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nicksaviking

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Everything posted by nicksaviking

  1. nicksaviking
    I don't think Ohtani is getting moved. It would take a ransom to get him, and I'd guess the Angels are going to push harder than any other team to retain him. Soto is interesting and I'd love to have him, but unless San Diego's inevitable fire sale is happening this upcoming offseason, I'd guess they're going to give their 'all in' approach one last shot next year if they come up short again this year. Goldschmidt and his position make the most sense as any new big bat that comes in, should come in at the expense of the tanking vets. Kirilloff taking a Kepler/Gallo OF spot would work for me. That no-trade clause may be an issue though. Players who go to St. Louis, tend to stay in St. Louis as long as it's their call.
  2. nicksaviking
    ***Moderator Note*** Posts have been removed to better keep this thread on topic. Stick to Kepler's merits, not other posters'.
  3. nicksaviking
    You're likely right, Smith probably doesn't add to the win total this year. Figured the team may have landed a draft pick for him, but likely not a high one, and based on what we've seen thus far, it's possible he'd have gotten no draft pick at all. The QB positions is always where the wins and losses are going to add up.
  4. nicksaviking
    Cousins' contract would have looked like a bargain prior to the draft, but now teams are mostly set at QB, so that bridge is likely burned unless a contender loses their QB in training camp. I think the Vikings will be largely average, but could/should still win the division. Detroit should be good, but I mean, it's Detroit so odds are they'll shoot themselves in the foot as is tradition.
  5. nicksaviking
    Which means the stratification of those results should not be infinite, it should be a fixed scale, something like 1-10. Not -30 through+60 which will wildly swing the overall fWAR. Plus, I can almost certainly explain the large changes in Cuddyer's numbers and it's less to do with chances. Cuddyer played 539 innings in RF in 2010 and 639 in 2011, yet he was an exponentially better right fielder in 2011. Why? In 2010, the Twins thought balls bouncing off of their new RF wall would shoot back to the infield, so Cuddyer played shallow, but it turned out the balls didn't bounce that way. In 2011, Cuddyer played deeper as right field is such a small area to cover. According to Fangraphs, Jason Kubel also saw a 100% defensive improvement playing RF from 2010 to 2011. It's also certainly why Torii Hunter improved upon leaving the giant Comerica Park, and why right fielders in general have not been an issue at Target Field (apologies Miguel Sano). Yet the equation doesn't seem to be able to factor in managerial or some ball park inclinations. Which should go without saying, has no bearing on the quality of the defender.
  6. nicksaviking
    Yeah, I agree. Sorry but fWAR is unreliable and inconsistent. Just using Twins outfielders as examples; how is it possible Michael Cuddyer could have a -25.8 defensive adjustment in 2010 then only a -8.3 in 2011, then go to Colorado and have a -3.7 adjustment? How did 39-year-old Torii Hunter go from having a -14.5 adjustment and being considered amongst the worst fielders in the league in Detroit come to Minnesota and have a -3.3 adjustment, while also still being considered amongst the worst fielders in the league?
  7. nicksaviking
    Yeah, taking a step back to build a real contender was my hope all along. But they’re putting themselves in purgatory because they’re only taking a half step back. If they were going to do this approach, they should have traded Cousins and Smith. They likely aren’t getting a franchise QB drafting 14th next year.
  8. nicksaviking
    Makes me think you didn't read the article. Ash quoted the author verbatim.
  9. nicksaviking
    Yeah, I never liked the experience > unproven talent angle. I was thrilled with the Correa signing (still am, it was always partially about the principle of making a serious commitment anyway), but rolled my eyes at the other free agents. To be fair, the offensive free agents available this year were atrocious, but I didn't like the sign-guys-just-to-sign guys or fill the roster with defensive first players approach. If the bats they signed after Correa were the best they could do, they should have stood pat other than a nice filler piece or two. (Farmer and a Taylor OR a Gallo for the bench) Every sustained competitive team this organization has ever built, was built almost exclusively of home-grown players. They should have thrown the tykes in the deep end at the beginning of the season to see which ones would swim. And then at midseason, it would have been easier to see where the holes actually are. We haven't a clue at this point because we've been wasting time with a bunch of guys who'll still be free agents when spring training opens next year.
  10. nicksaviking
    Yeah, they're offensively frustrating, but winning as much or more than most of us expected. The starters' effectiveness has been a welcome change. I'm always open to trades, but I'm at the point that it should come at the expense of the players I don't want to watch swing a bat anymore. Though admittedly, I'm bidding my time until natural selection comes and rips San Diego's throat out. That's going to be a bonkers fire sale which ever year they finally waive the white flag.
  11. nicksaviking
    I agree that last year's deal to get Mahle and Lopez were the right moves because they could be controlled this year too. And those two should have been good. But I don't know about buying a hitter this year at the deadline. Do they need hitters? Yes, clearly. But every time they bring in a shiny new vet, they block the young hitters who repeatedly show they were the better option all along. I think the ONLY shot this team has, and I don't think they have a real shot this year at all, is to say screw it, and let the young guys take Kepler, Vazquez, Gallo, Solano, Castro and maybe even Polanco's jobs. They need more than Kirilloff, Lewis and Jeffers to step up, they're going to need a solid five or so young guys to take charge and embarrass the vets, and obviously that's a long shot. But I don't see bringing in more vets as the answer. And I'm with MLR. I don't think winning a weak division makes you more likely to win the World Series. I think you need to be an actual good team. I think an iffy WC team from a tough division is way more likely to win it all.
