that in one offseason. This is going to require long-term planning, which I'm not sure is even in the blueprint stage yet.
  13. nicksaviking
    I really hope it's Petty. The Twins just need that kind of power arm. They've been flat out awful finding and developing them, but they have to continue to go to the well in search of front line starters. Still, I'll bet Noah Miller. Not sure why but I think he'll start turning heads soon. Also, I don't think Lewis should be written off for next season. While the Twins have not figured out how to manage the pitching injuries, their last two high end offensive prospects to have TJ surgery while in the minors, still debuted the following year. I know Kirilloff didn't appear until the playoffs, but that's still pretty good considering he went from AA to TJ surgery then to the majors without any additional MiLB season. Sano debuted in the majors the July after recovering from his procedure; he also skipped AAA prior to his initial call up.
  14. nicksaviking
    It's always exciting to see the Twins grab these young athletes. The organization was on a real roll with international free agents about a decade ago; they used to make up a huge part of the Twins prospect lists and they seemed to pan out more often than the states-side players. That pipeline has pretty much dried up since then though. I guess Bill Smith can put a feather in his cap in that regard.
  15. nicksaviking
    Fantastic article. Thanks for this great information.
  16. nicksaviking
    Well I always assumed the Twins were reluctant to give out long term free agent deals because they were planning on giving out long term free agent deals to Berrios and Buxton. So since that doesn’t appear to be in the cards, there’s seriously no reason they shouldn’t chase Seager, Correa, Semien, Story or Baez.
  17. nicksaviking
    It's not mob thinking, it's the acceptance of science. The earth is also round and evolution is real. Just because rational people are loudly and vehemently telling the brainwashed to wake up, doesn't make them a mob.
  18. nicksaviking
    ***Moderator Note*** We've been over this before here at TD. Covid is dangerous and real, the vaccine is is needed and in society's best interest. That's not an opinion, it's a fact. This is TD's stance and the owners of the site have no desire for their website to linked to any other crackpot agendas about this very real and serious topic. Stay on topic. If your feelings on the matter cannot be represented due to this stance, sorry, there are plenty of other sites for you to post those takes.
  19. nicksaviking
    But if the Twins are subpar at developing pitchers don't you think they would be compelled to be better than par in free agency to make up for it? Or are the fans expected to just shrug their shoulders and accept that they put in an average effort? Trading for pitchers isn't the same animal as signing free agents either. I don't understand your last point. Trading for Kenta Maeda and Jake Odorizzi are two of the best moves the front office has made.
  20. nicksaviking
    I know there are many who don't like the analytic approach, but I think many around here, if not most, appreciate the attempt at forward thinking. But it's not enough to have that approach, you still have to produce. That's why I keep asking for a distinction between job responsibilities. I like the theoretical game plan. Is it possible that Falvey has instituted a good framework and infrastructure while Thad Levine has botched the execution?
  21. nicksaviking
    I think if Rocco was basing things strictly off numbers, he wouldn't be tentative. Robots are decisive, Rocco isn't. He's winging it even if he doesn't think he is. Agree that Burrows as a starter is a dumb call. Rogers is a lefty though and Colome had a sub 1.00 ERA last year, co-closers wasn't a dumb call to start the year. Arraez is also a one-trick pony slap hitter, he's not the best hitter. Even the much maligned Miguel Sano has almost caught up to him in OPS. These aren't black and white issues, which means there aren't black and white answers. But the decisions you don't like, who is making them? Are you unhappy with what Levine is doing? Or with what Falvey is doing. They need to be distinguished. This isn't some kind of collective automaton regardless of what people want to think. If SPECTRE has a hierarchy and delegated responsibilities, certainly the Twins do as well.
  22. nicksaviking
    I actually don't think they are micromanaging in-game stuff as much as everyone suspects. I think Baldelli THINKS he's following the basic guidelines, but I think there's many situations where he's way off of what the analytics would suggest. I bet there's lots of decisions he makes where the front office just scratches their heads.
  23. nicksaviking
    Is it possible that one of Thad Lavine and Derek Falvey is good at their job and maybe one isn't? I think we really need to know who does what. Who's in charge of negotiating contracts? Who's in charge of prioritizing free agents? Does Deron Johnson have full draft autonomy? I assume not so how's that dynamic work? I assume Falvey is in charge of implementing all the new statistical analysis to the organization? Who is making the decisions about which guys are called up from Rochester? Who's managing the 40-man roster? Who's managing the 26-man roster? Who's managing the payroll? Who's making the call on the coaching staff (and lack of bench coach)? Keeping this stuff vague probably helps insulate them from some blame, but these are two different people with two different jobs, they aren't, you know, actual Twins.
  24. nicksaviking
    Not Stroman, this team needs to be better at missing bats, not worse. But it's these kinds of pitchers that are so often a trap. You have to be sure that they've turned the corner and are going to be a #1. Most of these guys are inconsistent year-to-year and not suited to being a long-term top of the rotation arms. But then they come along and put together a nice stretch prior to becoming free agents and get the teams that can't typically afford the 100M pitchers pay these way more than they're worth. The bottom line is, these guys are more than likely going to be #3 type pitchers but because they end up being the mid market teams prize off season acquisition, they'll be treated like a #1. If you don't already have a #1 and #2 on staff, you're already putting yourself behind the 8 ball matching up against teams that have solid rotations, particularly come playoff time. I mean if you really think Ray or Syndergaard or Gausman or Rodriguez have Scherzer'ed themsleves into a stud pitcher, sure. But the Nolasco/Hughes/Santana situation can't happen again.
  25. nicksaviking
    Good analysis. I actually like that Shoemaker spoke up; seeing former Twins go on to success elsewhere always makes me wish we had local reporters who'd go and ask, "What has changed?" But in this case, Shoemaker was pretty vague and it didn't make a whole lot of sense. As Matthew's article says, it's doubtful the Twins told Shoemaker to groove his fastballs down the middle of the plate, which is clearly his main issue. My guess is if there's an issue, it's the sequencing of pitches that he didn't like. His slider and four-seamer usage is up and his sinker usage is down. This would track too as they cut Martin Perez's sinker usage in half, Kyle Gibson's sinker usage dropped in favor of more four-seamers when the new front office took over and JA Happ's usage of those pitches saw similar changes as well. Of course, if the front office doesn't prefer sinkerballers, perhaps it would be more prudent to not sign them, instead of signing them and then asking them to change?
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