  12. nicksaviking
    To be fair, Narvaez and his more modest deal would have meant the Twins likely turned to Jeffers sooner. Even without a Narvaez injury.
  13. nicksaviking
    I know it was jokey, but I was happy for Rosario, and I'd be happy for Kepler too. I'm not sure if a change of scenery will turn Kepler's career around, but we've seen one good season in Minnesota vs seven under-achieving seasons. I think we have a large enough sample size to make the proper call on this one.
  14. nicksaviking
    ****Moderator Note****** No, many of our fanbase will latch on to any crumb to complain about because they're miserable, irrational people who think the internet is only here for them to air their grievances to try to make others as miserable as they are. We're complaining about a 29-year-old reliever? The Twins have found more flash in the pan bullpen arms than Baltimore recently. Way more. Boo hoo, the Twins haven't figured out the Rays secret sauce, just like the other 28 teams in the league. Enough. If all you're going to do is bellyache about the Twins, find another site to do it on. This is not the site for you. Everyone has been warned enough about the tone of this site. Stop the incessant complaining, or stop posting.
  15. nicksaviking
    Seems to me Pressly flipped the switch with the Twins, which is why they got two well-regarded prospects for a reliever with only a year and a half of control left. If anything, I think one could call into question the evaluation of the prospects (Alcala and Celestino).
  16. nicksaviking
    Lightning-in-a-bottle relievers happen all the time. I don't think there is anything deficient with the Twins here, most teams find at least one a year and lose one or two as well. Except for the Rays, they find about five a year.
  17. nicksaviking
    Encouraging stuff, the young guys are the only hope of saving this team from offensive malaise. I do love Will Holland's photo and bio in the link above too! Must have went to one of those old timey photo booths you see in re-created pioneer villages.
  18. nicksaviking
    Hopefully Jeffers does to Vazquez what Mitch Garver did to Jason Castro. I was never against the signing, but I still can’t understand why fans always clamor for glove-first players. We’ve seen this play out dozens of times; pitchforks come out when the bats don’t produce. Plus defenders only look good on paper. If they don’t hit, their leash gets short.
  19. nicksaviking
    Seems to me infielders get hurt on defense way more often than outfielders.
  20. nicksaviking
    I don't like the idea that CF is too dangerous of a position for the team's best offensive players. I don't want this organization to just put Michael Taylor types out there because they're offensively expendable. Building a formidable lineup includes having a centerfielder who can hit. Will we ever be able to have a top bat play CF? Or is it just Buxton and Lewis?
  21. nicksaviking
    Just like everyone else, I can't make sense of the Pagan stuff. However, since the front office took over, they went from a slap-hitting club, to setting records for HR, to focusing on higher OBP players and seemingly back to whatever this un-labelable circus is that we see now. The rotation went from deadball-era pitch-to-contact arms to extreme flyball pitchers, to extremely ineffective short starts then to strikeout arms among the league leaders in innings pitched. Defensively, they went from a fairly solid defensive team for two decades, then said, 'screw the errors, give me HRs' and now to, 'screw the offense, give me flexible players with + gloves'. So, are they not admitting a mistake on Pagan? Yeah, maybe. But basically everything else they're doing? Clearly not, they change their whole philosophy pretty much every season.
  22. nicksaviking
    Chicago has the most cap space, he makes some sense there. But he's not cheap and that's the point. Your RB room is already getting a bit crowded too. Herbert and the rookie Johnson both are intriguing and D'Onta Foreman was a vastly undervalued free agent RB. He's always looked good when starting, and while he's older, he hardly has any miles on his tires.
  23. nicksaviking
    Rumor is they'll cut him loose and not trade him, though it sounded like there was interest from other teams, even if Dalvin had other options in mind. And it also sounded like there was more interest than just the Browns, but that's where Smith wanted to go. The Vikings seem to have some leverage in these dealings, but it seems like they are going out of their way to be accommodating. I'd like the better draft picks (or any draft picks), but with that survey coming out that the Vikings were the organization that received the top marks in player satisfaction, there's some league-wide equity to be built continuing on that path I suppose.
  24. nicksaviking
    Yeah, just like every OSU QB. The NFL is littered with Buckeye passing success stories. I get that Chicago wants to go the Hurts and Jackson route with Fields, as those two are sub-par passers, but Fields is on a completely different level. The Vikings need to tear it down and rebuild, but at least they haven't hitched their wagon to the wrong young QB. That always sets you back years. Not saying the Vikings won't do that next year too.
  25. nicksaviking
    I know Castillo was the biggest name available, but based on his numbers away from Cincinnati, Mahle was the guy I wanted most. I wanted nothing to do with Montas. Clearly I was wrong about Mahle, but I don't think I was the only one who felt that way. I don't think the problem was that they didn't aim high enough. Obviously there is a problem though. I like to roll the dice in my fantasy leagues with talented but injury prone guys, but clearly that's not a forever path in the real world. Probably need a different mentality than taking minimal monetary risks while dirking beer and talking trash with your buddies.
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